re: Georgia @ Auburn Prediction Thread

Hey look, it's my first post.

I'm not going to make a prediction per se, but in this week where folklore takes over and UGA grows to be 10 feet tall and bulletproof in my local paper (the crappy AJC) I prefer to turn to stats.

One of the stats that's been thrown about is that UGA is 23rd in the nation against the run and 34th in total defense, Auburn is 59th or something and won't be able to stop Gurley. I’ve heard from one UGA fan that Auburn will try to run, go three and out and punt and UGA will march right down and score, rinse repeat and repeat and repeat. In his view UGA blows Auburn away based on UGA is great against the run and that’s all Auburn can do.

But I think those numbers are deceiving on UGAs rushing defense. According to the SEC Stats for this week and ESPN splits, UGA is 1-2 on the road and 2-2 if you include UF. In those games:

1. Clemson who averages 166 yards on the ground at home got 197 against CTG defense.
2. UT has the second worst total offense in the SEC and the 8th best rushing attack averaging 186 per game but against the CTG defense they got 189.
4. Vandy is dead last in the SEC in rushing offense. They average 140 yards rushing per game and UGA actually held them to 119. So 21 yards or 15% less than average but Vandy won.
5. UF is second to last in the SEC in rushing offense and they have an absolutely maligned offense who supposedly couldn’t put a drive together if nobody was on the field opposing them. They have averaged 146 yards rushing per game, against UGA they got 145 and lost 23-20. They even managed 174 in the air and scored 17 unanswered in the second half (UGA did not score at all in the second half fwiw).

Seems to me ON THE ROAD the UGA defense has allowed teams, even bad rushing teams, to maintain their average yards rushing. This kind of makes sense given CTG defense is typically not good against the run and worst against the pass.

Statistically UGA's defense is similar to Mississippi St (pass def, pass def %, rushing def near identical, total def near identical, scoring def, red zone def). Mississippi St held Auburn to 120 yards on the ground, but Auburn threw for 339.

Auburn averages 320 rushing or 378 in the last 6 games. If statistics held for how UGA performs on the road, Auburn should be able to run to their average. Then kick in Auburn in the SEC is #4 in scoring, #2 in total offense, #3 in TDs scored, #3 in total offense plays, #2 in yards, #4 in TDs, #1 in rushing offense, #1 rushing yards, #1 rushing TDs, #1 yards per rush, #7 pass efficiency, [passing stats are clouded when you’re last in attempts but are still 9-1], #4 pass yards per completion [crowd the box and Sammie Coates continues nearly leading the nation in yards per catch], #5 in 3rd down conversions and #2 in red zone offense. These stats are good.

In stats that matter, UGA is #10 in red zone defense, 11th in stopping 3rd down conversions, #12 in pass defense, #10 in pass defense efficiency #4 in rushing defense, #5 total defense, and tied at 9th with Vandy in scoring defense.

So what if it’s a shootout? What about Gurley and Murray have a field day to match Auburn if Auburn is able to maintain its averages. UGA is #6 in scoring offense vs Auburns #4 scoring defense, #4 total offense vs Auburns #10 total defense, #2 passing offense vs Auburns #11 passing defense, #10 in rushing vs Auburns #9 rushing defense, #10 in making 3rd down conversions against Auburns #5 3rd down defense , #3 in red zone offense against Auburns #2 red zone defense.

So a shootout is possible with a bend don’t break defense that likes to bend until the red zone or until a scoring opportunity. If Gurley isn’t himself and if Murray is (his yards thrown per game drop 43% on the road and TDs thrown drops 75% on the road), I’d say Auburn’s defense has got a better chance than Georgia in stopping a shootout than the other way around.

Not to mention, I take our D line against their O line. I've watched both play this year. Ours did the job against A&M, theirs can be very up and down. Murray does not like pressure Also Murray was not stellar last week, Gurley looks worse against App St then UF two weeks ago, Auburns defense is pretty good in INTs and Murray has been throwing more of those lately, Auburn is flat out better coached - ask Georgia fans.

You can’t predict turnovers or special teams play, but going over UGA’s special teams stats is not pretty against Auburns that are gorgeous. But that’s an X factor to me.

Like I said going into this week UGA here in Atlanta is all of a sudden is unbeatable, 10 feet tall and bulletproof. Except that’s not what they’ve been saying after most of their games this year except USC and LSU. Otherwise against North Texas, 2-8 FCS App St (first 2.5 quarters), UT, UF, Vandy, Mizzou, Clemson (crying on the radio) and so on, they've been very upset with their team for good reason: defense, 3rd down defense, Murray (or Box Score Murray as they call him), lack of preparation, etc.

I think pay back for losing 6 of 7, the last two by a score of 83-7, playing at home, going into a bye week, performing better at home then UGA does on the road, the “believe” aspect ESPN says Auburn has in itself right now, I like Auburn’s chances a lot and I'd be happy with a win and estatic with a blowout. As would anyone. But I have to live in the land of G flags, license plates and hearing every August that they're going to win the BCS NCG BOOK IT!!! I'd love to silence that for a long long time.

War Cam Eagle… or in the week of the UGA game, War Fairley Eagle.