I'm curious how the Ark will react if we go 9-3 but the final loss is a blowout to LSU?

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That is good enough for me.

However, I would be salty as frick

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Pretty much my thoughts. Heart would say get him the frick out, but 9-3 after starting the way we did would be pretty solid.

if that happens then our best win would most likely be an 8 win Carolina team. same ol same ol.

9 wins isn't going to save his job.

i wonder if sumlin is already looking for another job. maybe he knows something and is coaching his arse off to land another gig. maybe he just wants to leave anyway, whether he could come back or not.

I mean I get what you're looking at, but at the end of the day the regents don't give a frick whether it's been done before.

I'm not trying to argue. I am not a Sumlin fan or hater. I wanted him gone after last year. He wasn't so now I will judge him this year along with what he's shown in his first 5 years. I've seen plenty of good and bad up to this point. It just doesn't seem logical to fire a 9 win coach after keeping an 8 win coach with bad collapses the last 2 years. I am not connected. I just have to go with what makes sense.

There's really no need for analytics, measure from within not comparatively. If we play someone with a pulse in the OCC, I expect our coach to win 8 games at a minimum before the bowl game. If we play four DII teams, I expect 9 wins at a minimum before the bowl game. I expect us to have better than 50% conference record in most years.

Occasional outliers of 7 wins are acceptable, but they cannot be based on systematic errors within the coach's program, but rather specific personnel issues or the conference outlook. On that same coin, outliers of 10-12 wins are expected when the personnel is at the peak of experience, an exceptional talent is present, or the conference outlook is favorable. A good coach is expected to have the foresight and intelligence to put his team in positions to have those circumstances present every 4 years at a minimum. It will not pan out every one of those years, and surely some will result in "average" wins, but there must be outliers on the wins side both ways (more, not just less).

With respect to the losses, the nature of the losses counts. It is acceptable to lose to a lesser team, but such losses should be few and far between or otherwise explainable. Blown leads must be explainable. Other factors, such as inability to beat a rival (LSU) may come into play, but those factors should not count for hardly anything in relation to the others. At the end of the day, no one will car if a 10-win team lost to LSU as opposed to someone else - the loss will still be a ceiling on the expectations for the season.


A coach that gets paid $5M should be able to accomplish this - they are reasonable expectations.

Take out "big-time" program out of the mix and just look at dollars and cents.

It's reasonable for anyone that pays a head ball coach $5M and coordinators $1M. We do. Whether that makes us big time or not is irrelevant. Sam Houston State could pay $5M for a coach and I would say the same thing. So since we're in the CFB arms race, we need to act like it. And I think we will.

Sumlin was not fired last year because it was not the right time. And if he doesn't win big this year, that will be the only thing that saves him. If we find our mark to replace him, he's gone unless he proves he's capable of doing what we pay him to do.

Blown out by Yaw Yaw AGAIN that is