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re: tOfficial Alabama Basketball Season Thread | 19-15 (10-8) | #BuckleUp
Posted on 2/9/17 at 12:06 pm to GenesChin
Posted on 2/9/17 at 12:06 pm to GenesChin
quote:
TeamRank has Bama at a 18.9% chance and the following Wins (incl SECT) chances
Yea - I just don't think it's that high. We have to win Saturday or else we'll need a miracle SECT run. I think the odds of us winning Saturday are extremely low.
Then, if we do somehow do that, we'd have to basically win out with 1 loss and we'd still have an RPI somewhere around 48-50 going into the SECT. Then, we'd have to win 2 more probably.
I just don't think this team is talented enough to do that. And at 20 wins, our RPI would be about 55-60. Not nearly good enough.
2
Posted on 2/9/17 at 12:12 pm to Triple Daves
We have a better chance of losing out than making the tournament
Posted on 2/9/17 at 12:12 pm to GenesChin
To explain why youc an have absurdly high numbers for Bama that don't seem so realistic, look at it this way
TeamRank says there is a ~27% chance Bama ends season 19-11 or better. They would be they would be favored in their SECT matchup which gets them to 20+W which they say is in.
Say they get to 18-12 (~30%) and 5 seed, theyw ould be heavily favored game 1 and a tossup game 2 giving a decent shot of getting to 20+W
TeamRank says there is a ~27% chance Bama ends season 19-11 or better. They would be they would be favored in their SECT matchup which gets them to 20+W which they say is in.
Say they get to 18-12 (~30%) and 5 seed, theyw ould be heavily favored game 1 and a tossup game 2 giving a decent shot of getting to 20+W
Posted on 2/9/17 at 12:16 pm to Triple Daves
quote:
Yea - I just don't think it's that high. We have to win Saturday or else we'll need a miracle SECT run. I think the odds of us winning Saturday are extremely low.
As someone who works in a math field, I'm not a fan of how these models appear to be working. I understand why it makes sense, but they appear to be treating games as independent events that are not correlated events which is a huge red flag.
This post was edited on 2/9/17 at 12:17 pm
Posted on 2/9/17 at 12:22 pm to coachcrisp
I agree completely with your post, but if a guy's goal is solely to be a pro, should he care?
NBA players set moving screens and travel almost every play. Very rarely do bigs make post moves anymore. Most bigs that are considered good are just good in transition or are pick and pop players.
High school basketball resembles the NBA much more than college.
NBA players set moving screens and travel almost every play. Very rarely do bigs make post moves anymore. Most bigs that are considered good are just good in transition or are pick and pop players.
High school basketball resembles the NBA much more than college.
Posted on 2/9/17 at 12:23 pm to GenesChin
Yea, I understand their general rational, but I like rpi forecast better because I can tell it results and get an RPI (as of that day).
Either way, we'd both have to play over our heads in a couple games and consistently solid all the rest.
LOL zero chance in that
Either way, we'd both have to play over our heads in a couple games and consistently solid all the rest.
LOL zero chance in that
Posted on 2/9/17 at 12:24 pm to GenesChin
Final note on that stuff, Alabama's RPI is almost for sure not improve
After the RPI increase from UK (regardless outcome), Alabama's RPI will almost for sure drop like a rock and likely not recover unless you win out.
These projections don't seem to do a great job of handling these fluctuations
After the RPI increase from UK (regardless outcome), Alabama's RPI will almost for sure drop like a rock and likely not recover unless you win out.
These projections don't seem to do a great job of handling these fluctuations
This post was edited on 2/9/17 at 12:27 pm
Posted on 2/9/17 at 12:27 pm to GenesChin
Yea, that nice LSU/Missouri back to back is a real ball buster.
Basically, have to best Kentucky and then win 2/3 of UGA, Ole Miss, @ TN and win the others. At that point wer probably barely on the bubble and need to win 2, maybe 3 SECT games.
Not happening.
Basically, have to best Kentucky and then win 2/3 of UGA, Ole Miss, @ TN and win the others. At that point wer probably barely on the bubble and need to win 2, maybe 3 SECT games.
