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re: I'm curious how the Ark will react if we go 9-3 but the final loss is a blowout to LSU?
Posted on 10/18/17 at 3:07 pm to Texas Gentleman
Posted on 10/18/17 at 3:07 pm to Texas Gentleman
Yes, winning 9 and then 10 games would absolutely suck!
I'm not sure if some of you guys need to drink more or a lot less.
I'm not sure if some of you guys need to drink more or a lot less.
1
Posted on 10/18/17 at 3:15 pm to finestfirst79
Never said it would suck to win 9 or 10 games during a season. Just that it would suck in the overall scheme because you sunshine pumpers would use it as an excuse to keep sumlin around another 5 years while he regressed back to his mean of 8 wins a year after it.
This post was edited on 10/18/17 at 3:17 pm
Posted on 10/18/17 at 3:44 pm to Texas Gentleman
I'm not sold on Sumlin at all, but this is where your argument becomes silly:
"regressed back to his mean of 8 wins a year"
It ain't rocket surgery. There's no natural law that says he must regress to his previous mean (which is higher than 8, by the way). All we have to go with is how he's doing right now. I have no idea how the rest of the season will play out. A&M may go 5-0, or they may go 1-4. In both of those cases the choices are clear and not all that interesting as far as his employment goes. Where it gets interesting is if A&M goes 3-2. We'll have a lot of folks calling for his head and just as many telling you to STFU. I'm honestly not sure which group I'd be in.
"regressed back to his mean of 8 wins a year"
It ain't rocket surgery. There's no natural law that says he must regress to his previous mean (which is higher than 8, by the way). All we have to go with is how he's doing right now. I have no idea how the rest of the season will play out. A&M may go 5-0, or they may go 1-4. In both of those cases the choices are clear and not all that interesting as far as his employment goes. Where it gets interesting is if A&M goes 3-2. We'll have a lot of folks calling for his head and just as many telling you to STFU. I'm honestly not sure which group I'd be in.
Posted on 10/18/17 at 4:54 pm to finestfirst79
quote:
if A&M goes 3-2
That will mean losses to LSU and Auburn
I know exactly where I'll stand, time for a new coach
Posted on 10/18/17 at 5:05 pm to Old Sarge
sumlin might decide to leave on his own depending on how he finishes the season. i'm sure there will be plenty of rumors about him leaving either way.
he already scammed us once, like an nfl team was actually gonna hire him.
he'll try to milk it for all it's worth if he wins 10 games.
i just don't see sumlin here next year. i think the relationship is about over.
he already scammed us once, like an nfl team was actually gonna hire him.
he'll try to milk it for all it's worth if he wins 10 games.
i just don't see sumlin here next year. i think the relationship is about over.
This post was edited on 10/18/17 at 5:06 pm
Posted on 10/18/17 at 5:10 pm to BadAgg7
quote:
he already scammed us once, like an nfl team was actually gonna hire him.
I'd be very interested to read your proof that this originated with Sumlin or even his agent.
Posted on 10/18/17 at 5:22 pm to finestfirst79
quote:
There's no natural law that says he must regress to his previous mean (which is higher than 8, by the way).
It is? Let's examine this:
Houston: 8, 10, 5, 12. Mean = 8.75
A&M: 11, 9, 8, 8, 8. Mean = 8.8
Now let's remove bowl games from that equation.
Sumlin's regular season mean is:
Houston - 8.5 (7,5,10,12)
Texas A&M - 8.2 (10,8,7,8,8)
Looks like he's correct.
Posted on 10/18/17 at 5:48 pm to finestfirst79
oh dear.
Posted on 10/18/17 at 6:10 pm to BadAgg7
If he wins 9 or more he'll be back
If he does the same next year he'll be back again
If he does the same next year he'll be back again
Posted on 10/18/17 at 6:12 pm to Old Sarge
quote:
If he wins 9 or more he'll be back
To do that, he would have to break one of the following streaks:
-Auburn/A&M home team always loses
-Winless vs. LSU in SEC play
Posted on 10/18/17 at 6:14 pm to Old Sarge
quote:
That will mean losses to LSU and Auburn
I know exactly where I'll stand, time for a new coach
Context matters. I really, really want the Ags to beat LSU and won't be happy if that doesn't happen. But what if, for example, Mond breaks a leg against MSU, Starkel comes in and re-breaks his ankle, and Hubes becomes the starter with his bum shoulder?
None of this is pertinent to Texas Gentleman's post, though. He's concerned about winning 9 this year, 10 next year, then going back to 8 wins/year. We need to get lottery numbers from him!
Posted on 10/18/17 at 6:15 pm to finestfirst79
quote:
There's no natural law that says he must regress to his previous mean
Correct. But you realize what the point of statistics is right?
All we are doing is speculating on how he would perform if he stays here longer than this year. And all I’m doing is stating my opinion based on what I’ve seen after 5.5 years of him running our program.
Posted on 10/18/17 at 6:16 pm to finestfirst79
quote:
He's concerned about winning 9 this year, 10 next year, then going back to 8 wins/year.
No, what he's concerned about is Sumlin slacking off once/if/after he gets his new contract.
Posted on 10/18/17 at 6:19 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
UH doesn't count. Why should it? And if you're going to remove bowl games (which of course you are) then the standard should be lowered by a game, right?
Posted on 10/18/17 at 6:21 pm to finestfirst79
quote:
Context matters. I really, really want the Ags to beat LSU and won't be happy if that doesn't happen. But what if, for example, Mond breaks a leg against MSU, Starkel comes in and re-breaks his ankle, and Hubes becomes the starter with his bum shoulder?
Wise words from Old Army.
This post was edited on 10/18/17 at 6:22 pm
Posted on 10/18/17 at 6:23 pm to finestfirst79
quote:
And if you're going to remove bowl games (which of course you are) then the standard should be lowered by a game, right?
Not when the complaint is that Sumlin is no better than 8 regular season wins aside from the 2012 season (which is a true statement).
This post was edited on 10/18/17 at 6:24 pm
Posted on 10/18/17 at 6:23 pm to Texas Gentleman
quote:
But you realize what the point of statistics is right?
To fool you, apparently! My favorite statistic: the average American has one testicle. (Are you above or below average?)
Statistics are useful in a lot of cases, but I don't see how they can be applied to expected future football performance. Or future anything, for that matter.
This post was edited on 10/18/17 at 10:47 pm
Posted on 10/18/17 at 6:24 pm to finestfirst79
quote:
but I don't see how they can be applied to expected future football performance
When your regular season win totals are 10, 8, 7, 8, and 8, which is more likely? 9 wins or more or 8 wins?
More importantly, when your conference win totals are 6, 4, 3, 4, and 4, is it not indicative that you're probably going to get 4 wins in conference?
This post was edited on 10/18/17 at 6:26 pm
Posted on 10/18/17 at 6:27 pm to BadAgg7
quote:
oh dear.
IOW you've got nothing?
Posted on 10/18/17 at 6:34 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
quote:
When your regular season win totals are 10, 8, 7, 8, and 8, which is more likely? 9 wins or more or 8 wins?
I'm not fond of the mutual fund radio commercials, but their disclaimer at the end can be used in many situations, including this one: "Past performance is no guarantee of future results."
I have no idea how A&M will finish this year. Even less of an idea about next year. And neither do you. I do know I'm enjoying the hell out of watching a very scrappy team playing mostly good defense. That's all I need.
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