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USC (Potentially) Shafted
Posted on 11/18/13 at 5:18 pm
Posted on 11/18/13 at 5:18 pm
Sugar Bowl is looking increasingly out of reach absent an SECCG win. UCF - as a potential opponent - isn't helping our case, either.
Auburn w/ 2 losses to Bama and LSU has a much stronger case than we can make, unfortunately. I don't see how the Sugar chooses us over them.
Auburn w/ 2 losses to Bama and LSU has a much stronger case than we can make, unfortunately. I don't see how the Sugar chooses us over them.
3
Posted on 11/18/13 at 5:35 pm to WheelRoute
Juts win the SECCG. 
Posted on 11/18/13 at 5:46 pm to WheelRoute
I never thought we could get an at-large bid in the first place
Posted on 11/18/13 at 5:46 pm to WheelRoute
The Sugar has always been a long shot as an at-large, especially since Okie St jumped us in the polls.
I still like our chances against Bama if we win-out and make it there ... we'll see.
I still like our chances against Bama if we win-out and make it there ... we'll see.
Posted on 11/18/13 at 5:57 pm to scrooster
Okie St. hosts #4 Baylor and then Oklahoma. They may not be above us by the end of the season, We just need to win out...if Mizzou loses a game like we're all hoping, and we take care of business against Clemson, that'll be several teams ranked above us that will fall....
Posted on 11/18/13 at 6:42 pm to ConwayGamecock
There are too many variables for us to realistically get an At Large Sugar Bid. It would have to be something like...
Okie St loses 1 of the next 2, if not both.
We win out.
Bama beats Aub.
Mizz beats aTm, but loses to Ole Miss.
The kicker in this could be the UCF rematch, we may actually need to pull for them to lose 1 and fall out of the Top 18. (That would eliminate them from BCS contention.)
If that happens, we'll jump up to #7, Aub is at 8 or 9.
Our more realistic, but more difficult situation for our team, would be to win out, and beat Bama in the SECCG. Then it wouldn't matter and we would get an automatic Sugar Bowl Bid as the SECCG winner.
Okie St loses 1 of the next 2, if not both.
We win out.
Bama beats Aub.
Mizz beats aTm, but loses to Ole Miss.
The kicker in this could be the UCF rematch, we may actually need to pull for them to lose 1 and fall out of the Top 18. (That would eliminate them from BCS contention.)
If that happens, we'll jump up to #7, Aub is at 8 or 9.
Our more realistic, but more difficult situation for our team, would be to win out, and beat Bama in the SECCG. Then it wouldn't matter and we would get an automatic Sugar Bowl Bid as the SECCG winner.
Posted on 11/18/13 at 7:03 pm to CockInYourEar
quote:AAC gets automatic but it will be Louisville in the game not UCF if UCF loses
The kicker in this could be the UCF rematch, we may actually need to pull for them to lose 1 and fall out of the Top 18.
Posted on 11/18/13 at 7:16 pm to AtlantaSportsGuy
quote:
AAC gets automatic but it will be Louisville in the game not UCF if UCF loses
In order for a Non AQ confernce to get a BCS bid, they have to be in the Top 18. I don't know if L'ville will end up in the Top 18
quote:
If fewer than 10 teams are eligible for selection, then an at-large team will be any Football Bowl Subdivision team that is bowl-eligible, has won at least nine regular-season games, and is among the top 18 teams in the final BCS Standings, though any at-large team ranked in the top 14 will be guaranteed a bid over at-large teams ranked lower than 14th. If fewer than 10 teams are eligible after expanding the at-large pool to the top 18 BCS-ranked teams, then the at-large pool will continue to be expanded by four additional positions in the BCS Standings until 10 or more teams are eligible. No team ranked lower than 14 has used this rule to earn an at-large bid, although several teams ranked lower than 14 have received a bid for winning their conference, as the rule was not in place in the early years of the BCS.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bowl_Championship_Series
This post was edited on 11/18/13 at 7:18 pm
Posted on 11/18/13 at 8:03 pm to ConwayGamecock
That's true ... but IMHO Okie St beats Baylor but Baylor doesn't fall below us.
