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re: Bama's Road Schedule
Posted on 6/13/16 at 7:39 pm to BHMKyle
Posted on 6/13/16 at 7:39 pm to BHMKyle
Just glad someone else is pointing out what Auburn people have known for a hundred years. The turds are masters at stacking the deck in so many ways. It is what it is. I'm just glad someone else is calling bullshite on their power play. It amazes me that the other AD's don't absolutely demand that the SEC office move locations.
This post was edited on 6/13/16 at 7:42 pm
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Posted on 6/13/16 at 10:10 pm to StopRobot
Road games- one of the most overrated disadvantages in football. The field is 100 yds by 52 everywhere. Crowd noise does not affect the flight of the ball or a rb' s speed. If anything it focuses you more because you are expecting a loud stadium. As far as staying at home the night before a game, nobody does that anymore anyway. I believe on Friday night's before home games Bama goes to ms and stays. Show me one place on Bamas road schedule where they have traditionally struggled. Maybe auburn I guess.
Posted on 6/13/16 at 10:29 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
#32 Auburn
Posted on 6/13/16 at 11:11 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
They play #5 LSU in Baton Rouge
They play #7 Tennessee in Knoxville
They play #11 Ole Miss in Oxford
They play #15 USC in Dallas
They play #27 Texas A&M in Tuscaloosa
They play #30 Arkansas in Fayetteville
They play #32 Auburn in Tuscaloosa
Hypothetically, if Saban loses 3 or 4 of these games, do you think he hands Bill Battle his whistle and moves to Lake Burton permanently?
Posted on 6/13/16 at 11:11 pm to JuiceTerry
quote:
So Tennessee is 0-19 since 2007?
Posted on 6/13/16 at 11:16 pm to TailbackU
More like Auburn and Tennessee have sucked dick every other year. Well every year for Tennessee.
Posted on 6/13/16 at 11:19 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
Florida- 16 total; 0 against Alabama
I don't feel like checking your work, but it usually has several errors. This was one I know is wrong. 2010 UF at Alabama. UF got beat up.
Posted on 6/13/16 at 11:29 pm to BHMKyle
Yeah, last year who was a tough road schedule?
WI (neutral) 35-17
GA 38-10
A&M 41-23
MSU 31-6
Everyone is a tough game till they play a tough game with the Bama Death Star.
WI (neutral) 35-17
GA 38-10
A&M 41-23
MSU 31-6
Everyone is a tough game till they play a tough game with the Bama Death Star.
Posted on 6/14/16 at 12:31 am to BHMKyle
38-10 against a top 5 team on the road last year, playa
With a healthy Chubb.
With a healthy Chubb.
This post was edited on 6/14/16 at 12:33 am
Posted on 6/14/16 at 1:11 am to BaconButter
quote:
I cant wait for another Vols collapse. Its going to be hilarious.
You post this every thread yet we've either met or exceeded expectations every year CBJ has been here.
Posted on 6/14/16 at 1:27 am to Prof
quote:
You post this every thread yet we've either met or exceeded expectations every year CBJ has been here.
heh. that is just adorable.
Posted on 6/14/16 at 8:49 am to 14&Counting
quote:
Somehow Bama perseveres and wins titles 4-7 years despite playing generally the same schedule
No, its not "generally the same schedule" every year. It's actually quite different. Just look at every single season since Saban came to Tuscaloosa. Look at the teams Bama played and where those teams finished the season ranked. If you apply a point total to each team based on their final ranking (25 points for a #1 finish; 24 points for a #2 finsih... 1 point for a #25 finish), you'll see Bama's regular season schedules varied quite a bit:
Here are Bama's regular season schedules ranked in order of difficulty, along with Bama's outcome those seasons:
2007- 74 pts (Bama finished 7-6)
2010- 72 pts (Bama finished 10-3)
2011- 45 pts (Bama finished 12-1; National Title)
2013- 44 pts (Bama finished 12-2)
2012- 35 pts (Bama finished 13-1; SEC/National Titles)
2015- 35 pts (Bama finished 14-1; SEC/National Titles)
2009- 31 pts (Bama finished 14-0; SEC/National Titles)
2014- 28 pts (Bama finished 12-2; SEC Title)
2008- 25 pts (Bama finished 12-2)
Do you think its any coincidence that Bama played for the SEC Championship when it faced its 5 easiest SEC schedules, yet Bama failed to play for the SEC Championship in all 4 of its most difficult regular seasons?
It's impossible to deny that Bama benefited in years in which they played an easy regular season schedule.... and on the flip-side, when they faced very difficult competition, they've slipped up more often.
That's the entire point of this. If Tennessee, LSU, and Ole Miss are all truly Top 10 or Top 12 teams this season, history shows Bama will slip up at least once or twice. If the majority of those 3 teams fail to live up to their preseason hype, then that may not be the case. Either way, Bama has 3 very difficult road games on their schedule.
This post was edited on 6/14/16 at 9:42 am
Posted on 6/14/16 at 8:54 am to TailbackU
quote:
Just glad someone else is pointing out what Auburn people have known for a hundred years. The turds are masters at stacking the deck in so many ways. It is what it is. I'm just glad someone else is calling bull shite on their power play.
Not sure its as much of a "stacking the deck" as it is Bama has had luck on their side (from a scheduling standpoint, while Auburn has not).
