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re: The problem with the 4th and 31 defensive play call

Posted on 11/27/23 at 4:40 pm to
Posted by DeoreDX
Member since Oct 2010
4059 posts
Posted on 11/27/23 at 4:40 pm to
If you want to devise a defense to give the offense the greatest chance to success on that down and distance, the rush 2 and spy the 3rd might only be topped by a blitz 11 leave everyone wide open coverage.

From the 31 yard line Milrose has the arm talent that all parts of the field is in play with velocity and accuracy. This isn't the same situation where the goal line is so far away you have to chuck it in the air and everyone has a chance to converge.

By rushing only 2 and allowing the QB all the time in the world to stand in the middle of the field and scan the defense, all you've done is give the offense sufficient time to break down coverage. You can't cover everyone forever and the longer the offense has to break down coverage the greater chance someone gets open or a penalty happens resulting in an automatic first down.

The spy? One of the most idiotic decisions I've ever seen defensively. You WANT him to run in that situation. Spy is a wasted player and gives the offense a 2 man advantage in protection. You need the rush to limit the amount of time the QB has to make a decision. If you are going to rush just 3, overload one side to force the QB to one side and compress the field an give your rushers a better chance of breaking down protection. Or perhaps a TEX on one side trying to free up a rusher to pressure the QB. YOu don't need a sack you just need to have just enough pressure to make the QB move off his box want to get rid of the ball before coverage breaks down. Want a spy? You have a 3 man advantage in the back end there should be a couple of DB's watching the QB anyways.

From a dead stop it takes ~3 seconds to run 20 yards. At this 3 second mark the underneath coverage is in phase with the receivers and the 3 deep safeties have over the top leverage. Those 3 DB's with their feet on the goal line have all the advantage with their leverage over the top and all eyes on both the QB and receivers running the routes. BY the 4th second the WR's have crossed into the end zone have run into the back coverage and it's a matter of who's chess pieces are in the right position and if one chess pieces can make a special individual play v the ones on the board by the D. After 5+ seconds the DB's are now in chase mode. DB's drift out of zones shadowing receivers. Receivers making double and triple moves making it near impossible to keep up. YOu can't keep eyes on both the receivers and QB. Peek at the QB and you loose phase with the receiver. Half a second hesitation on a juke and you've lost phase with the receiver. The QB has the whole field in front of him with an unmolested view to see the holes in the coverage as they open and close.
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