re: How much influence do past games/trends have on this season?

I would go with a C. As an example after two seasons of having a defense that can generously be described as lackluster (historically bad in some regards) Arkansas made the shift to a new DC and a 3-4 look.

I think Bert is a 4-3 guy who likes getting pressure with the linemen but the results have steered him towards going with a 3-4 look given then tendency of teams to spread the ball out.

It is understandable though, the 4-3 Bert prefers gives conventional offenses the fits, witness the trouble Bama had for a couple of seasons against the defense (even though they won). But no one outside us and LSU are running conventional offenses right now.

You have to adapt to changing trends or you will die on the vine.