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re: WTF was Saban thinking kicking that FG?
Posted on 8/15/14 at 12:34 am to Bad Medicine
Posted on 8/15/14 at 12:34 am to Bad Medicine
quote:How so? They connected on a 99 yard pass. Thats it. The other drives they had were on short fields that yielded zero points and a total of 20 yards
i agree. Auburn would have definitely had the edge going in but I wouldn't have been surprised if bama would have won. Bama outplayed auburn in the fourth quarter.
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Posted on 8/15/14 at 12:41 am to ChexMix
Bama would have been in deep shite in OT honestly.
They put up 21 points in the second quarter then pretty much got handled the second half outside of two long passes to Cooper.
They had great field position over and over in the 4th and AUs redzone D just smashed and destroyed them over and over.
The Hare would have been losing it's mind in OT and with our running O and the way our D was knocking them on their arse and backwards in the redzone and short yardage situations, I really think it would have been one OT and done for bama.
They put up 21 points in the second quarter then pretty much got handled the second half outside of two long passes to Cooper.
They had great field position over and over in the 4th and AUs redzone D just smashed and destroyed them over and over.
The Hare would have been losing it's mind in OT and with our running O and the way our D was knocking them on their arse and backwards in the redzone and short yardage situations, I really think it would have been one OT and done for bama.
Posted on 8/15/14 at 12:48 am to Tiger n Miami AU83
It could have gone either way Tiger.
You guys won and that was all that mattered.
It was a great game.
You guys won and that was all that mattered.
It was a great game.
Posted on 8/15/14 at 12:48 am to Monticello
quote:Somebody's coveniently forgetting a slew of death threats.
Who on earth blamed the rookie kicker for missing a 57 yarder? I would have to see that to believe it.
This post was edited on 8/15/14 at 1:27 am
Posted on 8/15/14 at 12:49 am to Hater Bait
Fair enough. 
Just so you know and being honest (if it makes you feel better about the IB) I'm still not over what happened in Pasadena and may never be.
Just so you know and being honest (if it makes you feel better about the IB) I'm still not over what happened in Pasadena and may never be.
This post was edited on 8/15/14 at 12:52 am
Posted on 8/15/14 at 12:50 am to Tiger n Miami AU83
See y'all in November.
Posted on 8/15/14 at 1:00 am to Tiger n Miami AU83
quote:
Pasadena
I was pulling for you guys and thought y'all were
just going to beat their arse at 21-3.
You still have the SEC championship
and that's pretty damn impressive.
My AU side of the family will never let me get over the IB.
Like the bootleg Co-SEC west division champs t-shirt
and beer koozie they bought me.
This post was edited on 8/15/14 at 1:08 am
Posted on 8/15/14 at 1:13 am to Monticello
I am glad Bama fans are asking this question. Saban used to be better than that.
It was a bonehead move. Evidence of #tdecline?
It was a bonehead move. Evidence of #tdecline?
Posted on 8/15/14 at 1:15 am to ChexMix
It's a simple game theory problem.
The vast majority of the time the kick is no good and nobody scores. These times are a complete wash.
Some % of the time the FG is good, this is very small.
Some % of the time, Auburn scores (blocked FG return, or regular return), this is also very small.
If the odds of making it are greater than the odds of Auburn scoring, it was a correct decision. If the other way around, it was incorrect.
The %'s involved are so small that in reality it was negligible in terms of goodness or badness.
Of course, hindsight is 20/20. If by some miracle the kick is good everyone is bragging on him for having faith in his kicker, etc.
People have a bad habit of doing something called "resulted oriented analysis"
The vast majority of the time the kick is no good and nobody scores. These times are a complete wash.
Some % of the time the FG is good, this is very small.
Some % of the time, Auburn scores (blocked FG return, or regular return), this is also very small.
If the odds of making it are greater than the odds of Auburn scoring, it was a correct decision. If the other way around, it was incorrect.
The %'s involved are so small that in reality it was negligible in terms of goodness or badness.
Of course, hindsight is 20/20. If by some miracle the kick is good everyone is bragging on him for having faith in his kicker, etc.
People have a bad habit of doing something called "resulted oriented analysis"
This post was edited on 8/15/14 at 1:17 am
Posted on 8/15/14 at 6:05 am to Monticello
20/20 hindsight. If it goes in, I promise you there wouldn't be a single thread here criticizing the decision because of the risk of a return.
It is remarkable how these decisions are so OBVIOUS to some people with the tiny benefit of knowing the outcome.
It is remarkable how these decisions are so OBVIOUS to some people with the tiny benefit of knowing the outcome.
Posted on 8/15/14 at 6:15 am to Monticello
quote:
ow on earth did he come to the conclusion that kicking the FG was the best choice? Saban is an elite recruiter, talent developer and program manager, but damn he is only average (or possibly below average) at in game decision making.
