re: How far does Bama fall when Saban leaves?

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When your on top there is only one direction to go.

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Alabama has won at least one SEC title and at least one 10 win season every decade the conference has existed. Since the end of the second world war, they've won at least two every decade except the 1950s and 2000s (won the west 3 times that decade). They've failed to be bowl eligible 4 times in the 58 years since Bear Bryant became the head coach.

There will certainly be a drop, but the historical floor at Bama is still very elite real estate.