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AP Top Ten analysis 2012-2014 (weeks 1-7 only)
Posted on 9/14/14 at 4:08 pm
Posted on 9/14/14 at 4:08 pm
2012:
Week 1: #8 Michigan loses to #2 Alabama
Week 2: #10 Arkansas loses to ULM
Week 3: #2 USC loses to #21 Stanford, #10 Michigan State loses to #20 Notre Dame
Week 4: #6 Oklahoma loses to #15 Kansas State, #10 Clemson loses to #4 Florida State
Week 5: #8 Stanford loses to Washington
Week 6: #4 LSU loses to #10 Florida, #3 Florida State loses to N.C. State, #5 Georgia loses to #6 South Carolina
Week 7: #3 South Carolina loses to #9 LSU, #5 West Virginia loses to Texas Tech
2013:
Week 1: #5 Georgia lost to #8 Clemson
Week 2: #6 South Carolina lost to #11 Georgia
Week 3: #6 Texas A&M lost to #1 Alabama
Week 4: None
Week 5: #6 LSU lost to #9 Georgia
Week 6: none
Week 7: #5 Stanford lost to Utah, #7 Georgia lost to #25 Missouri
2014 season
Week 1: #9 South Carolina lost to #21 Texas A&M
Week 2: #7 Michigan State lost to #3 Oregon, #8 Ohio State lost to Virginia Tech
Week 3: #6 Georgia lost to #24 South Carolina, #9 USC lost to Boston College
#1 lost 0 times
#2 lost 1 times
#3 lost 2 times
#4 lost 1 times
#5 lost 4 times
#6 lost 5 times
#7 lost 2 times
#8 lost 8 times
#9 lost 2 times
#10 lost 3 times
This means in terms of top 10 upset this week over an opponent capable of pulling the upset:
Clemson will not beat Florida State
Washington State will not beat Oregon
Florida has about a 12% chance of beating Alabama
Kansas State has about a 24% chance of beating Auburn
SMU has ZERO chance of beating A&M
Baylor has a BYE
Mississippi State has about a 47% chance of beating LSU
Notre Dame and Ole Miss both have bye weeks
Week 1: #8 Michigan loses to #2 Alabama
Week 2: #10 Arkansas loses to ULM
Week 3: #2 USC loses to #21 Stanford, #10 Michigan State loses to #20 Notre Dame
Week 4: #6 Oklahoma loses to #15 Kansas State, #10 Clemson loses to #4 Florida State
Week 5: #8 Stanford loses to Washington
Week 6: #4 LSU loses to #10 Florida, #3 Florida State loses to N.C. State, #5 Georgia loses to #6 South Carolina
Week 7: #3 South Carolina loses to #9 LSU, #5 West Virginia loses to Texas Tech
2013:
Week 1: #5 Georgia lost to #8 Clemson
Week 2: #6 South Carolina lost to #11 Georgia
Week 3: #6 Texas A&M lost to #1 Alabama
Week 4: None
Week 5: #6 LSU lost to #9 Georgia
Week 6: none
Week 7: #5 Stanford lost to Utah, #7 Georgia lost to #25 Missouri
2014 season
Week 1: #9 South Carolina lost to #21 Texas A&M
Week 2: #7 Michigan State lost to #3 Oregon, #8 Ohio State lost to Virginia Tech
Week 3: #6 Georgia lost to #24 South Carolina, #9 USC lost to Boston College
#1 lost 0 times
#2 lost 1 times
#3 lost 2 times
#4 lost 1 times
#5 lost 4 times
#6 lost 5 times
#7 lost 2 times
#8 lost 8 times
#9 lost 2 times
#10 lost 3 times
This means in terms of top 10 upset this week over an opponent capable of pulling the upset:
Clemson will not beat Florida State
Washington State will not beat Oregon
Florida has about a 12% chance of beating Alabama
Kansas State has about a 24% chance of beating Auburn
SMU has ZERO chance of beating A&M
Baylor has a BYE
Mississippi State has about a 47% chance of beating LSU
Notre Dame and Ole Miss both have bye weeks
6
Posted on 9/14/14 at 4:11 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
That is pretty interesting, why not use a larger sample size?
Posted on 9/14/14 at 4:34 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
Don't be #8, got it.
Posted on 9/14/14 at 4:46 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
quote:
Mississippi State has about a 47% chance of beating LSU
If we use the last 22 meetings as a sample size Mississippi State has a 4.5% chance of winning.
Posted on 9/14/14 at 4:55 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
Why are we counting losses to higher ranked teams? (#8 Michigan loses to #2 Alabama)
Posted on 9/14/14 at 5:30 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
Thanks for gathering this. Very interesting.
Posted on 9/14/14 at 6:02 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
quote:
CGSC Lobotomy
Fairly interesting. But rather than use weeks 1-7 why not use weeks 5-12? Using weeks 5-12 would really tell us something.
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