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re: Expectations
Posted on 8/15/16 at 12:40 pm to Farmer1906
Posted on 8/15/16 at 12:40 pm to Farmer1906
Which would be fine if our running game is worth a damn and we find a way to finally stop the run.
1
Posted on 8/15/16 at 2:30 pm to cardboardboxer
Keep in mind that Mazzone's offense typically involves quite a few relatively easy short throws to RBs and screens to WRs. Those are uncontested and pretty easy to make, almost running plays. He is known for this kind of short passing game on the perimeter, trying to get it in the hands of playmakers in space.
So what is Mazzone's track record with QBs, anyway?
Rosen threw for about 60% last year for UCLA in 2015.
LINK
Hundley threw for 69% the year before.
LINK
It was was 67% in 2013.
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It was was 67% in 2012.
LINK
At Arizona State in 2011, 63%.
LINK
At Arizona State in 2010, a little over 60% between 2 QBs.
LINK
Interesting that Hundley was the more accurate QB, based on completion percentages approaching 70%. I never viewed him as exactly a pinpointed passer, just as a pretty good one.
I didn't do the math in those off the cuff examples to come up with an exact completion percentage. That's my fault. To rephrase it, I just think we need Knight to be efficient at QB, not setting records for TDs and yardage.
According to this, Knight threw for 59% in 2013 and 57% in 2014.
LINK
So Knight has been a little below where Mazzone's QBs have typically performed at UCLA and ASU in completion percentage. We'll see if that changes.
So what is Mazzone's track record with QBs, anyway?
Rosen threw for about 60% last year for UCLA in 2015.
LINK
Hundley threw for 69% the year before.
LINK
It was was 67% in 2013.
LINK
It was was 67% in 2012.
LINK
At Arizona State in 2011, 63%.
LINK
At Arizona State in 2010, a little over 60% between 2 QBs.
LINK
Interesting that Hundley was the more accurate QB, based on completion percentages approaching 70%. I never viewed him as exactly a pinpointed passer, just as a pretty good one.
I didn't do the math in those off the cuff examples to come up with an exact completion percentage. That's my fault. To rephrase it, I just think we need Knight to be efficient at QB, not setting records for TDs and yardage.
According to this, Knight threw for 59% in 2013 and 57% in 2014.
LINK
So Knight has been a little below where Mazzone's QBs have typically performed at UCLA and ASU in completion percentage. We'll see if that changes.
Posted on 8/15/16 at 2:42 pm to PikeBishop
We just need a mature, game-manager type QB.
We get that, and our running game opens up, and our defense is able to pin their ears back more often.
Like you said, we don't need a Heisman candidate under center tearing it up every week.
We get that, and our running game opens up, and our defense is able to pin their ears back more often.
Like you said, we don't need a Heisman candidate under center tearing it up every week.
Posted on 8/15/16 at 4:16 pm to Farmer1906
I expect the wife to hate being around me on Saturdays 
Posted on 8/15/16 at 4:19 pm to Captain Crown
One word
Harris
Harris
Posted on 8/15/16 at 4:20 pm to Captain Crown
nah you are one of the extremely few good ones
Posted on 8/15/16 at 4:40 pm to WestCoastAg
I appreciate that WCA. I pull for you guys all but one game a year 
Posted on 8/15/16 at 4:43 pm to Old Sarge
I expect 9 wins personally. We're going to the Tennessee game which should be a blast.
Posted on 8/15/16 at 4:55 pm to WestCoastAg
quote:
Because this isn't a "hit the floor" year. Whatever struggles we are facing this year are nothing compared to what we are facing say next year. This year we have:
-our most talented team in decades including a top 5 in draft DE
-a senior QB who has some experience and has beat Bama (showing his ceiling)
-we get Tenn, Ole Miss, and LSU at home (not that that means much under Sumlin)
My beef with saying 8 wins is ok is this is the EXACT kind of year we should be getting ten wins. Next year seven or eight is fine, but this year we need to hit a peak to prove to this fanbase Sumlin can do it without Johnny.
Yep. Except that I would say it isn't "prove to the fanbase" but "prove to recruits". It's a game of Larrys and Joes and we are getting beat down on that front because the kids we are selling ourselves to ALSO think that Sumlin only looked good because of Johnny.
This post was edited on 8/15/16 at 5:13 pm
Posted on 8/15/16 at 5:12 pm to TbirdSpur2010
quote:
We just need a mature, game-manager type QB. We get that, and our running game opens up, and our defense is able to pin their ears back more often.
Yup. Agree.
We are going to be using a short-strike, quick-tempo offense with built-in safety-valve throws.
We aren't going to be asking our QB to memorize a massive playbook with complex route-trees and make tough or long throws.
We are asking for primarily: consistency, good decision-making on the fly within the confines of a system that should dictate those decisions and be easy to grasp conceptually, and leadership.
I think Knight can do that, and we'll be successful as a result. We are asking him to do pretty much what Leach asked of his guys (who didn't start until they were seniors... because being mature and knowing the system are more important to him than talent): manage the freaking game, be a leader, and make the correct decisions as dictated by the system.