I have always said this...I still say he's the best coach in America because while he might be a "6" game day decision maker, he's a 10+ everywhere else.
Posted on 8/15/14 at 6:21 am to Monticello
quote:
Watch the replay again. Who was going to stop Davis? He was 10x the athlete of anyone on the field wearing crimson. It's not like Davis made some incredible run by juking by Landon Collins and pulling a spin move on Clinton-Dix. He ran straight ahead, veered left and ran 109 yards untouched. He probably could have picked any angle or side of the field and had a TD run. That was horrible coaching by Bama. Plain horrible.
Here's something I have noticed that I haven't seen anyone talk about. From our vantage point on TV...the kick looked pretty dang good...you didn't know it was going to be short or wide until the very last second...from the players vantage point though (and the other camera angle on cables), the kick was a vector...it started right and stayed right. Even if it had the leg, it was never going to be good. The Auburn players started late to start setting up the return...but the Bama players started even later...not one of them moved until Chris Davis already had the ball and started his return. Had they fanned out right after the kick got away, Davis would have had a much tougher time.
This post was edited on 8/15/14 at 6:22 am
Posted on 8/15/14 at 6:46 am to tkane311
Hence why a FG return for a TD has only happened. 4 times in known history, or twice once you consider teams that should be competitive with one another.
Posted on 8/15/14 at 6:49 am to Monticello
Agree he should have just took a knee, but by fighting to get the second back on the clock i guess he felt
he had to try the kick.
He should had took more time and thought it through more.
The things i notice about Saban are once he makes a mistake
he learns from it and will do the right things
to correct it.
It wouldn't surprise me if Bama
has one of the best special teams in football.
he had to try the kick.
He should had took more time and thought it through more.
The things i notice about Saban are once he makes a mistake
he learns from it and will do the right things
to correct it.
It wouldn't surprise me if Bama
has one of the best special teams in football.
Posted on 8/15/14 at 7:58 am to thekid
quote:
I think the decision to go for it on 4th down so deep in Auburn territory was the worst decision in the mix...you really don't have anyone on the team that can make a 30 yard FG?...that's crazy.
I also was shocked at how poorly coached Alabama looked in that game...stupid penalties, bad execution, lack of discipline...
'Bama just gave that game away...if that had been Miles, the whole slant of every highlight reel would have been all the bad decisions Miles made...Saban gets a pass from most everybody except level-headed Bama fans...which there are about 5...
I agree with all of this except "Bama just gave it away" AU made the plays, UA did not.
Posted on 8/15/14 at 8:08 am to parkjas2001
quote:
He knew AU wins if it goes OT
100% correct.
Auburn had all the momentum.
Auburn had the better field goal kicker.
Auburn was controlling the LOS in short yardage situation.
Alabama had a better chance of making that field goal than they did of winning the game. It wasn't lost on the last play, it was lost when Alabama couldn't convert numerous short yardage chances in the second half - any one of which would have given them a three score lead and iced the game.
Posted on 8/15/14 at 8:18 am to Monticello
quote:
WTF was Saban thinking kicking that FG?
quote:
Saban is an elite recruiter, talent developer and program manager, but damn he is only average (or possibly below average) at in game decision making.
I think you already answered the question
Posted on 8/15/14 at 8:31 am to parkjas2001
quote:
He knew AU wins if it goes OT
Posted on 8/15/14 at 8:39 am to JustGetItRight
quote:
100% correct.
Auburn had all the momentum.
Auburn had the better field goal kicker.
Auburn was controlling the LOS in short yardage situation.
Alabama had a better chance of making that field goal than they did of winning the game. It wasn't lost on the last play, it was lost when Alabama couldn't convert numerous short yardage chances in the second half - any one of which would have given them a three score lead and iced the game.
Agree. I would add that it was also lost when we gave up the final touchdown pass with seconds to go. There is no way that should have happened.
To say that "he knew AU wins if it goes to OT" is certainly overstated, but he did know that we did NOT have the momentum and we had a severe disadvantage in our kicking game. Going for that FG was the right thing to do. With hindsight, we should have had more speed on the field (and maybe let Cade kick it despite his shellshocked mindset, because Foster played LB in high school and would have been much more help in the event of a return.)
Posted on 8/15/14 at 8:48 am to Crimson Legend
quote:
Agree. I would add that it was also lost when we gave up the final touchdown pass with seconds to go. There is no way that should have happened.
That was the final nail in the coffin , but I still can't bring myself to put too much blame a kid who was playing WR just a few months earlier.
Saban & staff certainly made bad decisions in that game (the biggest being the repeated attempts to smashmouth for short yards when the AU defensive line was clearly in control of the LOS) but the kick wasn't one. His read of the game situation was spot on when he made that call.
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