Take Bama to miss the playoffs at ~-200 odds (although if win the next 2, you might get better odds prior to UGA game). I also like taking the under on 8.5 wins at ~-150 odds, but it’s possible to go 9-3 and still miss the playoffs on the first bet. You’ll either get paid, or Bama will have had a decent season (I’m guessing you’ll get paid).

Either bet would require us to at least go 6-2 in the SEC under the following circumstances to lose the bet:

1) we don’t play UK, Miss St, or Arkansas…the 3 worst teams in the SEC
2) we are currently down our top 2 DTs, and there’s no guarantee TKIII will be 100% this year when he does come back.
3) we’re 4-5 in our last 9 P4 games. Even 5-3 with our SEC schedule would be good, but 6-2 seems like a 20% chance or less. Vegas is still giving Bama the benefit of the doubt due to talent, but something is broken and the odds aren’t reflecting it.
4) we play 3 running QBs on the road (UGA, SC, AU)
5) we play 2 teams who have an extra week to prepare for us, 1 on the road
6) we play a running QB immediately following the UGA game that beat us last year, and our defensive coordinator is still KW (although at least it’s at home)

Don’t bet money you can’t afford to lose but if you want to feel better at the end of the season, these are decent odds given the circumstances. If we go 6-2, it means we will have beaten at least 2 of UGA, Tenn, LSU, and AU. So whatever money you would pay right now to ensure a 6-2 SEC season, put it on Bama to miss the playoffs…you’ll have something to be happy about after the AU game either way.

This post was edited on 9/6/25 at 9:10 am