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re: WTF was Saban thinking kicking that FG?
Posted on 8/15/14 at 3:10 pm to c on z
Posted on 8/15/14 at 3:10 pm to c on z
quote:Auburn had a top 10 redzone defense. Auburn was giving up a lower percentage of TDs in the redzone than Bama's defense was.
With AU's defense?
This post was edited on 8/15/14 at 4:23 pm
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Posted on 8/15/14 at 4:27 pm to Monticello
Auburn's offense had gotten its rythem back and the defense had no answer for it. Auburn's special teams were on fire the entire game and Bama had to question its punter, not something you want to go into OT with.
Bama's offense was having issues against Auburn's defense, the thing that kept drives alive were big plays and while Auburn was consistently giving those up you can't depend on them.
Saban took a gamble to prevent the game from going into OT.
I honestly don't think it crossed Saban's mind that the ball could be returned. Saban is arguably the best sun-fri coach in all of college football on gameday he's not in the top 1/3 for calling a game.
Bama's offense was having issues against Auburn's defense, the thing that kept drives alive were big plays and while Auburn was consistently giving those up you can't depend on them.
Saban took a gamble to prevent the game from going into OT.
I honestly don't think it crossed Saban's mind that the ball could be returned. Saban is arguably the best sun-fri coach in all of college football on gameday he's not in the top 1/3 for calling a game.
quote:
Just watched the replay on ESPNU and my jimmies are still rustled.
Odds of making a 57 yard FG on the last play of a crucial game in a kicker's first ever kick: 5-10%
Odds of it getting blocked and run back for a TD (considering the low trajectory required, the inexperience of the kicker, and the fact that the previous kick was blocked): 15-20%
Odds of a miss being returned for a TD by a track star with nothing but a kicker, QB and offensive linemen on the field to defend it: 35-40%
Odds of winning the game in OT if you simply take a knee: 40-45% (AU gets the edge due to confidence in kicker and home field advantage).
How on earth did he come to the conclusion that kicking the FG was the best choice? Saban is an elite recruiter, talent developer and program manager, but damn he is only average (or possibly below average) at in game decision making.
Posted on 8/15/14 at 5:07 pm to Crimson Legend
quote:
Thank God someone gets it. All these "coaches" in this thread who are so brilliant about the situation would have been the very first to jump on him if he had put in faster defenders and the kick was blocked. One of the things I hate about how people communicate today is that everyone is a "genius" or an "idiot", mostly based on 20/20 hindsight by people who have no clue what they are evaluating.
Let me get this straight, Bama misses field goals from 33 and 44 yards out, in the 4th quarter alone, 3 in the game, yet somehow they're going to make a 47 yarder? If Saban had a 47 yard FG kicker in his pocket, why wasn't he kicking after Foster's first miss? Saban had already conceded he couldn't kick a 30 yard FG when Yeldon got stuffed at the 13 on 4th down. If you don't go for the FG then (THAT was the time to insert Griffith), you don't go for it at the end of the game with a cold kicker.
That's just dumb to put a kid in there cold to try to win it with a 47 yarder.
I was laughing my arse off.
Posted on 8/15/14 at 5:24 pm to WildTchoupitoulas
quote:It was a 57 yarder.
That's just dumb to put a kid in there cold to try to win it with a 47 yarder.
Posted on 8/15/14 at 5:40 pm to JustGetItRight
As many others have pointed out, not having a FG kicker is a gigantic liability in OT. In a regular game you can strategize around not having a kicker a little bit. In OT this liability becomes massive, as FG kicking becomes magnified a ton and the kicks are almost always having the game on the line.
OT is normally a 50/50'ish proposition but considering Auburn had all the momentum and Alabama had no FG kicker at all, just going into OT isn't exactly something you're eager to do.
OT is normally a 50/50'ish proposition but considering Auburn had all the momentum and Alabama had no FG kicker at all, just going into OT isn't exactly something you're eager to do.
Posted on 8/15/14 at 5:46 pm to IAmReality
I wonder what everyone would have thought of Sean Peyton had his onside kick in the Super Bowl not have worked out.
Everyone would have been furious at what an "idiot" he was and it was too "risky", etc.
Truth is you can mathematically break down if a decision is good or bad based on the % chance of the various possible outcomes.
In regards to the kicking decision, it wasn't really that big of a deal either way. Depending on how you wanna assign percentages, it was either barely good or barely bad.