As I pointed out earlier, somehow Auburn has faced 5 very good LSU teams in Baton Rouge since 2007, that all finished the season ranked fairly high. Meanwhile during the same era, somehow in the seasons in which Alabama must play in Tiger Stadium LSU offers up weaker teams... twice not finishing even in the Top 25.
That's just random luck.
Posted on 6/14/16 at 9:26 am to TouchdownTony
quote:
Road games- one of the most overrated disadvantages in football. The field is 100 yds by 52 everywhere. Crowd noise does not affect the flight of the ball or a rb' s speed. If anything it focuses you more because you are expecting a loud stadium.
That's a beautiful fiction.... unfortunately it does not jive with reality or facts.
If you go back to 2007 and look at the Top 25 programs according to the AP.... those programs are a combined 149-183 against ranked teams at home (44.9%) compared to being 91-232 against ranked teams on the road (28.2%).
In those games, these programs averaged losing to ranked teams at home by just 1.1 points per game... The average score was 27.7 - 26.6. But on the road, these same programs averaged losing to ranked teams by 7.3 points per game... The average score was 30.9 - 23.6
So according to actual statistics, home field advantage when playing a ranked team is worth close to a touchdown per game.
quote:
Show me one place on Bamas road schedule where they have traditionally struggled. Maybe auburn I guess.
It doesn't always filter down to an exact game or an exact venue.... but Bama is 5-5 under Saban against ranked teams on the road compared to being 10-6 against ranked teams in Bryant-Denny. So Bama finds itself fitting the overall trend as well.
Of these 25 programs, 23 have faired better at home against ranked teams compared to on the road. The only two programs with a better winning percentage in true road games compared to home games were Oregon and Virginia Tech.
Posted on 6/14/16 at 9:32 am to BHMKyle
quote:
Road Games played since 2007 against teams that finished in the AP Top 25:
24- Auburn
22- Arkansas
21- Vanderbilt
19- S. Carolina
19- Tennessee
16- Florida
16- Mississippi State
15- Ole Miss
13- LSU
13- Kentucky
11- Georgia
10- Alabama
How many of those games were against Bama?
Those teams get inflated numbers by having to play Bama . Plus, when. Bama beats them their ranking drops.
Bama has lost more than one regular season game one time 2010(3) in the past 8 season. I've read many post stating "this is the year Bama drops 3+ games" Bama fans get ridiculed when they don't believe it will happen.
My opinion is Bama has the talent to win every game. But going undefeated is really hard and I don't think Bama will this year. 1-2 losses is a definite possibility but predicting more than that is not realistic based on the past 8 years of data, the teams talent and coaching. Not a single team on the schedule has more overall roster talent.
This is going to be a great year in the SEC, lots of great games and teams with potential to have great seasons.
Contenders
Bama
LSU
UT
Ole Miss
UGA
UF
On the cusp
ARK
Au
TAMU
Not gonna happen (win sec)
MSST
USCe
UK
Vandy
Mizzou
Posted on 6/14/16 at 9:35 am to BHMKyle
Pretty good post and research. I'd say it's not alarming that Bama has had few road games against ranked opponents, but it's something to certainly look at.
Going into last season, Bama had to at UGA (coming off of a 10-win season and was a favorite to win the east), Mississippi State (10-win season in 2014 and returned one of the best QB's in the SEC), A&M (boom or bust type program), and of course ending the season at Jordan Hare against an Auburn squad that was considered a "safe pick" to the playoffs.
So a lot of times, this can be by chance. Plus now Tennessee is now getting back into the swing of things, so this should improve the quantity of tougher opponents on the road.
Going into last season, Bama had to at UGA (coming off of a 10-win season and was a favorite to win the east), Mississippi State (10-win season in 2014 and returned one of the best QB's in the SEC), A&M (boom or bust type program), and of course ending the season at Jordan Hare against an Auburn squad that was considered a "safe pick" to the playoffs.
So a lot of times, this can be by chance. Plus now Tennessee is now getting back into the swing of things, so this should improve the quantity of tougher opponents on the road.
Posted on 6/14/16 at 9:36 am to cajunbama
quote:
I don't feel like checking your work, but it usually has several errors. This was one I know is wrong. 2010 UF at Alabama. UF got beat up.
You should worry about checking your own work. UF did not finish ranked that season, hence why they were left off the list.
Posted on 6/14/16 at 9:39 am to Five0
quote:
Yeah, last year who was a tough road schedule?
WI (neutral) 35-17
GA 38-10
A&M 41-23
MSU 31-6
Of those, only Wisconsin finished the season ranked... #21.
Georgia, A&M, and MSU all finished the year outside the Top 25. So congrats! You played four true road games last season and none of those opponents finished in the Top 25.
In 2016, you'll play four more true road games.... 3 of those opponents will be ranked in the Preseason Top 15, and the other will be around #30. Those teams may fall apart and not live up to their preseason hype. But if they are indeed ranked about where they should be, Bama will have a much more difficult road this year compared to last year.
Posted on 6/14/16 at 9:41 am to Othello
quote:
38-10 against a top 5 team on the road last year, playa
Georgia was never truly a Top 5 team. Even with Chubb. Had Chubb stayed healthy, who knows? But with our QB issues, we were never close to Top 5. That's why final season rankings have got to be used. Otherwise, its not accurate.
Posted on 6/14/16 at 9:45 am to BHMKyle
we're playing LSU at LSU?
mark it a W
mark it a W
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