re: According to Jerry Palm, the chances of Florida making the MNC are 20%

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If they got to 2 in the polls and 4 in the computers, they could have shot depending on where Florida fell (e.g. voters put ND at 3 and keep Florida at 4).

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ND would probably jump them in that scenario. No way the get over Bama, Fla or ND in the computers.

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if ND was 3 in the computers and 2 in both polls and Florida was 3 in both polls and 1 in the computers it could be very tight.

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It would fall on how many votes each got at the 2 and 3 position. I don't think ND would have a solid enough point avg to hold off Fla.

That's all my personal opinion, and I've admittedly been wrong a time or two before. In the end, I think it's going to end up ND/Bama. But still 2 games to go, so we'll see.