Everyone would have been furious at what an "idiot" he was and it was too "risky", etc.
Truth is you can mathematically break down if a decision is good or bad based on the % chance of the various possible outcomes.
In regards to the kicking decision, it wasn't really that big of a deal either way. Depending on how you wanna assign percentages, it was either barely good or barely bad.
Posted on 8/15/14 at 5:48 pm to Monticello
Has anyone said "Melt: Day 258" yet?
Posted on 8/15/14 at 5:53 pm to Jrv2damac
Not really. Alabama's lost hundreds of football games before, many more important than that Auburn game, we've lost in SEC championship games while undefeated, we've lost in bowl games playing for a perfect season, and guess what, we're gonna lose games in the future too.
That's football. Alabama is lucky enough to play a lot of big time football games of consequence, you play enough, you lose some. LSU fans if anybody should be able to relate.
That's football. Alabama is lucky enough to play a lot of big time football games of consequence, you play enough, you lose some. LSU fans if anybody should be able to relate.
Posted on 8/15/14 at 5:53 pm to Rabern57
quote:
It was a 57 yarder.
Yeah, duh. Don't know what I was thinking.
Makes my point even better, though. Can't make a 30 yarder? Try a 57 yarder.
Makes sense.
He should've put Griffith in there instead of Yeldon on 4th and 1.
Posted on 8/15/14 at 5:55 pm to WildTchoupitoulas
quote:
He should've put Griffith in there instead of Yeldon on 4th and 1.
I'll give you a version of posts in some alternate reality where Saban tries a FG there and it's no good.
"OMG how could you try another FG after missing so many, it's 4th and 1, should have just gone for it and put the game away, you've got a stable of great RB's, not going for it was epicly stupid"
When your analysis is based solely on the results, it's hard to take seriously.
This post was edited on 8/15/14 at 5:56 pm
Posted on 8/15/14 at 5:56 pm to IAmReality
So no one has said it?
K thanks
K thanks
Posted on 8/15/14 at 5:57 pm to Jrv2damac
After watching the replay, I was actually struck by how poorly coached all those number one recruiting classes are. Special teams sucked, the Gumps made way to many silly mistakes that kept Auburn in the game. And the best coach in college football is an idiot for not kicking the field goal from 13 yard line.
Posted on 8/15/14 at 6:10 pm to IAmReality
quote:
When your analysis is based solely on the results, it's hard to take seriously.
That's true.
Good thing my analysis was based on playing the percentages.
If you've got a kicker that you think has a snowball's chance in hell at a 57 yarder, you let him try a 30 yarder first.
Posted on 8/15/14 at 6:23 pm to WildTchoupitoulas
The one thing % you're ignoring is how often do you convert the 4th and 1 there?
Assuming you spawned 1000 parallel universes and Alabama lined up to convert that 4th and 1 1000 times, what % of the time is it converted vs. not?
According to some quick stats I just googled, the average success rate on a 4th and 1 is about 70% conversion. Considering Alabama has above average offense line and RB's, you gotta figure 70% is a slight underestimation, it's probably closer to 75-80% for Bama in that spot, which sounds and feels about right.
So you gotta figure on average about 4 times in 5 the conversion succeeds.
But we play football one game and one play at a time, and it didn't convert and that's the end of the story.
Assuming you spawned 1000 parallel universes and Alabama lined up to convert that 4th and 1 1000 times, what % of the time is it converted vs. not?
According to some quick stats I just googled, the average success rate on a 4th and 1 is about 70% conversion. Considering Alabama has above average offense line and RB's, you gotta figure 70% is a slight underestimation, it's probably closer to 75-80% for Bama in that spot, which sounds and feels about right.
So you gotta figure on average about 4 times in 5 the conversion succeeds.
But we play football one game and one play at a time, and it didn't convert and that's the end of the story.
Posted on 8/15/14 at 6:35 pm to IAmReality
quote:
The one thing % you're ignoring is how often do you convert the 4th and 1 there?
Less often than you make a 30 yard FG.
It's a lot easier to convert a 4th and 1 from mid field than it is on such a short field.
Your stats aggregate attempts against over-matched opponents at any point on the field. You would have to break out stats inside the 15 against an evenly matched rival - on the road.
quote:
...and that's the end of the story.
You would think so...
...but the melt lives on.
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