re: If an undefeated Moo St loses to 2-loss UGA in the SECCG

I think if MSU only has one loss, even in the SECCG, they’re probably in no matter what (maybe baring a Prescott injury and a blowout). This doesn’t necessarily mean UGA and MSU couldn’t both go.

Here’s the way I see UGA’s chances (with some ESPN FPI stats to show how it’s really not as far-fetched as many are making it out to be:

All of the following assumes UGA wins out, including in the SECCG. (Which obviously means Missouri has to lose 1 more game. They should be the underdog in all three remaining games, so this is very likely)

There are a maximum of 6 teams standing in UGA’s way:

1. OSU or Neb. (1 of them guaranteed to lose)
2. Oregon or AZ St. (1 of them guaranteed to lose)
3. TCU
4. Baylor
5. MSU
6. FSU

UGA only needs 2-3 (explained below) of the following to happen in order to get in (ranked roughly according to how likely I think they are to happen):

1. FSU loses = 1 more game (67% likely according to ESPN’s FPI, still has MIA, UF, ACCCG)
2. MSU loses to Bama (74% likely) and Ole Miss (68% likely)
3. Neb. loses to Wisc., Minn. or Iowa (63%, 24%, 29% likely) and OSU loses = 1 more game (55% likely)
4. Baylor loses = 1 more game (34% likely according to ESPN FPI, still has KSU)
5. TCU loses = 1 more game (32% likely according to ESPN FPI, still has Texas)
6. AZ St. loses to OR St., WA St., or AZ (26%, 17%, 56% likely) and Oregon loses in PAC10CG (they’ll be favored, probably heavily, against anyone)

Note:
If #2 doesn’t happen, we need 3 of the others to happen because 1 loss MSU would be in ahead of the 2-loss SECC

If #2 does happen, we might only need 1 of either #1 or the second half of #3 to happen because:
I don’t think Baylor and TCU would both be in if it means excluding the SEC
I don’t think 1-loss FSU or 1-loss Neb. would be in if it means excluding the SEC

If #2 does happen and neither #1 nor the second half of #3 happens, we probably still need 2 others to happen

Thoughts? Have I watched the "Gurely Coming Home" video one too many times?