The other way I see it is that A&M beats Mizzou ... and the pollsters have already shown us a ton of disrespect dropping us in the polls three times this season after wins. They'll vote A&M over us even when we beat Clemson.
We're just no good at racking-up style points.
But I agree, we've got a shot at a BCS bowl, one way or the other, if we just keep winning.
The other way I see it is that A&M beats Mizzou ... and the pollsters have already shown us a ton of disrespect dropping us in the polls three times this season after wins. They'll vote A&M over us even when we beat Clemson.
We're just no good at racking-up style points.
But I agree, we've got a shot at a BCS bowl, one way or the other, if we just keep winning.
Posted on 11/18/13 at 8:13 pm to CockInYourEar
AAC has the Big Easts old AQ this year though.
So no matter who wins the AAC their going to a BCS bowl, now matter where they're ranked like UCONN did a few years ago
So no matter who wins the AAC their going to a BCS bowl, now matter where they're ranked like UCONN did a few years ago
Posted on 11/19/13 at 8:53 am to Cockopotamus
Assuming Auburn loses to Alabama, their best win is against aTm, yes?
Hypothetically, USC would have wins over UCF, Mizzou, and Clemson; all teams in the BCS top-18. I know Auburn has cache just because they're Auburn, but objectively, our resume is just as good, and likely better. If Mizzou wins out, and thereby beats aTm, that means that Auburn's best victory is a three(or four, depending on LSU)-loss aTm. That's not terribly impressive.
Auburn's got the name, though. The monkey wrench in all of this, as earlier stated, is the likelihood that UCF goes to the Sugar Bowl from the AAC. Sugar Bowl won't schedule a rematch.
Hypothetically, USC would have wins over UCF, Mizzou, and Clemson; all teams in the BCS top-18. I know Auburn has cache just because they're Auburn, but objectively, our resume is just as good, and likely better. If Mizzou wins out, and thereby beats aTm, that means that Auburn's best victory is a three(or four, depending on LSU)-loss aTm. That's not terribly impressive.
Auburn's got the name, though. The monkey wrench in all of this, as earlier stated, is the likelihood that UCF goes to the Sugar Bowl from the AAC. Sugar Bowl won't schedule a rematch.
Posted on 11/19/13 at 9:29 am to RoyalAir
quote:
Assuming Auburn loses to Alabama, their best win is against aTm, yes?
Hypothetically, USC would have wins over UCF, Mizzou, and Clemson; all teams in the BCS top-18. I know Auburn has cache just because they're Auburn, but objectively, our resume is just as good, and likely better. If Mizzou wins out, and thereby beats aTm, that means that Auburn's best victory is a three(or four, depending on LSU)-loss aTm. That's not terribly impressive.
Auburn's got the name, though. The monkey wrench in all of this, as earlier stated, is the likelihood that UCF goes to the Sugar Bowl from the AAC. Sugar Bowl won't schedule a rematch.
Auburn is far from the only problem, as already stated in this thread.
A&M is the real problem because they've got JFF and he is a draw that will put arses in seats.
Again, the pollsters have already demonstrated that they do not respect us because they've dropped us in the polls three times this year after victories ... or maybe twice, I'll have to go back and look but I think it is three times.
Both Auburn and A&M are likely to be ranked ahead of us by the end of the regular season. (Even provided we beat Clemson and A&M beats Mizzou and with the understanding that Auburn probably loses to Bama.)
We're gonna have to beat Bama to get a BCS bowl IMHO.
Posted on 11/19/13 at 10:30 am to scrooster
quote:
A&M is the real problem because they've got JFF and he is a draw that will put arses in seats.
Understood about the pollsters and the allure of Manziel, but we're talking about an aTm team that could have three or four losses. If aTm beats Mizzou, we go to Atlanta and have to win our way into the Sugar; understood. But if Mizzou/LSU beats aTm, then we're likely not going to Atlanta, anyway, and it's essentially a selection between us, Auburn, and maybe Mizzou (losing to Bama in the SECCG).
Either aTm wins out, and we're going to Atlanta, anyway, or they finish with more losses than we do (assuming we beat Clemson). I just don't see how the Sugar Bowl can take a three-loss SEC squad when they'll have THREE two-loss teams to choose from (USC/AU/Mizzou).
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