re: A statistics nerd on Reddit plugged all 128 teams into a computer model

quote:

---

Gotta love computer geeks thinking they have the game of football predictions mastered.

---

Never said I did. Again this is for gambling purposes only. It's a starting point. I use this data to help me handicap games. But its not the gospel or the final say.

quote:

---

News flash, players graduate and new players come in. Sometimes new players can be studs and player replacing the graduated players can be worse or better.

---

It's not like my system uses last years numbers and assumes nothing changes. It takes a team, what they did last year, and what they have coming back, and identifies past teams who were in similar situations and then aggregates how those teams improved or declined.

I understand that some teams lose players and bring in better ones, but there is no objective way to measure that. You can't objectively measure how a recruit who has never played meaningful snaps will perform. For every Johnny Manziel you have a Jeff Driskell.