A ten year look at rankings comparing preseason and end of championship week.

I'm using the top 12 of the AP preseason poll and the top 12 of the committee's rankings. Two different rankings I know, but it's the system we have and it doesn't make much sense to use the AP's Champ. week rankings as they are meaningless by that point.

The purpose is to see how often teams who are presumed to be current format playoff contenders actually hold that position throughout a college football season.

Percentage of teams finishing in the CFP final top 12 that started in the AP top 12.
Second stat is teams finishing in the CFP final top 12 that started in the AP top 5.

2014: Top 12 50%; Top 5 80%
2015: Top 12 58%; Top 5 80%
2016: Top 12 50%; Top 5 80%
2017: Top 12 75%; Top 5 80%
2018: Top 12 67%; Top 5 80%
2019: Top 12 58%; Top 5 80%
2020: Top 12 58%; Top 5 100%
2021: Top 12 42%; Top 5 60%
2022: Top 12 50%; Top 5 80%
2023: Top 12 67%; Top 5 80%

69 of 120 teams ranked in the top 12 to start the year also finished in the top 12 in the CFP final poll. That's 57.5%

40 of 50 teams ranked in the top 5 to start the year also finished in the top 12 in the CFP final poll. That's 80%.

29 of 70 teams ranked from 6-12 to start the year also finished in the top 12 in the CFP final poll. That's 41.4%.


The 6-12 range still yields a decent chance of keeping your ranking at the end and thus having an extremely good shot at the playoff (some years a 12th ranked team wouldn't get in due to a severe underdog winning a conference or a non P5 not being ranked inside the top 12). Still, it's quite a drop off from starting in the top 5.

Most top 12 starts with total top 12 finishes in the same year in parenthesis.

Ohio State 10 (10)
Alabama 10 (9)
Clemson 9 (7)
Georgia 8 (6)
Oklahoma 8 (5)
Notre Dame 7 (4)
Oregon 6 (2)
Florida St. 5 (4)
Michigan 5 (3)
Auburn 5 (1)
Penn St. 4 (3)
Michigan St. 4 (2)
LSU 4 (1)
Wisconsin 4 (1)
Washington 3 (3)
Baylor 3 (1)
USC 3 (1)
Texas A&M 3 (0)
Florida 2 (2)
Texas2 (1)
Oklahoma St. 2 (0)
Stanford 2 (0)
Tennessee 2 (0)
Cincinnati 1 (1)
TCU 1 (1)
Utah 1 (1)
Iowa St. 1 (0)
Miami 1 (0)
N. Carolina 1 (0)
Ole Miss 1 (0)
S. Carolina 1 (0)
UCLA 1 (0)


Multiple Top 5 starts with top 12 finishes. Top 12 finishes in those seasons are in parenthesis.

Alabama 10 (9)
Ohio State 9 (9)
Clemson 7 (6)
Georgia 6 (6)
Oklahoma 5 (3)
FSU 3 (2)
LSU 2 (0)