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re: Year by Year Decisions by the CFP Playoff Committee
Posted on 11/17/19 at 3:33 pm to meansonny
Posted on 11/17/19 at 3:33 pm to meansonny
Head to head does matter but it doesn’t trump 2 losses. Also who you lose to how you win and lose seats opinions. Penn State list to Pitt and got blown out by Michigan. They beat Ohio State with a flukish block kick ran back for a TD. Don’t lose two games and they are in.
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Posted on 11/17/19 at 5:01 pm to WG_Dawg
A+ for effort.
Posted on 11/24/19 at 12:20 pm to WG_Dawg
bump.
The status quo mostly remained from the wekeend with the big exception being oregon, who wiht their 2nd loss has now played their way out even wiht a conference championship.
Clemson, OSU, Utah, OU, Baylor, LSU, and UGA are in the main drivers seats, with IMO minnesota being an interesting wildcard.
Clemson is almost surely going undefeated and lockign in a spot. The SEC is 100% locking in a spot (unless we somehow lose to tech which seems very unlikely). Although minnesota may try to make things interesting, OSU is pretty likely going undefeated and locking in a spot.
None of that is any different than how things looked last week. OU tried to frick things up but held on, so the winner of the Big 12 will likely have 1 loss. If the pac12 wants to have any chance they obviously need utah to win out and beat OU. Oregon winnin the conference would eliminate any chance they have. Bama is still very much on the outside looking in.
The status quo mostly remained from the wekeend with the big exception being oregon, who wiht their 2nd loss has now played their way out even wiht a conference championship.
Clemson, OSU, Utah, OU, Baylor, LSU, and UGA are in the main drivers seats, with IMO minnesota being an interesting wildcard.
Clemson is almost surely going undefeated and lockign in a spot. The SEC is 100% locking in a spot (unless we somehow lose to tech which seems very unlikely). Although minnesota may try to make things interesting, OSU is pretty likely going undefeated and locking in a spot.
None of that is any different than how things looked last week. OU tried to frick things up but held on, so the winner of the Big 12 will likely have 1 loss. If the pac12 wants to have any chance they obviously need utah to win out and beat OU. Oregon winnin the conference would eliminate any chance they have. Bama is still very much on the outside looking in.
Posted on 11/24/19 at 2:01 pm to WG_Dawg
Bama only needs to beat auburn, Oregon to beat Utah, and LSU to beat uga to have a strong case for a spot.
Posted on 11/24/19 at 2:17 pm to djsdawg
quote:
Bama only needs to beat auburn, Oregon to beat Utah, and LSU to beat uga to have a strong case for a spot.
they would still be behind a 1-loss Big12 champ. The only way bama goes is if 2 conferences (in the case of this year, it'd be the big 12 and pac12) have 2-loss champs. That's of course assuming OSU and clemson win out.
Posted on 11/24/19 at 2:32 pm to WG_Dawg
I am not convinced ou or Baylor jump bama.
Posted on 11/24/19 at 2:36 pm to djsdawg
that's fine. I am convinced based on what the committee has shown us every year so far, if they deviate from that there'd be no way to predict it ahead of time. The committee has shown that winning your conference is extremely important, and the only way (thus far) to make it without a conference title is needing multiple conference winners to have multiple losses. That wouldn't be the case in this scenario so I have no reason to believe they woudl jump bama up there.
In other years it would be easier to justify but ESPECIALLY not this year, when bama has only played 1 good team and lost, and as the moment has zero ranked wins. If they do win out they'll have a single ranked win all season over a team wiht 4 losses. Not to mention the biggest reason they're as good as they are is no longer playing.
In other years it would be easier to justify but ESPECIALLY not this year, when bama has only played 1 good team and lost, and as the moment has zero ranked wins. If they do win out they'll have a single ranked win all season over a team wiht 4 losses. Not to mention the biggest reason they're as good as they are is no longer playing.
Posted on 11/24/19 at 2:41 pm to djsdawg
Possibly the more interesting scenario is if Georgia upsets LSU in the SECCG. OSU and Clemson would move up one to #1 and #2 respectively. Georgia should move up to #3 and LSU should drop down to #4. This could potentially leave the Pac12 and the Big 12 Champions on the outside looking in.
