re: There are only two SEC men’s basketball teams with less than 7 wins

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That schedule has Bama currently ranked #9 in NET and #9 in KenPom. Obviously Bama will have to put together a winning conference record but it is funny to see so many people wrongly assuming Bama’s OOC schedule has them in trouble with respect to NCAA tournament.

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Those people simply have an understanding of how the selection process works.

In the past two tournaments, only 8 teams have been selected for an at-large bid with fewer than 20 wins. Five of those were out of the BIG10, two from the Big 12, and one from the SEC (Bama in 2022).

It’s hard for an SEC team to get in with less than 20 wins because we don’t play as many Quad 1 games in league play.

Those 8 teams averaged playing 16.1 Quad 1 opponents and averaged 6.8 Quad 1 wins.

This season, Bama currently sits at 1-5 against Quad 1 opponents. Torvik projects Bama will play 9 Q1 games in SEC play.

So Bama’s looking at a likely resume of 15 Q1 opponents…. One fewer than the average of 16.1 of teams who got in with less than 20 wins…. And they’ll need to go 5-4 in those big games to have a shot at a bid.

Basically Bama is 6-5 and they are going to need to get to 19 wins to get a bid. Bama has a guaranteed 21 games left to play. Can they go 13-8 from here on out? It’s certainly possible, but to act like there is tons of breathing room is ridiculous.