Were B.J. Symons, Sonnie Cumbie, or Kliff Kingsbury very talented? Not really! Primarily they were like plant operators - turning the right valve and flipping the correct switch here and there to properly run the machinery while the WRs and RBs did all the work and damage.
As an aside from the main point here, the great sad irony of Sumlin's tenure is that we went AWAY from that offense just as he GOT super-talent at the QB position. Everyone thought we were going to, for the first time, see a Leach-type offense paired with a 5* talent. The hype was "now we see the super scheme paired with the super talent as never before!" Instead, Spavital installed more and more West-coast type schematic elements, complicated the philosophy, asked for NFL-like throws at times, and slowed everything down.
This post was edited on 8/15/16 at 5:19 pm
Posted on 8/15/16 at 5:54 pm to Cooter Davenport
quote:
As an aside from the main point here, the great sad irony of Sumlin's tenure is that we went AWAY from that offense just as he GOT super-talent at the QB position. Everyone thought we were going to, for the first time, see a Leach-type offense paired with a 5* talent. The hype was "now we see the super scheme paired with the super talent as never before!" Instead, Spavital installed more and more West-coast type schematic elements, complicated the philosophy, asked for NFL-like throws at times, and slowed everything down.
We aggyed it up
Posted on 8/15/16 at 6:07 pm to Cooter Davenport
quote:
I think Knight can do that, and we'll be successful as a result. We are asking him to do pretty much what Leach asked of his guys (who didn't start until they were seniors... because being mature and knowing the system are more important to him than talent): manage the freaking game, be a leader, and make the correct decisions as dictated by the system.
Were B.J. Symons, Sonnie Cumbie, or Kliff Kingsbury very talented? Not really! Primarily they were like plant operators - turning the right valve and flipping the correct switch here and there to properly run the machinery while the WRs and RBs did all the work and damage.
The big difference is that by the time all those tech QBs were seniors, they had been in the system for multiple years and knew exactly how to run it. There's still quite a but of uncertainty about how well Knight will be able to execute Mazzone's game plan. Or just how good the game plan is to begin with.
Posted on 8/15/16 at 6:17 pm to NanosTacoRun
I expect the two games I already have booked to be Aggie wins. UCLA and Auburn games.
Posted on 8/15/16 at 7:15 pm to Cooter Davenport
quote:
Except that I would say it isn't "prove to the fanbase" but "prove to recruits".
Eh, that is a different metric especially to Aggies. Programs make changes because fans get pissed off and quit filling the stadium. Fans are who matter.
Now without recruits you don't get wins, and without wins you piss off the fans. But not enough Aggies are plugged into recruiting to know Sumlin is getting his clock cleaned in recuiting this cycle. Fans are the lagging indicator but the important one.
Some people pay tens of thousands for tickets to go each year with a blank slate, and they judge based on what they see on the field. I can't TELL you how much more I know about our program just reading this forum daily than people in my family and their friends who spend way more in getting tickets than I get paid annually. We are a very hands off fan base compared to a lot (ahem Texas), but it is our opinion (or more exactly theirs if you are a me) that matters at this late in the game.
One example I think about: we melted when Sumlin couldn't or didn't fire Snyder after the Duke game JFF won despite the D, while these BMAs melted when we couldn't stop the run next season and it lead to 59-0. If we were firing Sumlin for what recruits think he would have been fired by now. What matters now is what Joe Grayhair thinks, and I think Joe needs to see at least 8 wins to keep cutting checks with how low oil is. Maybe 9.
Our biggest problem is we aren't used to big boy football yet, so we might go through a whole season of low attendance before pulling the trigger rather than cutting bait when a SEC hardened team would (aka before the suite renewals are sent out). We will get there eventually.
I think the point is not relevant though as we will get ten wins.
This post was edited on 8/15/16 at 7:21 pm
Posted on 8/15/16 at 7:18 pm to PikeBishop
quote:
According to this, Knight threw for 59% in 2013 and 57% in 2014.
My 19-32 is 59.4%. Make it 20-32 and we're at 62.5%. I think right around 60 is about right. With Mazzone's O and the talent we have at WR that should be about right.
Now we just need him to improve on his TD to INT ratio. A 2-1 or slightly better is what we should expect. Something like 28-12 is what I envision.
Posted on 8/15/16 at 7:22 pm to Farmer1906
I expect knight to thrive in our system. I am more looking forward to this season than any since I have been associated with A&M.
Posted on 8/15/16 at 8:16 pm to cardboardboxer
quote:
I am more looking forward to this season than any since I have been associated with A&M.
I'm going to stand over there next to cardboard
Posted on 8/15/16 at 9:10 pm to TbirdSpur2010
Posted on 8/15/16 at 9:42 pm to cardboardboxer
2013??? Johnny's returning encore year???
Posted on 8/15/16 at 9:49 pm to TbirdSpur2010
quote:
I'm going to stand over there next to cardboard
Me too, 'cept I really mean it. With crappy QB play across the SEC and/or suspect D's, I expect 12-0. Realistic me says 11-1 because it's just so hard to go undefeated.
I may be WAY off on the win total but I do absolutely expect a competitive team that won't get blown out by anybody. I think this year will be fun.
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