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re: The SECRant Season Poll Results

Posted on 8/16/24 at 12:21 pm to
Posted by Lonnie Utah
Utah!
Member since Jul 2012
32599 posts
Posted on 8/16/24 at 12:21 pm to
Based upon the info given in the thread...

quote:

I wonder why South Carolina was favored by 80% of respondents in every one of their matchups?


And some fancy math, here are some estimated/updated results...

South Carolina (12-0)
Old Dominion 100.0% W
At Kentucky 89.2% W
LSU 82.4% W
Ole Miss 84.8% W
At Alabama 83.4% W
At Oklahoma 82.4% W
Texas A&M 88.8% W
At Vanderbilt 95.2% W
Missouri 83.2% W
At Clemson 94.8% W

The rant has spoken.
Posted by FootballFrenzy
Chief of the Grammar Police
Member since Oct 2023
8886 posts
Posted on 8/16/24 at 12:38 pm to
quote:

And some fancy math, here are some estimated/updated results...

Not too shabby.
This post was edited on 8/16/24 at 12:46 pm
Posted by Lonnie Utah
Utah!
Member since Jul 2012
32599 posts
Posted on 8/16/24 at 1:07 pm to
This ain't my first rodeo kid...
Posted by FootballFrenzy
Chief of the Grammar Police
Member since Oct 2023
8886 posts
Posted on 8/16/24 at 1:08 pm to
quote:

This ain't my first rodeo kid...

I thought you were kidding.

There's no way you could have figured out the actual results based on what I posted.
Posted by Lonnie Utah
Utah!
Member since Jul 2012
32599 posts
Posted on 8/16/24 at 1:13 pm to
quote:

There's no way you could have figured out the actual results based on what I posted.


No, but I could make an estimation. (which is likely good enough in a poll posted for "fun".)

If 52 votes represent the 20% of the total (based on what you posted) then that means there were an estimated total of 260 votes. That means you discarded approximately 208 votes.

Then you take the totals from before and break them apart based on the percentages in the first thread. (52 * x%). Then you add back in the 208 votes to the win column and you get the above percentages.

I couldn't have known, but I can make some guesses based upon information gleaned from the thread. Again, this is just for fun (right?) and doing simple math was a fun way to exercise my brain.

We'll see how close I was if and when you update the OP...

This post was edited on 8/16/24 at 1:23 pm
Posted by FootballFrenzy
Chief of the Grammar Police
Member since Oct 2023
8886 posts
Posted on 8/16/24 at 2:11 pm to
Fair enough.
Posted by Archibald
Member since Apr 2024
1979 posts
Posted on 8/16/24 at 2:12 pm to
quote:

There's no way you could have figured out the actual results based on what I posted.
Probably because you went out of your way to change the results after you didn’t like what you saw
Posted by FootballFrenzy
Chief of the Grammar Police
Member since Oct 2023
8886 posts
Posted on 8/16/24 at 2:30 pm to
quote:

No, but I could make an estimation. (which is likely good enough in a poll posted for "fun".)

If 52 votes represent the 20% of the total (based on what you posted) then that means there were an estimated total of 260 votes. That means you discarded approximately 208 votes.

Then you take the totals from before and break them apart based on the percentages in the first thread. (52 * x%). Then you add back in the 208 votes to the win column and you get the above percentages.

I couldn't have known, but I can make some guesses based upon information gleaned from the thread. Again, this is just for fun (right?) and doing simple math was a fun way to exercise my brain.

We'll see how close I was if and when you update the OP...

I forgot to mention that I threw out incomplete polls.
Posted by FootballFrenzy
Chief of the Grammar Police
Member since Oct 2023
8886 posts
Posted on 8/16/24 at 2:37 pm to
I also should mention that school starts on Monday and I'll have limited access to this website, so it'll probably be awhile before I post the raw survey, but I will post it someday.
Posted by Lonnie Utah
Utah!
Member since Jul 2012
32599 posts
Posted on 8/16/24 at 2:47 pm to
quote:

The remaining responses were compiled and analyzed on a game-per-game basis (for example, responses for Auburn vs Kentucky and responses for Kentucky vs Auburn were added) and used to determine the winner.


Yet another fly in the ointment when Alabama has 103 votes and Kentucky only has 51 votes.

This explains why LSU with 182 votes (far and away the highest number of poll votes) was predicted to go 12-0. If you look at just the SEC matchups and take the number of votes that came from the LSU poll vs their opponents poll you get the following:

These are the percentages of the votes in the matchups that came from just the LSU side of the poll.

At South Carolina 77%
Ole Miss 72.8%
At Arkansas 55.1%
At Texas A&M 64.7%
Alabama 64.4%
At Florida 77.1%
Vanderbilt 88%
Oklahoma 58.9%

Compared to the actual poll results you can see some of the built in bias.

