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re: Why Arkansas should be ranked in the top 2 with win over LSU

Posted on 11/21/11 at 10:27 pm to
Posted by Jon Ham
Member since Jun 2011
28637 posts
Posted on 11/21/11 at 10:27 pm to
quote:

Arkansas could beat LSU this Friday and still get shut out of the BCS. In fact, if they beat LSU that is a near certainty that they will


Without knowing how the human voters will cast their ballots, how can you say anything with certainty. If the votes split in the following way, can you say with certainty Arkansas would be kept out?

% of 1st place votes:
Bsma - 56.67%
Ark - 33.33%
LSU - 10%

% of 2nd place votes:
Ark - 50%
LSU - 25%
Bsms - 25%

% of 3rd place votes:
LSU - 65%
Bama - 18.33%
Ark - 16.67%
Posted by molsusports
Member since Jul 2004
36155 posts
Posted on 11/21/11 at 11:44 pm to
quote:

Arkansas could beat LSU this Friday and still get shut out of the BCS. In fact, if they beat LSU that is a near certainty that they will



Without knowing how the human voters will cast their ballots, how can you say anything with certainty.


near certainty not absolute... you don't need to exaggerate my statement when it was already a very strong one

quote:

If the votes split in the following way, can you say with certainty Arkansas would be kept out?


If Arky beats LSU in a close game you can expect a variety of opinions with Alabama, Arky, and LSU all getting votes from 1-3 in the human opinion polls. My bias is in that situation the voters will mostly push Bama to #1 but there will be some who reach for either Arky or LSU in that spot instead. Because the computers will continue to favor LSU over Bama and Arky at least (Ok State is the only one who might pass LSU in the computers if LSU lost to Arky and OkS beats OU the following week) LSU will almost certainly back into the SEC CCG in that scenario

Obviously this would not be true if LSU lost to Arky and Bama lost to Auburn - then Arky goes to teh SEC CCG with the tiebreaker over LSU.
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