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re: StatTiger's A&M projections
Posted on 10/17/13 at 12:46 am to rangers911
Posted on 10/17/13 at 12:46 am to rangers911
quote:
Geneschin
Those stats are typically very accurate.
I am not saying that the raw numbers he refers to is accurate just some of the conclusions when he combines some stats. For your average guy (Columbus PD officer I heard) he is really good
He just doesn't have a background in regression statistics from what I have read from him. There are combinations of stats that don't really work and aren't the most accurate way to depict things
Such as combining his predicted score models
Posted on 10/17/13 at 3:01 am to GenesChin
quote:It's actually very sound in the score part. His projected Ole Miss Final was 27-22 Auburn, only 3 points off. For 1 set he takes the TAMU scoring average and multiplies it by 1 - the % below what the Auburn D is giving up teams since AU gives up less than teams' averages to get 1 TAMU value. Then he multiplies TAMU's average score given up on D by 1 + the % AU's O is scoring over the team averages given up by AU opponents since AU is scoring more than their opponents allow. That gives you 1 Auburn value and completes the first set. For the second set take AU scoring average and multiply it by 1 + the % above what the TAMU D is giving up teams since TAMU gives up more than teams' averages to get the next AU value. Then he multiplies AU's average score given up on D by 1 + the % TAMU's O is scoring over the team averages given up by TAMU opponents since TAMU is scoring more than their opponents allow to get the next TAMU value. add the same team values and divide by 2 to get the projected score for each team.
Such as combining his predicted score models
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