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re: Freeze talks recruiting, depth, and season expectations
Posted on 6/5/13 at 10:50 am to TupeloReb
Posted on 6/5/13 at 10:50 am to TupeloReb
Man last year was a fluke and we should have never done as well as we did JMO. Doesn't mean I ain't as happy as hell that we did though.
I just think this coming year will be a tough test for us ... though if we are 3-0 going into Bama, WATCH OUT SEC ... WATCH OUT!
I just think this coming year will be a tough test for us ... though if we are 3-0 going into Bama, WATCH OUT SEC ... WATCH OUT!
3
Posted on 6/5/13 at 10:52 am to McRebel42
I don't know if I'd say fluke. Maybe our guys played beyond the potential we thought they had but I don't know about a fluke
Posted on 6/5/13 at 10:56 am to McRebel42
quote:
Man last year was a fluke and we should have never done as well as we did JMO.
I wouldn't say it was a fluke, but we definitely lucked up having Aub/Ark having their worst seasons in years
Posted on 6/5/13 at 11:16 am to TupeloReb
Everything about that post, while POSSIBLE is at best, improbable.
Of course, you're welcome to your opinion and it's a free country so you can share it with anyone you choose.
But when OM fans are all twisted up and hand wringing after losing a couple games they marked up as wins in 2014, you'll only have people like yourself to blame for inflated expectations and the perception that "Freeze isn't getting it done like we thought he would" or "we should be further along right now than we are" or "we shouldn't be losing games to teams like (blank) in year 3".
Just backoff a little. Relax. Don't worry so much about W's and L's in years 1-3. What we need to focus on is recruiting, scheme and systems, effort, fundamentals, attitude and experience and avoiding huge, embarrassing loses to FBS teams. As long as those things are improving every year, I'm satisfied, regardless of what the W's and L's look like.
Let's talk about expectations once the foundation is set and we have talent and depth at all positions.
Of course, you're welcome to your opinion and it's a free country so you can share it with anyone you choose.
But when OM fans are all twisted up and hand wringing after losing a couple games they marked up as wins in 2014, you'll only have people like yourself to blame for inflated expectations and the perception that "Freeze isn't getting it done like we thought he would" or "we should be further along right now than we are" or "we shouldn't be losing games to teams like (blank) in year 3".
Just backoff a little. Relax. Don't worry so much about W's and L's in years 1-3. What we need to focus on is recruiting, scheme and systems, effort, fundamentals, attitude and experience and avoiding huge, embarrassing loses to FBS teams. As long as those things are improving every year, I'm satisfied, regardless of what the W's and L's look like.
Let's talk about expectations once the foundation is set and we have talent and depth at all positions.
This post was edited on 6/5/13 at 11:18 am
Posted on 6/5/13 at 11:18 am to Fipitan
Yes, but if we only win 5 games this year how could we possibly improve? That is what I am asking
quote:Explain how. Explain to me how it is improbable we win 7+ games this year.
Everything about that post, while POSSIBLE is at best, improbable.
This post was edited on 6/5/13 at 11:22 am
Posted on 6/5/13 at 11:21 am to TupeloReb
Semantics & phrasing ... that's all.
point still stands we played better than we probably should have and Arky & Aubie were much worse than they should have been.
These things got us to that bowl game.
ETA: I know Freeze had a hand it I'm not ever going say that he didn't ... trust me I'd dare say I'm a bigger Freeze guy than all of you.
point still stands we played better than we probably should have and Arky & Aubie were much worse than they should have been.
These things got us to that bowl game.
ETA: I know Freeze had a hand it I'm not ever going say that he didn't ... trust me I'd dare say I'm a bigger Freeze guy than all of you.
This post was edited on 6/5/13 at 11:23 am
Posted on 6/5/13 at 11:22 am to McRebel42
As many things that went right, there were several instances of it not. We beat Vandy. That mark on 4th down is documented bullshite. We should have beaten A&M. Evans shoved Senquez down on that 3rd and 17 and Manziel had a heisman moment. We werent lucky to beat any of the teams we beat. Our luck was lack on injuries on the OL. I would say a lack of injury to Bo but he played hurt half the season. Think how different that LSU game could have been if Bo was 100% healthy. If Denzel didnt get that helmet to helmet call against Mett when Denzel can't touch his helmet to Mett's neck. Yes if we have more injuries, especially season ending ones then we are screwed..... But...... If we can keep our guys healthy then we can win every game on our schedule aside from Bama. This is when depth erases those doubts in the future. But for now our range of wins can stretch from 5-10.
I don't think it's being optimistic nor pessimistic to assume we split our tough, but winnable road games between Texas, Vandy, AU and State. 7 regular season wins is the most realistic prediction but like I said, it is a big range.
I don't think it's being optimistic nor pessimistic to assume we split our tough, but winnable road games between Texas, Vandy, AU and State. 7 regular season wins is the most realistic prediction but like I said, it is a big range.
This post was edited on 6/5/13 at 11:25 am
Posted on 6/5/13 at 11:24 am to McRebel42
I'll agree with that. However, I do think our team that very well could have beaten LSU, A&M, and should have beaten Vandy last year will be even better this year, and that is very encouraging IMO
This post was edited on 6/5/13 at 11:25 am
Posted on 6/5/13 at 11:24 am to Whereisomaha
I agree with everything said there.
Posted on 6/5/13 at 11:24 am to Fipitan
quote:
Don't worry so much about W's and L's in years 1-3. What we need to focus on is recruiting, scheme and systems, effort, fundamentals, attitude and experience and avoiding huge, embarrassing loses to FBS teams. As long as those things are improving every year, I'm satisfied, regardless of what the W's and L's look like.
