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re: Dispelling the myth of "3rd and Chavis"

Posted on 7/29/15 at 12:07 pm to
Posted by Old Sarge
Dean of Admissions, LSU
Member since Jan 2012
55229 posts
Posted on 7/29/15 at 12:07 pm to
Thus one game minute is about 4 mins 13 seconds in real time on average. Which means that a 4 minute difference in TOP equates to nearly 17 minutes in real time.





Oh wow! An additional 17 minutes spread out over 4 hours.


That must surely compensate for LSU's offense not being able to score any points when it matters the most.
Posted by Guava Jelly
Bawston
Member since Jul 2009
11651 posts
Posted on 7/29/15 at 12:13 pm to
Work on your reading comprehension, sweetheart. I'm not talking about scoring offensive points. I'm talking about the notion that the defense is somehow less rested when the offense is not effective.

The numbers bear out that LSU's TOP is consistently among the highest in the league regardless of offensive numbers. And Sumlin's teams consistently have lower TOPs.

So if the excuse for Chavis's inability to put together a good scheme on third downs late in big games is that his defenses are so exhausted, it is doubtful that he'll benefit from a system in which defensive players are on the field more.
Posted by L S Usetheforce
Member since Jun 2004
22752 posts
Posted on 7/29/15 at 12:18 pm to
quote:

So if the excuse for Chavis's inability to put together a good scheme on third downs late in big games is that his defenses are so exhausted, it is doubtful that he'll benefit from a system in which defensive players are on the field more.


Posted by lsufball19
Franklin, TN
Member since Sep 2008
64511 posts
Posted on 7/29/15 at 12:24 pm to
quote:

That must surely compensate for LSU's offense not being able to score any points when it matters the most.

really? Let's take a look at just last year

Wisconsin: LSU offense comes back from being down 24-7 to win 28-24

Florida: LSU takes lead with 2:40 left after a 4 and 30 coversion by Jennings and then a Dural one handed TD reception. Chavis of course blows the lead immediately and should have cost LSu the game, but Florida dropped a wide open pass and had to settle for a FG. He then gets bailed out when a Florida receiver bobbles a pass and Ricky Jefferson picks it off. (Florida was driving (again) inside LSu territory, almost in field goal range). LSU then makes a 50 yard field goal as time expired.

Ole Miss: LSU offense has a 13 play 97 yard drive to take the lead with 5 minutes to go

Texas A&M: LSU is only up 3, deep in their own territory with 6 minutes left. LSU offense drives it down to the A&M 26, takes 4 minutes off the clock, and forces A&M into a situation where they have to score a TD to win
This post was edited on 7/29/15 at 12:30 pm
Posted by Old Sarge
Dean of Admissions, LSU
Member since Jan 2012
55229 posts
Posted on 7/29/15 at 12:30 pm to
That seems logical to me.

But from my perspective I'd prefer to have a 2 score lead with 2 minutes to go than have a slightly more rested defense and only be up by 3 points.
This post was edited on 7/29/15 at 12:31 pm
Posted by TeLeFaWx
Dallas, TX
Member since Aug 2011
29178 posts
Posted on 7/29/15 at 12:32 pm to
quote:

Wisconsin: LSU offense comes back from being down 24-7 to win 28-24


Shut out a team in the second half.

quote:

Ole Miss: LSU offense has a 13 play 97 yard drive to take the lead with 5 minutes to go



Right. The Ole Miss game was because of the offense. How delusional are y'all? Seriously. It is sad.
Posted by goldenbadger08
Sorting Out MSB BS Since 2011
Member since Oct 2011
37900 posts
Posted on 7/29/15 at 12:33 pm to
quote:

So if the excuse for Chavis's inability to put together a good scheme on third downs late in big games is that his defenses are so exhausted, it is doubtful that he'll benefit from a system in which defensive players are on the field more.
BOOOM!!

