re: Bama owns 10% of the nation's Top 100 with ten months to go.

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Recruiting is the definition of guesswork, whether those decisions are educated guesses or not doesn't matter, still guess work.

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That's like saying psychology is guess work. It's not. You use statistics and evaluation to determine the ability of a player just like you use statistics (medical work) and evaluation to determine if someone is mentally fit.

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I agree to some extent, but when you shoot craps, there is a quantifiable probability that you will roll your point before you crap out. That certainty is not there in recruiting.

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There is a quantifiable probability that a school with a 10 ten recruiting class will win the MNC vs a school outside the top 10.

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Sure, there is a greater chance that a player who is highly touted will pan out, but there is absolutely no way to know what that probability is.

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Sure there is. Go look at what players are drafted in the first three rounds of the NFL draft, make All-Conference/American teams and see who was in the Top 100 coming out of high school.

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There are so many different factors that go in to recruiting and there are plenty of examples of 3 star recruiting becoming all americans and 5 star busts.

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Yes just like there are many examples of someone making 10 or more points in a row at craps or hitting the Yo on three straight rolls (saw that myself).