Let's talk about expectations once the foundation is set and we have talent and depth at all positions.
This post was edited on 6/5/13 at 11:26 am
Posted on 6/5/13 at 11:26 am to TupeloReb
Very simple. If we win the games in which we are favored and lose the games in which we are not favored by slim margins, last second plays or bad bounces/calls it's VERY possible to improve while it doesn't show in the W column.
We can very well play a better, more aggressive, more competent, mistake free, better brand of football and still lose more games than we win.
In years 1-3 (and ONLY in years 1-3) that should be acceptable. Especially when we play in the SECW.
You mention Arky and Aub as probable wins because of the state of their programs. It's possible that they BOTH have years like we did in 2012. They might both play over their heads for a new coach and end up winning those games against us in 2013 because we are experimenting with players, positions, schemes or have injuries. If we lose both of them in close games with reasonable scores, I will not freak out and neither should you.
I will be pissed off and I'll probably come on here spouting some angry bullshite. But once I calm down and realize that a 100% OM team would have beaten that 100% Aub team, I'll be satisfied.
All bets are off if we get blown off the field by either of those teams.
We can very well play a better, more aggressive, more competent, mistake free, better brand of football and still lose more games than we win.
In years 1-3 (and ONLY in years 1-3) that should be acceptable. Especially when we play in the SECW.
You mention Arky and Aub as probable wins because of the state of their programs. It's possible that they BOTH have years like we did in 2012. They might both play over their heads for a new coach and end up winning those games against us in 2013 because we are experimenting with players, positions, schemes or have injuries. If we lose both of them in close games with reasonable scores, I will not freak out and neither should you.
I will be pissed off and I'll probably come on here spouting some angry bullshite. But once I calm down and realize that a 100% OM team would have beaten that 100% Aub team, I'll be satisfied.
All bets are off if we get blown off the field by either of those teams.
Posted on 6/5/13 at 11:30 am to Fipitan
quote:
You mention Arky and Aub as probable wins because of the state of their programs. It's possible that they BOTH have years like we did in 2012. They might both play over their heads for a new coach and end up winning those games against us in 2013 because we are experimenting with players, positions, schemes or have injuries. If we lose both of them in close games with reasonable scores, I will not freak out and neither should you.
Just because something is possible or "might" happen doesn't mean it's probable.
Posted on 6/5/13 at 11:31 am to TupeloReb
quote:
Just because something is possible or "might" happen doesn't mean it's probable
I saw what you did there.
Posted on 6/5/13 at 11:32 am to Whereisomaha
quote:
But for now our range of wins can stretch from 5-10.
I don't think it's being optimistic nor pessimistic to assume we split our tough, but winnable road games between Texas, Vandy, AU and State. 7 regular season wins is the most realistic prediction but like I said, it is a big range.
I completely agree with you but tbh if the team improves like I think they will I'm gonna go ahead and say it we should be 10-2 with our schedule next year.
Losses Bama & either one of these aTm/Texas
But in saying that if I can tell the team has improved and it seems that the foundation is continued to be laid I'm okay with 6-7 wins because I know we have the right coach in place to make us better.
Posted on 6/5/13 at 11:35 am to McRebel42
I guess my whole point is if we win 5 games we don't improve because if we only win 5 that means there are 2 or 3 games that we should have won and had the better team that we didn't win.
Posted on 6/5/13 at 11:47 am to TupeloReb
quote:
Explain how. Explain to me how it is improbable we win 7+ games this year.
It comes down to a million little things that no matter how hard he tries, are not controllable by Freeze. 2012 was a confluence of so many lucky things happening to us that we won 6 games. Sure, we also had unlucky things happen to take away up to 3 additional wins. But that only bolsters my point. Had we had absolutely zero luck (bad or good) last season and only won the games in which we were favored, we'd have only won what... 4?
Therefore, it is literally impossible to speculate about what kind of luck we'll have (good or bad) on any given saturday, against teams more or less talented, at home or away, with injuries or without, etc, etc, etc.
I'm simply saying that Freeze is going to try to minimize the effects of bad luck by preparing our team with the best players, conditioned the best, taught the best, practiced the best, with the best plays and the best calls and the best coaches that he possibly can. We as fans need to ignore luck (good and bad) and focus on the things I listed that Freeze CAN control and base our evaluation of the team on those things only.
You're basing your 7 wins on the fact that with a bit MORE good luck, we might have won 9 last year. When you need to avoid consideration of luck at all and focus on the tangible, observable, conscious measurables of our football team.
Posted on 6/5/13 at 11:51 am to TupeloReb
quote:
I guess my whole point is if we win 5 games we don't improve because if we only win 5 that means there are 2 or 3 games that we should have won and had the better team that we didn't win.
This entire statement is fine with me. If we're talking about year 4 in Freezes tenure.
In years 1-3, I'm saying we have to put most of the emphasis on metrics and measureables OTHER than wins and loses.
Posted on 6/5/13 at 11:53 am to TupeloReb
quote:
if we win 5 games we don't improve because if we only win 5 that means there are 2 or 3 games that we should have won and had the better team that we didn't win.
You are not taking into account that other teams can improve over the course of an offseason as well. Who is to say we will be favored against all the teams you think we will?
Posted on 6/5/13 at 12:00 pm to UMRealist
I think we improve just as much is what I'm saying. Who knows though, it's the SEC. One team can go 0-8 one year and then to a cotton bowl the next, so you never know.
Posted on 6/5/13 at 12:02 pm to TupeloReb
quote:
One team can go 0-8 one year and then to a cotton bowl the next, so you never know.
Exactly, and in a conference as volatile as this statement implies, how can we even BEGIN to develop fair and reasonable win and loss expectations in year #2 of a new coach's reign?
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