Posted by lsufball19
Franklin, TN
Member since Sep 2008
64511 posts
Posted on 7/29/15 at 12:34 pm to
quote:

Shut out a team in the second half.

quote:
Ole Miss: LSU offense has a 13 play 97 yard drive to take the lead with 5 minutes to go


Right. The Ole Miss game was because of the offense. How delusional are y'all? Seriously. It is sad.



that was a response to the LSU offense didn't perform when it mattered most. When it mattered most, they actually did come to play most of the time. They did what they needed to do, when they needed to do it, to win games
Posted by Guava Jelly
Bawston
Member since Jul 2009
11651 posts
Posted on 7/29/15 at 12:38 pm to
That's fine. But the knock against Chavis is not about defensive performance in blowouts. It's about defensive performance in close games.

A lot of Ags are hung up on the idea that Chavis will replicate his results in Sumlin's system. But because of the nature of the up tempo offense, it will be difficult if not impossible to have identical numbers in that system.

You can assume offensive production will stay somewhat constant, but defensively you cannot.
Posted by Old Sarge
Dean of Admissions, LSU
Member since Jan 2012
55229 posts
Posted on 7/29/15 at 12:40 pm to
That's where we differ


You see a 7-10 point lead as a blowout

I see that as an offense doing it's job.
Posted by KaiserSoze99
Member since Aug 2011
31669 posts
Posted on 7/29/15 at 12:50 pm to
So, your argument is that fast-scoring offenses are the same as 3-and-out offenses? Is that what you are arguing?

We can end this discussion pretty quickly if that is your position.

This post was edited on 7/29/15 at 12:52 pm
Posted by MightyYat
New Orleans
Member since Jan 2009
24374 posts
Posted on 7/29/15 at 12:50 pm to
quote:

You see a 7-10 point lead as a blowout

I see that as an offense doing it's job.


I don't understand what half of y'all are even arguing anymore. If that's the offense doing it's job then you should surely expect the defense to do it's job and keep that lead with under 3 minutes to play.
Posted by Guava Jelly
Bawston
Member since Jul 2009
11651 posts
Posted on 7/29/15 at 12:52 pm to
You said two score lead. So we're talking 10-14 points. Not a blowout, perhaps. But it's a comfortable lead in a game's closing minutes.

The biggest issue is we're operating with two extreme schools of thought. A lot of vocal Ag fans think he will be the savior of the defense and his presence will catapult the team into national prominence. While a lot of vocal LSU fans think the difference will be negligible.

It will likely be somewhere between the two. TAMU will win a few more close ones making an 8-5 team last year into a 9-4 or 10-3 team.

The key difference there being in the perception of success versus what the team actually wins.


Again, time will tell. And until it does can we please lay this shite to rest?
Posted by texag7
College Station
Member since Apr 2014
37510 posts
Posted on 7/29/15 at 12:52 pm to
Just be happy you were able to sign Steele.

Your problems are solved
Posted by Guava Jelly
Bawston
Member since Jul 2009
11651 posts
Posted on 7/29/15 at 12:54 pm to
quote:

So, your argument is that fast-scoring offenses are the same as 3-and-out offenses? Is that what you are arguing?


If that's what you gleaned from everything I said above, you are not capable of a civil discussion this or any other topic
Posted by lsufball19
Franklin, TN
Member since Sep 2008
64511 posts
Posted on 7/29/15 at 12:55 pm to
quote:

Your problems are solved

LSU wasn't the team with defensive problems, sweetheart

We'll be ok
This post was edited on 7/29/15 at 12:56 pm
Posted by Old Sarge
Dean of Admissions, LSU
Member since Jan 2012
55229 posts
Posted on 7/29/15 at 12:58 pm to
quote:

LSU wasn't the team with defensive problems, sweatheart



I sure wish some of y'all would make up your minds
Posted by Thurber
NWLA
Member since Aug 2013
15402 posts
Posted on 7/29/15 at 12:58 pm to
have fun
Posted by texag7
College Station
Member since Apr 2014
37510 posts
Posted on 7/29/15 at 12:58 pm to
But but but I thought 3rd and Chavis cost you games?
Posted by KaiserSoze99
Member since Aug 2011
31669 posts
Posted on 7/29/15 at 12:58 pm to
You said that if we think the reason Chavis could not finish was a tired D, we are going to have the same problem.

Is that not what you typed? Are you knocking my reading comprehension?
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