re: Updated SEC Basketball Standings; plus mid-week schedule

quote:

---

Kentucky moves into sole possession of first place in the conference, thanks to their win and LSU's loss. The Wildcats clearly look like the best team in the SEC, but their last 5 games are against teams who are either in the NCAA Tournament, or on the tournament bubble; starting with what might be the game of the year in the SEC against A&M this Saturday. The Aggies have the big men to match-up well with Kentucky, so it should be an interesting game.

As tough as Kentucky's schedule is down the stretch, Texas A&M's is pretty much the opposite. After Saturday's big game against the Wildcats, the Aggies play 4 games in which they will be decent-sized favorites. If they can win Saturday, they have a very good shot to share the conference title (likely with Kentucky). If they lose, they're probably out of the conference title race.

Alabama has now won 5 in a row with a big road win over LSU Wednesday night. Although some outlets still have Alabama as a bubble team, their résumé certainly seems good enough to have the Tide safely in the tournament. As long as they win their remaining home games, they should be fine. If they trip up at home once, and lose both of their remaining road games, then they might have to do some work in the SEC Tournament. Either way, Alabama fans have to be extremely happy with the position of their team. Avery Johnson has done a wonderful job.

As big as that win was for Alabama, you could argue it was an even bigger loss for LSU. At this point in the season, whether you are fighting for the conference title or building your NCAA Tournament résumé, you need to hold serve at home. The Tigers lacked effort, shot a poor percentage, and might have placed themselves on the outside looking in of the tournament bubble. Now, LSU has two road games in tough venues, before coming home to face Florida. At worst, they need a 2-1 stretch in these games. A likely loss looming in Lexington in the season finale means the Tigers are probably looking at a 12-6 conference finish. That means they might need a couple of wins in the SEC Tournament to grab a spot in the dance.

Coming off a bad loss to Missouri, South Carolina has now lost two in a row. However, they still have a pretty manageable schedule down the stretch. The Gamecocks need a win at home against Florida Saturday to stop the bleeding, but also to get their third top-50 RPI win on their tournament résumé. As long as they don't collapse down the stretch, South Carolina is pretty safely in the NCAA Tournament.

Florida is in the same boat as South Carolina. As long as they can avoid a late season collapse, they'll be in the tournament field. The only difference is that the Gators have a much tougher finish to the season, based on the schedule. They will be an underdog in three of their next four games (@SCAR, @LSU, vs. UK), but if they can just win their remaining home games (besides Kentucky), they should be fine. Basically, if you're an SEC team right now, you need to win all of your home games unless you're playing Kentucky.

Vanderbilt has put themselves behind the 8-ball after their buzzer-beating loss at Mississippi State. The Commodores might not be able to afford any more losses. If they win their next 4 games, including two top-50 wins against Florida and Kentucky, they can probably afford to lose their season finale at Texas A&M. Remember, the bubble is very weak, and Vanderbilt still has an RPI hovering around 60. However, even at that point, they might need a couple more top-50 wins in the SEC Tournament to assure their position in the NCAA Tournament field.

With a 1-7 record against top-50 teams, Georgia probably has to win their last 5 games in conference play and finish the regular season at 19-10 to feel like they have any shot at the NCAA Tournament. That would mean wins over Vanderbilt, South Carolina, and Alabama to close the season.

Ole Miss has an identical 1-7 record against top-50 teams, but they have no games left against quality opponents. Even if they do win out, I'm not sure that it will turn anyone's head on the committee. They'd likely have to win their remaining regular season games, and make a deep run in the SEC Tournament to have a chance.

At this point, every other team in the SEC would probably need to win the conference tournament in order to punch a ticket to the NCAA Tournament.

---