re: CMR is definitely at a crossroads

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Even though he averages 9.7 wins a year? (Or something close to that)

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That is a good number. And it comes with an average of 3.4 losses a year which makes perfect sense - 9.7 + 3.4 = 13 (12 regular season and a bowl).

So, that is what you have with a 15 year sample size. Pretty good predictor. As I said 2 to 4 losses a year, year in and year out. And that gets you to the top 25 and a middlin' bowl. And he is tracking exactly to this year if he gets his act together and doesn't dip to 5 Ls. And I will venture to say that is where we will be next year as well. So, you already have my 2016 prediction.