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re: Ole Miss has the widest potential W-L variance.
Posted on 7/15/13 at 12:38 pm to DMagic
Posted on 7/15/13 at 12:38 pm to DMagic
quote:
You get his point obviously.
I've said it MANY times; there are 6 tossups that will define the 2013 season:
Vandy
Texas
Auburn
A&M
LSU
State
.500 or above is a good year
I agree.
What percentage of probability would you give to each of those games?
Taking off my Maroon-Colored Jizz-Stained glasses:
Vandy 75%
Texas 48%
Auburn 60%
A&M 60%
LSU 55%
State 52%
Forgot Bama - 45%
This post was edited on 7/15/13 at 12:40 pm
2
Posted on 7/15/13 at 12:45 pm to KaiserSoze99
quote:
Vandy 75%
Texas 48%
Auburn 60%
A&M 60%
LSU 55%
State 52%
I think Vandy is at about .6 (don't sleep on them), and the rest are at about .5.
I think these probabilities will change dependent on Ole Miss' early season performance. If the team gels and starts to believe in itself and the system, they could develop their own momentum that increases the chance of victory in any given game.
So a lot hinges on early performances at Vanderbilt and Texas.
Posted on 7/15/13 at 12:45 pm to KaiserSoze99
quote:
What percentage of probability would you give to each of those games?
Taking off my Maroon-Colored Jizz-Stained glasses:
Vandy 75%
Texas 48%
Auburn 60%
A&M 60%
LSU 55%
State 52%
Forgot Bama - 45%
No fricking way.
First, to clarify, if we're assigning % chance of winning, it's more like this...
Vandy 75%
Texas 40%
Auburn 55%
aTm 40%
LSU 55%
State 55%
Bama 15%
No possible way Auburn and aTm are the same win %.
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