I actually think this is a pretty good guess. The BIG 10 ought to beat up on each other pretty bad..

Ohio State, Michigan, and Michigan State all play one another, plus they all play some big-time OOC games. Ohio State has to play @ Oklahoma in Week 3. Michigan State plays @ Notre Dame the very same week. And though Michigan's OOC schedule is relatively easy, they do catch both Wisconsin and Iowa from the other division, and those two ought to be the best teams on that other side.

I don't think any BIG 10 team has the talent to go through those schedules unscathed.

The PAC10 just seems a bit weak. USC probably has the best talent, but they are young and have a new HC. Plus they play Alabama OOC, and they somehow catch the 3 best teams from the PAC12 North... Stanford, Oregon, and Washington. I don't see them getting through that schedule with less than 2 or 3 losses.

While Oregon, Washington, and Washington State could all mount pretty decent teams this year, I just don't think any of those three have the talent to seriously contend for a National Title.

So I think Phil Steele is correct... it's going to come down to the following programs:

Florida State & Clemson from the ACC

Alabama, LSU, & Tennessee from the SEC

BIG 12 Champion

I think with all the turmoil at Baylor, Oklahoma looks to be the best team out of the BIG 12.