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re: Fort Worth Star-Telegram: Is Texas A&M's football program in shambles?

Posted on 5/12/16 at 2:21 pm to
Posted by texag7
College Station
Member since Apr 2014
37520 posts
Posted on 5/12/16 at 2:21 pm to
Looks like Excel
Posted by Ag Zwin
Member since Mar 2016
19943 posts
Posted on 5/12/16 at 2:21 pm to
All programs have off years in recruiting. Just look at Bama in 2015.
Posted by RB10
Member since Nov 2010
43812 posts
Posted on 5/12/16 at 2:21 pm to
quote:

Looks like Excel


I edited. I meant the recruiting service. I should have asked what service he used for the data points. Would have been more clear.
This post was edited on 5/12/16 at 2:23 pm
Posted by CGSC Lobotomy
Member since Sep 2011
80110 posts
Posted on 5/12/16 at 2:22 pm to
quote:

So a guy that was fired is the reason? It seems like if sumlin was smart he could of at least kept one of them


Let's view it in the proper context.

-Kevin Sumlin was put in a situation where if they didn't sign Kyler Murray, they didn't get Daylon Mack

-Jake Spavital played favorites between Allen and Hill as well as between Allen and Murray.

-Spavital refused to pull him during the Alabama game until he was ordered to, then pulled Murray after the first INT.

-Spavital refused to pull Allen at all during the abyssmal performance against Ole Miss

-Spavital is the shittiest offensive coordinator A&M has ever had since Dino Babers' "Gulf Coast Offense" in 2001.

-Allen left because he got wind that Spavital would be fired.

-Murray left because he's a piece of shite.
Posted by CajunTiger_225
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2015
9201 posts
Posted on 5/12/16 at 2:23 pm to
They would probably be a lot more critical of Strong if he posted an 11 wins season in his first or second year and then struggled to win 8 games every season following.
Posted by Piscinin
the hills
Member since Nov 2015
3561 posts
Posted on 5/12/16 at 2:23 pm to
Probably not the best way to determine that, is it? JFF and Evans were both 3 star recruits for example, and you've had several 5* QBs transfer out.
Posted by Roger Klarvin
DFW
Member since Nov 2012
46507 posts
Posted on 5/12/16 at 2:24 pm to
Shambles? No, we've actually got a very talented team overall with about 5-6 guys who should go in the first three rounds of next year's draft. Probably our most talented starting 22 in Sumlin's tenure. We have OL and QB issues that could be our undoing however.

Now that doesn't mean we're in a good place, we lack depth at nearly every position, our 2017 squad could be a disaster and we have glaring PR and recruiting issues.

That being said, we're still in a better place than we've been much of the last 20 years.
Posted by cardboardboxer
Member since Apr 2012
34330 posts
Posted on 5/12/16 at 2:25 pm to
quote:

What service did you use to chart that?



Rivals, because they go back the farthest. I wanted the numbers to be Apple to Apples, even if in modern times Rivals isn't as respected as composite. The trend on any service is about the same when I compared.
Posted by RB10
Member since Nov 2010
43812 posts
Posted on 5/12/16 at 2:26 pm to
quote:

Rivals, because they go back the farthest


Got ya. Rivals sucks though.
Posted by Dr RC
The Money Pit
Member since Aug 2011
58061 posts
Posted on 5/12/16 at 2:26 pm to
quote:

-Spavital refused to pull him during the Alabama game until he was ordered to, then pulled Murray after the first INT.


Murray got pulled for that b/c pretty much everyone on the sidelines thought he did it on purpose.
This post was edited on 5/12/16 at 3:02 pm
Posted by CGSC Lobotomy
Member since Sep 2011
80110 posts
Posted on 5/12/16 at 2:26 pm to
quote:

They would probably be a lot more critical of Strong if he posted an 11 wins season in his first or second year and then struggled to win 8 games every season following.


Except for the fact that Strong has basically put up identical numbers to Dennis Franchione through his first two years.
Posted by SDVTiger
Cabo San Lucas
Member since Nov 2011
73571 posts
Posted on 5/12/16 at 2:31 pm to
Gonna be a long season for Aggie
Posted by cardboardboxer
Member since Apr 2012
34330 posts
Posted on 5/12/16 at 2:33 pm to
quote:

Probably not the best way to determine that, is it?


Why wouldn't it be? Recruiting rankings is the only metric for talent that we have that is backwards looking.

And quite frankly transfers kinda even out over time anyway. Sure we lost two 5 star QBs, but this season we start a 5 star RB transfer (Keith Ford) and a four star QB transfer (Trevor Knight). Oh and we just had a five star transfer get drafted (Brandon Williams). Despite the perception of our situation we probably have gotten more out of transfers than what we have lost during Sumlin's tenure. Two five star guys in a month leaving gets everyone's attention, but it leads to a biased perspective.

What else do you evaluate on? Number of draft picks on the team? I won't know the total for five years so it doesn't help today. The only reasonable set of data points to use today are draft classes.
Posted by cardboardboxer
Member since Apr 2012
34330 posts
Posted on 5/12/16 at 2:36 pm to
quote:

Got ya. Rivals sucks though.



True, but composite didn't really start until 2010. That isn't enough data.
Posted by shotcaller1
Member since Oct 2014
7501 posts
Posted on 5/12/16 at 2:36 pm to
LSU can't get aggy out of its mind
Posted by oman
Dallas
Member since Sep 2014
3280 posts
Posted on 5/12/16 at 2:38 pm to
So doesn't that graph stand for the proposition that

1) since your talent is improved

2) your record has not improved

3) Something is wrong with the program (coaching, morale, etc.)

Shambles is too strong a word, but the idea that your talent is better strongly supports the fact that something is wrong -- or has been wrong for at least the last year or two.
Posted by Aggie Dynasty
USA
Member since Jul 2013
2102 posts
Posted on 5/12/16 at 2:38 pm to
ALL









DADDY









TEXAS A&M









ALL









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TIME
Posted by cardboardboxer
Member since Apr 2012
34330 posts
Posted on 5/12/16 at 2:40 pm to
quote:

So doesn't that graph stand for the proposition that

1) since your talent is improved

2) your record has not improved

3) Something is wrong with the program (coaching, morale, etc.)



Not necessarily. That simple little logic statement doesn't take into account variables other than talent that make a difference on final records such as scheduling or injuries.

The only thing it tells us is a rough estimate of how talented the roster is year-to-year.

Oh and FYI the same logic statement would show Texas to be in "shambles" as on average they have out-recruited every other Big 12 program every year yet they aren't even a bowl-level team last year.
This post was edited on 5/12/16 at 2:44 pm
Posted by CajunTiger_225
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2015
9201 posts
Posted on 5/12/16 at 2:41 pm to
Quality and original post.
Posted by oman
Dallas
Member since Sep 2014
3280 posts
Posted on 5/12/16 at 2:45 pm to
quote:


The only thing it tells us is a rough estimate of how talented the roster is year-to-year


Okay, given that the talent has improved in the last three years (per your graph), why should we assume that talent will all of a sudden matter when it hasn't made a difference the last three years?

Do we just have too few games to have a fair sample?
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