Very thourough and well thought-out post.

I pretty much agree with everything you wrote, except I think that, after watching last year unfold, with the right st of circumstances, any SEC team not named Vandy or Kentucky could win it all. Both MS schools were in the top 10 at one point last year, as well as every other SEC west team but Arkansas. In the east, everybody has been on the brink except vandy and ky.

12 of 14 SEC teams could win it all now or within a few years. That is why the SEC is so dominant. Oddly enough, that is why sports media is desparate to make a story out of the SEC's "fall" from the top. They are trying to keep interest alive in other non-SEC states.

But, I think treands are shifting in other conferences. The B1G large state schools in football states will stay strong,(PennSt, Ohio St,, Michigan, Mich St) while the smaller, private schools and state schools in non-football states will never get there (Indiana, Iowa, Illinois etc.)

By the same token, I expect USCw to have increasing difficulty, while the Arizona schools flurish.

The formula for future success appears to be:
1. Large Student body
2. Football state (lots of HS fooball talent)
3. Large following.

An example of on just falling short is Minnesota. It is a huge school with a large to potentially large following, but not much football in-state compared to others.

By this reasoning, there is absolutely no goddamn excuse for LSU to be anywhere but in the championship conversation every motherfrickig year. None. LSU has a ton of advantages.