Posted on 11/24/19 at 2:47 pm to GurleyGirl
quote:
Possibly the more interesting scenario is if Georgia upsets LSU in the SECCG
I agree, and I don't have an educated answser for that becuase we havne't seen an apples to apples comparison so far in the playoff era. The closest would be 2015 when Iowa was undefeated and in the top 4 playing a 1-loss MSU in the CCG. MSU won and went to the playoffs and a 12-1 non-champ Iowa dropped to 5th. The big difference obviously is the LSU is #1 instead of 3/4 and they have a fantastic resume unlike iowa.
While I fully and wholeheartedly believe LSU is one of the 4 best teams regardless of what happens, and they would wipe the floor with any combo of baylor/ou/utah..I'm not 100% convinced they would still be in the playoffs. The only reason I say that is becuase one thing that has been constant every year so far is if you don't win your conference, you need a lot of hel pin front of you in the way of 2-loss teams. That wouldn't apply this year, as 1-loss non-chmp LSU would be competing with 1-loss P5 champions. Granted LSU would still have a better resume than any of them and it wouldn't shock me in the slightest to see them in, but I feel like I'm the only one that wouldnt' be surprised to see them left out either.
Another thing to think abotu is how willing would the committee be to put 2 teams in that just played each other? We know what a UGa/LSU game result would be at that point because we woudl have just seen it. The only other time ('17) that 2 teams from a conference got in they hadn't played before so it was a little easier to swallow. I wonder if the committee would be hesitatnt to see uga beat LSU in early december then have them play again a month later.
Posted on 11/24/19 at 2:55 pm to WG_Dawg
This committee doesn’t respect the top of the big 12 at all.
Posted on 11/24/19 at 3:01 pm to djsdawg
quote:
This committee doesn’t respect the top of the big 12 at all.
you (and everyone, not just you) need to realize that the rankings right now are netirely irrelevant. They mean nothing. Everythign important is going ot be settled CCG weekend when we get:
LSU v UGA
Baylor v OU
Oregon v Utah
OSU v Minnesota
Those 4 games are 100% going to determine 3 of the 4 playoff spots. Where the committee has the big 12 right now couldn't mean any less.
Posted on 11/24/19 at 3:05 pm to WG_Dawg
It would definitely be a very unpopular decision to again include 2 SEC teams but it the goal is truly to get the 4 best teams, then I believe it would be the correct call. I mean if you beat #1 and only have 1 loss, you should certainly be in and the #1 team should not drop out of the playoffs for a single loss with LSU's strength of schedule.
Posted on 11/24/19 at 3:05 pm to WG_Dawg
It simply means they might not value the big 12 championship as much as you think. A close loss to LSU might have impressed them a ton, just as it did in 2011, and a close loss to bama did for uga in 2018.
Posted on 11/24/19 at 3:16 pm to GurleyGirl
quote:
but it the goal is truly to get the 4 best teams
I don't think that's the goal, it should be the most deserving teams. If it was simply "best" then why not go ahead and put LSU in now? Or Ohio state? I mean is there any outcome that would convince people those aren't 2 of the best teams?
Posted on 11/24/19 at 3:18 pm to djsdawg
quote:
It simply means they might not value the big 12 championship as much as you think
Maybe, I'm just saying I think they value conference champions very highly, period.
quote:
A close loss to LSU might have impressed them a ton, just as it did in 2011
that's not the playoff era so doesn't really have much to do with now
quote:
and a close loss to bama did for uga in 2018.
that didn't help us at all, it gave us our 2nd loss and ended our playoff chances.
Again, only 2 teams out of 20 have made the playoffs without winning the conference. I would be stunned if this year makes a 3rd.
Posted on 11/24/19 at 8:38 pm to WG_Dawg
2011 still had humans picking who played in the 2 team playoff. They picked non champ.
2018 humans had 2 loss non chemo uga ahead of big 10 champ Ohio st.
Quality losses are a thing from time to time.
2018 humans had 2 loss non chemo uga ahead of big 10 champ Ohio st.
Quality losses are a thing from time to time.
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