re: My reason for believing Auburn can win

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give up half as much pressure on our QB

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Auburn has had more sacks given up and more tackles for losses given up than Bama.

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kick the ball out of the endzone

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Definitely got the advantage on kickoffs.

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kick the ball high enough to get there and stop the opponent for about half what they gain on Bama returning punts

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Auburn has had to punt 41 times, Bama only 33. I'll take scoring vs worrying about punt return yardage anytime.

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More YPA running

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Except against BCS AQ Teams. Bama has an advantage here 5.94 to 5.75. When you calculate against Conference teams, Bama has an even more sizable advantage with 6.41 to Auburn's 5.66.

As run heavy as Auburn is, they only average 37 more yards on the ground against SEC competition than Bama does. That's on 352 attempts, versus 270 for Bama.