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re: Was the Auburn Kick6 truly a "miracle" play?

Posted on 8/14/14 at 4:58 pm to
Posted by ChexMix
Taste the Deliciousness
Member since Apr 2014
24796 posts
Posted on 8/14/14 at 4:58 pm to
quote:

He doesn't have those hops
Not many people do
Posted by Tigerman97
Member since Jun 2014
10354 posts
Posted on 8/14/14 at 4:58 pm to
quote:

Still trying to fight math and historical data I see. Your statement is absurd.



Many inferior minded people set up perfectly sound equations based on faulty premises. It is a limitation of small minds not to see the big picture.
Posted by ironsides
Nashville, TN
Member since May 2006
8153 posts
Posted on 8/14/14 at 5:03 pm to
quote:

It is a limitation of small minds not to see the big picture.
The irony.

If I am understanding your statement correctly, you think if they re-did that play 100 times, it would turn out with a return for a TD how many times?
Posted by parkjas2001
Gustav Fan Club: Consigliere
Member since Feb 2010
45000 posts
Posted on 8/14/14 at 5:08 pm to
quote:

Fine it's not a miracle.


We know.
Posted by Tigerman97
Member since Jun 2014
10354 posts
Posted on 8/14/14 at 5:15 pm to
quote:

If I am understanding your statement correctly, you think if they re-did that play 100 times, it would turn out with a return for a TD how many times?



No follow along I said, "The data says, 100% of the time."

Good logistics removes the emotion of opinion and only limits its understanding to data.
Posted by SaintBama
on da bayou
Member since Aug 2014
12 posts
Posted on 8/14/14 at 5:16 pm to
BLIND "FRICKING" LUCK

It will be another 50 years before API wins another championship,but you know that.
Posted by Crimson Legend
Mount St Gumpus
Member since Nov 2004
15478 posts
Posted on 8/14/14 at 5:47 pm to
quote:

No follow along I said, "The data says, 100% of the time."

Good logistics removes the emotion of opinion and only limits its understanding to data.


Which data? The one situation where we know the exact players, distance, etc.? Of course the one time it happened to those two teams in that situation is 100%.

The problem is trying to determine relevant data beyond that one case. We can't just count the games and say it happened "one time out of x games". You have to try to determine how many similar situations have occurred. I have no idea how many times a team attempted a very long FG with a return man in place. I would guess it is rather rare.

The two things we can all agree are :
1. This is a rare event, and
2. The auburn coaches had the foresight to take advantage of an opportunity of a score in a way that almost nobody expected.

Whether we call it a "miracle" or not is really semantics.
Posted by bamasgot13
Birmingham
Member since Feb 2010
13619 posts
Posted on 8/14/14 at 5:49 pm to
quote:

Who on the field makes the tackle for Alabama? Block Hubbard and it is a touchdown literally every time. Watch the wide view. When Davis cuts to the Auburn sideline around the 10 yard line the tubs of goo on the field necessary to protect for the kick take 4 full steps to shift their bodies and begin pursuit angles. Davis was going to score from the 10 yard line if not for the hustle of one guy it would have been untouched.


This assumes that if you replay that play 1000 times that the kicker misses - to the same spot on the field, no less - in each of those 1000 replays. He likely makes some (true miracle, haha), misses some in other directions, dropped snap by holder, blocked, etc. AU doesn't score 1,000 out of 1,000 times. They likely score 10 out of 1,000 times if the scenario of last second 57 yd fg is identical.
This post was edited on 8/14/14 at 5:55 pm
Posted by flyAU
Scottsdale
Member since Dec 2010
24848 posts
Posted on 8/14/14 at 6:02 pm to
This thread isn't about football anymore is it?
Posted by KiffinsVisor
Tennessee
Member since Jun 2014
1129 posts
Posted on 8/14/14 at 6:19 pm to
In auburns national championship "destiny" run, it took that to beat Alabama: that said, they were the better team and won. When they are better, it's by that much, see the cam back... When we are better it's by 40. Lil bro has to win sometimes. Can't wait for the season!
Posted by ironsides
Nashville, TN
Member since May 2006
8153 posts
Posted on 12/5/14 at 12:43 pm to
So after all this....despite having a return man deep in almost every long FG situation......how many FGs were returned for touchdowns this season?

Asking for a friend - rumor is according to this thread that it's pretty easy to do with good coaching.
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