At South Carolina 88% W
Ole Miss 56% W
At Arkansas 88% W
At Texas A&M 72% W
Alabama 51% W
At Florida 84% W
Vanderbilt 88% W
Oklahoma 79% W

For example, look at both Ole Miss and Bama. Both of those have higher percentage of LSU voters than actual poll results. This could indicate that a majority of unbiased voters thought these two teams would beat LSU. But those results are lost in the noise because of a greater than 2-1 advantage of LSU votes that came from the LSU poll.
This post was edited on 8/16/24 at 4:19 pm
Posted by Lonnie Utah
Utah!
Member since Jul 2012
32599 posts
Posted on 8/16/24 at 2:52 pm to
quote:

I forgot to mention that I threw out incomplete polls.



Which is also bogus because it simply means people might not have had an opinion on some games because of lack of information. But it doesn't mean the votes they did submit are INVALID.

For example, if someone votes for president, their congressman, senator and governor does that mean their ballot is invalid if they do not vote for dog catcher, city or town council? No.
This post was edited on 8/16/24 at 2:56 pm
Posted by FootballFrenzy
Chief of the Grammar Police
Member since Oct 2023
8886 posts
Posted on 8/16/24 at 3:02 pm to
quote:

Yet another fly in the onement when Alabama has 103 votes and Kentucky only has 51 votes.

That's not how you spell ointment.

And you know what? Screw it. This poll was for fun. I never expected it to be a serious thing. I'm sorry that you weren't able to get any enjoyment out of it.

I've changed my mind. I'm not going to post that survey.

Have a good day.
Posted by FootballFrenzy
Chief of the Grammar Police
Member since Oct 2023
8886 posts
Posted on 8/16/24 at 3:03 pm to
quote:

At South Carolina 77%
Ole Miss 72.8%
At Arkansas 55.1%
At Texas A&M 64.7%
Alabama 64.4%
At Florida 77.1%
Vanderbilt 88%
Oklahoma 58.9%.


How did you get those numbers?
Posted by OU Guy
Member since Feb 2022
24789 posts
Posted on 8/16/24 at 3:16 pm to
Something is fishy. The volume of votes per team doesn’t seem to match volume of posters here. OU at 127 when Bama is at 103? No way we have 127 fans voting here so there was likely a lot of troll votes. And no way we have more fans posting here than Bama. Just an observation, but it would skew results to not have real fans vote for each team.
Posted by FootballFrenzy
Chief of the Grammar Police
Member since Oct 2023
8886 posts
Posted on 8/16/24 at 3:18 pm to
quote:

Something is fishy. The volume of votes per team doesn’t seem to match volume of posters here. OU at 127 when Bama is at 103? No way we have 127 fans voting here so there was likely a lot of troll votes. And no way we have more fans posting here than Bama. Just an observation, but it would skew results to not have real fans vote for each team.

We have established that this entire survey is bogus.

Welcome to the thread.

Have fun with it or don't. It's up to you.
Posted by OU Guy
Member since Feb 2022
24789 posts
Posted on 8/16/24 at 3:45 pm to
quote:

We have established that this entire survey is bogus.

Welcome to the thread.

Have fun with it or don't. It's up to you.


Did not read thread only your OP. And it was a serious question. I like to know what methods are used to do polling. Same as weekly coaches poll they at least list the coach and how they ranked teams. Thru that method you can see who is spoiling the results.

If a bunch of bots dod your poll then its worthless. I appreciate how much effort you put in but at the same time you posted it here so its open to scrutiny.
Posted by Lonnie Utah
Utah!
Member since Jul 2012
32599 posts
Posted on 8/16/24 at 4:05 pm to
quote:

That's not how you spell ointment.


I'm old with bad eyes. It happens.
Posted by Lonnie Utah
Utah!
Member since Jul 2012
32599 posts
Posted on 8/16/24 at 4:08 pm to
quote:

Just an observation, but it would skew results to not have real fans vote for each team.


It depends. Texas fans voting for (or against) OU I would guess would definitely skew the results to the negative. Tennessee fans voting for OU maybe, maybe not.

Edit to add: The OP suggested that A&M was getting thrashed in the poll So after thinking about what you posted for a second. The picture is becoming clearer...
This post was edited on 8/16/24 at 4:26 pm
Posted by RelentlessTide
Member since Feb 2020
4118 posts
Posted on 8/16/24 at 4:09 pm to
Obviously, this was not weighted based on fanbase participation.
Posted by Lonnie Utah
Utah!
Member since Jul 2012
32599 posts
Posted on 8/16/24 at 4:14 pm to
quote:

How did you get those numbers?


I'll do one and you can figure out the rest.

There were 103 Bama voters in their poll. There were 182 LSU voters. You said you combined them. So 103 + 182 = 285.

182/285 = 64.4%

Did you tally up things a different way?

(FWIW I didn't get SC correct as I rounded wrong when I didn't include the 1st sig digit. It really should be 77.7%)
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