NCAA Bubble Watch: SEC Basketball

ESPN writer Neil Paine expects up to 9 SEC teams to make the NCAA Tournament this year, with 2 others on the bubble. Here's the breakdown:

Locks (5):
Florida
Vanderbilt
Tennessee
Alabama
Arkansas

Should be in (4):
Kentucky
Georgia
Texas A&M
Auburn

Work to do (2):
Texas
Missouri Tigers

quote:

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Texas:
Texas' five-game winning streak came to an end Saturday at Georgia. Going into the day, the consensus forecast gave the Longhorns better than an 80% at-large chance -- up from 45% three weeks ago -- and the 91-80 road loss dropped them down to a consensus 70% at-large probability. They still have more Quadrant 1 wins than newly promoted Texas A&M, though. They're also ninth in the conference in résumé rankings (borderline top 40 nationally), and better than that in the predictive rating (consistently around the top 35). The loss to Georgia was just the first leg of a tough remaining slate, with three of their final four regular-season contests against Quadrant 1 opponents, which helps explain why their odds aren't higher.
Next game: vs. Florida (Wednesday)


Missouri:
After winning four of its previous five games, Missouri couldn't close a second-half gap as a big underdog at Arkansas on Saturday. The Tigers still rank just 11th among SEC teams in the résumé average (borderline top 50 nationally), a tough spot to be in with the conference projected for 10-11 tournament entries. They do have a trio of Quadrant 1-A wins over Florida, Kentucky and Vanderbilt. And in many ways, they are the anti-Auburn: They have a much better record (18-9 vs. 15-12) against a much easier schedule (66th hardest vs. fourth). While the top models and résumé composites favor Auburn mathematically, Missouri still has a case from a W-L perspective.
Next game: vs. Tennessee (Tuesday)

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