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re: Almost SEC baseball season: SEC West predictions
Posted on 12/27/12 at 1:27 pm to Al Bundy Bulldog
Posted on 12/27/12 at 1:27 pm to Al Bundy Bulldog
quote:
Mississippi State returns virtually their entire team that won 40 games last year.
40 teams won 40 or more games last year.
1
Posted on 12/27/12 at 1:27 pm to Hawgeye
every year you hogs predict you'll finish higher than LSU and it never happens. maybe one day it will and i guess that's what keeps you going.
Posted on 12/27/12 at 1:27 pm to bas456
Posted on 12/27/12 at 1:28 pm to bubbz
Your reasoning is pure garbage. To put it midly. Had you put something remotely factual, I would not argue with your rankings.
Arkansas finished 3rd in the nation a year ago. Did we miss that?
Arkansas finished 3rd in the nation a year ago. Did we miss that?
Posted on 12/27/12 at 1:28 pm to wegotdatwood
quote:
Think we'll be able to hit? It was so annoying watching us.
Try watching Stony freaking Brook come in and shut down your bats like we had to witness. 3 runs in our last 18 innings against them
Posted on 12/27/12 at 1:30 pm to thunderbird1100
At least all your fans high dived SB players though
Posted on 12/27/12 at 1:31 pm to BalladofBradSowell
quote:
LSU vastly overachieved from a metric standpoint last year. The won't be statistically capable of staying that far ahead of extrapolated production.
Are you saying LSU won more games than the stats say they should have? In SEC games, LSU finished 4th in hitting, 3rd in pitching and 3rd in defense.
Posted on 12/27/12 at 1:34 pm to LSU GrandDad
Dave Van Horn bitches
This post was edited on 12/27/12 at 1:35 pm
Posted on 12/27/12 at 1:35 pm to Hawgeye
Alabama baseball sucks so bad, this thread is in the fourth page and no Bama fan has posted complaining about the 7th place prediction.
Well, allow me to be the first.
#7? May be too high. When does Golf season start?
Well, allow me to be the first.
#7? May be too high. When does Golf season start?
Posted on 12/27/12 at 1:40 pm to East Coast Band
quote:
d no Bama fan has posted complaining about the 7th place prediction.
Well, allow me to be the first.
#7? May be too high. When does Golf season start?
Posted on 12/27/12 at 1:53 pm to Hawgeye
quote:
Your reasoning is pure garbage. To put it midly. Had you put something remotely factual, I would not argue with your rankings.
Arkansas finished 3rd in the nation a year ago. Did we miss that?
I said conference play jackass....Arkansas finished what 16-14 in conference or it may have been 15-15. Not exactly setting the conference on fire. Arkansas then traveled for regionals.
Yes they finished ranked #3 in the country. Doesn't change the fact that they didn't play as well in conference play as they should have. How many SEC teams did Arky beat in in regionals and Omaha?
Posted on 12/27/12 at 1:54 pm to bas456
quote:Yes. In basic terms LSU scored 13% more runs than they should have based on their offensive statistics. (For comparison the actual SEC runs produced was only .02% difference of expected production) When you look at Pythagorean expectation using just extrapolated runs and runs allowed LSU would have about 6 less wins than they actually had (overall).
Are you saying LSU won more games than the stats say they should have? In SEC games, LSU finished 4th in hitting, 3rd in pitching and 3rd in defense.
Wins are wins, and don't take this as a knock on LSU's season last year. It's relevant for projection purposes though. Teams will always vary from extrapolated production, but any difference over 3-5% should be expected to decrease significantly as the sample size increases. College baseball is always wild due to the relatively small sample size each season.
This post was edited on 12/27/12 at 2:00 pm
Posted on 12/27/12 at 1:56 pm to bubbz
We beat one SEC team in NCAA play. That's all we faced.
Posted on 12/27/12 at 1:57 pm to Hawgeye
FAHR CMG
Posted on 12/27/12 at 2:04 pm to BalladofBradSowell
quote:
In basic terms LSU scored 13% more runs than they should have based on their offensive statistics.
LSU was first in the SEC in runs scored and RBI.
Posted on 12/27/12 at 2:07 pm to bubbz
quote:
I said conference play jackass....Arkansas finished what 16-14 in conference or it may have been 15-15. Not exactly setting the conference on fire. Arkansas then traveled for regionals.
Honestly, I have to agree with this. We always have a mid-season slump then get hot after we rest in Hoover. I actually expect us to finish 2nd or 3rd in the west but finish the season ranked the highest nationally, similar to last year.
I think '04 was the only time we actually won the west and still made it to Omaha.
Posted on 12/27/12 at 2:07 pm to Hawgeye
Why do I see people having MSU like 5th in their predictions? That is a dangerous team.
Posted on 12/27/12 at 2:11 pm to sorantable
quote:
Because Cohen can't coach
How do you explain him being 24-17 in his career vs Mike Bianco... including winning 8 of 10 head to head series?
Posted on 12/27/12 at 2:12 pm to engie
GFY engie
Posted on 12/27/12 at 2:13 pm to TigersOfGeauxld
quote:Yeah, which is more than they should have.
LSU was first in the SEC in runs scored and RBI
Extrapolated Runs = (.50 × 1B) + (.72 × 2B) + (1.04 × 3B) + (1.44 × HR) + (.34 × (HP+BB-IBB)) + (.25 × IBB)+ (.18 × SB) + (-.32 × CS) + (-.090 × (AB - H - K)) + (-.098 x K)+ (-.37 × GIDP) + (.37 x SF) + (.04 × SH)+ (.5 x (1 - league FLD%)(AB-H-SO))
This measures a team's expected production based on core stats. Plug in LSU's numbers and this number is 13% below actual. This means they scored a lot more runs than they should have. The SEC as a whole only saw a .02% difference in 2012. Follow?
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