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APR problems
Posted on 6/11/13 at 9:44 pm
Posted on 6/11/13 at 9:44 pm
With the new numbers that just came out, Billy Kennedy achieved a 920 for AY 2011-2012. That was with just ONE player leaving the team.
Turgeon's final season was a 907 (2010-2011).
If you consider that you have to have a 3-year average of 930 or higher to be eligible for postseason, and the fact that THREE players left the team last year (Hibbert, Davis, Alexander), it's likely that the 2012-2013 numbers will not be at least 980 or higher, which is what we would have to have to keep the 2 year (2011-2013) average at 940 or higher.
Therefore, we will likely be banned from postseason play in 2014-2015.
Turgeon gets most of the blame, since his final 2 years contributed to us being borderline noncompliant (846, 907), but a 920 isn't much better.
Turgeon's final season was a 907 (2010-2011).
If you consider that you have to have a 3-year average of 930 or higher to be eligible for postseason, and the fact that THREE players left the team last year (Hibbert, Davis, Alexander), it's likely that the 2012-2013 numbers will not be at least 980 or higher, which is what we would have to have to keep the 2 year (2011-2013) average at 940 or higher.
Therefore, we will likely be banned from postseason play in 2014-2015.
Turgeon gets most of the blame, since his final 2 years contributed to us being borderline noncompliant (846, 907), but a 920 isn't much better.
This post was edited on 6/12/13 at 12:22 pm
1
Posted on 6/12/13 at 3:12 am to CGSC Lobotomy
Posted on 6/12/13 at 10:22 am to betweenthebara
APR getting Kennedy fired as opposed to performance is actually the worst possible scenario:
Sure it nullifies the $500,000 buyout, but good luck getting a quality coach to come to a program in which his first (and likely second) season he's not eligible for the tournament.
Sure it nullifies the $500,000 buyout, but good luck getting a quality coach to come to a program in which his first (and likely second) season he's not eligible for the tournament.
Posted on 6/12/13 at 11:32 am to CGSC Lobotomy
Upon further review, the problem is deeper than originally thought:
To be eligible for the postseason in 2013-2014, you must have a 930 four-year average or a 940 average over the most recent two years.
Technically, we should be banned from the postseason because our 2 year average is 913 and our 4-year average is ALSO 913. (2009-2012) However, we're still in the 3-year adjustment period that began at the beginning of last season.
Therefore, the restrictions will take effect for 2014-2015. Here's how it lays out:
2009-2010: 846 APR
2010-2011: 907 APR
2011-2012: 920 APR
2012-2013: TBD
Doing the math, it is impossible to meet the 930 four-year average. It would require 1,047 points in 2012-2013 and a perfect score is 1,000.
940 2-year average is doable, but more difficult. We would have to have earned a 960 in 2012-2013 to be eligible for the postseason in 2014-2015. Considering that the 2008-2009 result was a 980, it's certainly doable.
2015-2016 is a bit easier, as we effectively scuttle the 2009-2010 results.
To be eligble that season, we would have to AVERAGE 947 between 2012-2013 and 2013-2014
This is the first time you'll see me post this, so save the date: Mark Turgeon frickED US here. Two of the three worst APR years since the system took effect (2009-2010 and 2010-2011) happened under his watch.
To be eligible for the postseason in 2013-2014, you must have a 930 four-year average or a 940 average over the most recent two years.
Technically, we should be banned from the postseason because our 2 year average is 913 and our 4-year average is ALSO 913. (2009-2012) However, we're still in the 3-year adjustment period that began at the beginning of last season.
Therefore, the restrictions will take effect for 2014-2015. Here's how it lays out:
2009-2010: 846 APR
2010-2011: 907 APR
2011-2012: 920 APR
2012-2013: TBD
Doing the math, it is impossible to meet the 930 four-year average. It would require 1,047 points in 2012-2013 and a perfect score is 1,000.
940 2-year average is doable, but more difficult. We would have to have earned a 960 in 2012-2013 to be eligible for the postseason in 2014-2015. Considering that the 2008-2009 result was a 980, it's certainly doable.
2015-2016 is a bit easier, as we effectively scuttle the 2009-2010 results.
To be eligble that season, we would have to AVERAGE 947 between 2012-2013 and 2013-2014
This is the first time you'll see me post this, so save the date: Mark Turgeon frickED US here. Two of the three worst APR years since the system took effect (2009-2010 and 2010-2011) happened under his watch.
Posted on 6/12/13 at 11:52 am to CGSC Lobotomy
why do the numbers in your OP not match the numbers in the post above? can you link this info?
also
also
quote:
Mark Turgeon frickED US here.
Posted on 6/12/13 at 12:00 pm to Dr RC
quote:
why do the numbers in your OP not match the numbers in the post above? can you link this info?
I had to go on the NCAA APR website to find it.
Here's what I was able to get from the individual listings:
2011-2012: 920 APR (912 Multiyear)
2010-2011: 907 APR (933 Multiyear)
2009-2010: 846 APR (952 Multiyear)
2008-2009: 980 APR (986 Multiyear)
Only the multiyear averages were available for the other three seasons:
2007-2008: 953
2006-2007: 912
2005-2006: 891
Former players graduating can raise multiyear averages as well. The system is very suspect. If the proposed standards were implemented last season, 99 teams would have been ineligible for postseason play.
Another interesting point: Mark Turgeon's first season at Maryland - APR 881
This post was edited on 6/12/13 at 12:05 pm
Posted on 6/13/13 at 1:34 am to CGSC Lobotomy
Here's a picture of Bill Byrne just 'cause.
I see that Billy Kennedy was an upgrade in some respects.
If Turgeon's Maryland is any indication, perhaps the situation we face is more prevalent than we think. I believe the NCAA would quietly roll back to the original standards rather than disqualify so many teams. CBS and Turner Sports paid 10.8 billion dollars through 2024 for the NCAA Tournament and that's too much money invested to potentially ban almost a third of all D-1 teams.
I shudder to think of the type of undeserving teams that would go to the Big Dance if such an event occurred.
quote:
Turgeon gets most of the blame, since his final 2 years contributed to us being borderline noncompliant (846, 907), but a 920 isn't much better....
This is the first time you'll see me post this, so save the date: Mark Turgeon frickED US here.
I see that Billy Kennedy was an upgrade in some respects.
quote:
If the proposed standards were implemented last season, 99 teams would have been ineligible for postseason play.
If Turgeon's Maryland is any indication, perhaps the situation we face is more prevalent than we think. I believe the NCAA would quietly roll back to the original standards rather than disqualify so many teams. CBS and Turner Sports paid 10.8 billion dollars through 2024 for the NCAA Tournament and that's too much money invested to potentially ban almost a third of all D-1 teams.
I shudder to think of the type of undeserving teams that would go to the Big Dance if such an event occurred.
quote:Classic CGSC. Also, the original thread title was much better.
APR getting Kennedy fired as opposed to performance is actually the worst possible scenario: Sure it nullifies the $500,000 buyout, but good luck getting a quality coach to come to a program in which his first (and likely second) season he's not eligible for the tournament
Posted on 6/13/13 at 5:59 am to ImperialPalace
quote:
Also, the original thread title was much better.
The original title is no longer appropriate. Kennedy may be a below-average to mediocre coach, but Turgeon put us in the APR mess.
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