re: Bill Connelly Ranks the SEC (SBNation)

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I don't get why Auburn is Tier 2 . . .

They have the same coach (8-5, 7-6, & 8-5 the last three years)

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Same HC who is the second most accomplished in the conference.
But added a new OC to address the biggest issue that has led to a couple disappointing seasons and held the team back the past couple of years (the passing game). A relatively inexperienced coach who's already shown talent is now showing growth and maturation. That's a big deal.

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an inexperienced QB

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A highly talented QB with an NFL caliber arm. Inexperienced, but has shown a lot in his experience (talent, maturity, poise, good decision making)

Bama nearly won a NC last season with a true freshman QB last season. And Hurts had much less experience surrounding him on his offense to help him out than Stidham will have at AU this season.
And the season before Bama did win a NC with a QB who was also less experienced than Stidham, and less talented as well.

Experience at QB is nice, but it's not an automatic killer of otherwise championship caliber teams.

And if it doesn't work out with Stidham, that's okay because we have the best backup in the SEC. A QB who is experienced. White may not have an NFL arm like Stidham, but he's proven himself to be very accurate and highly efficient. And by all accounts has improved a good deal over the off-season himself. He can be a game manager and less us to wins. He's a lot like McElroy was at Bama.

And speaking of experience, our OL has over 100 combined starts (2nd most in the SEC by a small margin). And the most talented in the SEC going by recruiting rankings.

Return two very good, experienced, and proven RBs to take pressure of the inexperienced QB. One of whom is a workhorse who can carry the team if need be.

WRs are a parallel to Stidham. Inexperienced, but it's a unit that's absolutely loaded with talent. Huge upgrade over last season. Multiple pass catchers with NFL talent. The most talented group at AU since at least 2004. I think even more so, but they'll have to prove it.

Between the new OC with an Air Raid background, and the big-time talent upgrades in Stidham and the WRs... the passing game will be very fun to watch. Very interesting to keep an eye on at least....
And if it doesn't work out like planned through the air, go back to what's proven to work, Malzahn's rushing offense. Feed Pettway and Kerryon.

This team was easily on pace for 10 wins with a bowl win before injuries derailed that. And showed potential for even more without some coaching mistakes in the first few weeks. With more depth that is high quality (and more overall talent), and lessons presumably learned on the coaching end, there's no reason to think we can't do it this season.

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and the same defense (28th nationally). 

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7th in scoring, which is what really matters.

And you just got done knocking the QB for inexperience... well here's your experience. Return 9/11 starters and the two replacements are equally as talented. Tons of talent and depth.
DL, LB, and DB units are all ranked in the top 3 or 4 in the SEC.
Year 2 under the DC.

No reason to think the defense won't improve.

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A&M and LSU have better records over the last three years and just as much talent.

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Auburn is 2-1 against LSU the last 3 years.

And A&M is only 1 game better over that period, LSU only 2 games better, so its not like there's a huge gap

Auburn has also finished ahead of A&M in the SEC 2 of those 3 years and has the exact same overall SEC record.

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It is all really based on one inexperienced QB? Nothing else?

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TL;DR -

Nope