Not happening.
Posted on 2/9/17 at 12:39 pm to Triple Daves
It isn't just LSU/Mizzou either. With 50% of the weighting going to opponent Win% (H/A adjusted) you are about to be crushed with the following teams
UGA - (13-11)
TAMU- (13-10)
OM - (14-10)
TN- (14-10)
When you add 5Ls you need to that list, they aren't going to help offset your Mizzou/LSU drop at all even if you win
UGA - (13-11)
TAMU- (13-10)
OM - (14-10)
TN- (14-10)
When you add 5Ls you need to that list, they aren't going to help offset your Mizzou/LSU drop at all even if you win
Posted on 2/9/17 at 12:55 pm to GenesChin
quote:
GenesChin
UGA, Ole Miss and Tennessee all have respectable RPIs though. Even Texas A&M is in the Top 100.
33. Tennessee
59. Georgia
69. Ole Miss
92. Texas A&M
We really need to beat Kentucky and Tennessee, honestly, while splitting Georgia/OM and beating A&M, Missouri and LSU. If we did that we'd have a shot. But we won't.
This post was edited on 2/9/17 at 12:56 pm
Posted on 2/9/17 at 1:05 pm to Triple Daves
quote:
UGA, Ole Miss and Tennessee all have respectable RPIs though
That doesn't matter that much for RPI calculations, at least it is a minor %
The formula is
25% to your Home/Away adjusted Winning%
50% to your opponents Home/Away adjusted winning%
25% to your opponents opponent Home/Away adjusted winning%
You'll see their ranking strength reflected in the the Opp Opp Win% of 25%, but that is pretty minor and the marginal differences aren't that big in that category
Posted on 2/9/17 at 1:07 pm to GenesChin
Yea - my point was more there aren't a lot of sinking RPI games on there.
Tennessee is the only one that can give a boost, really.
Tennessee is the only one that can give a boost, really.
Posted on 2/9/17 at 1:12 pm to Triple Daves
Updated "what if" scenarios per RPIWizard
7 remaining games
Win Out (21-9, 14-4) : RPI 39
Win out except @ A&M (20-10, 13-5) : RPI 48
Win out except @ Tennessee (20-10, 13-5) : RPI 49
Win out except Kentucky (20-10, 13-5) : RPI 50
Win out except UK & @ UT (19-11, 12-6) : RPI 65
So, basically, we can afford to lose 1 game and still have an outside shot entering the SECT.
7 remaining games
Win Out (21-9, 14-4) : RPI 39
Win out except @ A&M (20-10, 13-5) : RPI 48
Win out except @ Tennessee (20-10, 13-5) : RPI 49
Win out except Kentucky (20-10, 13-5) : RPI 50
Win out except UK & @ UT (19-11, 12-6) : RPI 65
So, basically, we can afford to lose 1 game and still have an outside shot entering the SECT.
Posted on 2/9/17 at 3:51 pm to Triple Daves
throw out some guesses on what the line will be Sat?
Kentucky -4
Kentucky -4
Posted on 2/9/17 at 3:53 pm to McGregor
-9 Kentucky
Posted on 2/9/17 at 4:01 pm to Gary Busey
Other than UF, Kentucky has been favored by 10+ in every SEC game
-13.5
-13.5
Posted on 2/9/17 at 5:02 pm to McGregor
quote:
throw out some guesses on what the line will be Sat?
Kentucky -4
Way worse than that...
UK -11.5
This post was edited on 2/9/17 at 5:02 pm
Posted on 2/9/17 at 6:23 pm to BigBird09
Posted on 2/9/17 at 6:36 pm to McGregor
Kentucky just beat the second worst team in the SEC (LSU) by 7. 92-85. If they had been dominating everyone else and then struggled against LSU, I'd say it was a bad game, but they've been struggling a lot lately and have lost like 3 games over the past couple weeks. I think we're getting them at the right time. Just don't know if them struggling will be enough to pull off the upset.
Posted on 2/9/17 at 6:42 pm to Bamafan15
I think we might have a 5% chance to win. 
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