Started By
Message
Bama's Road Schedule
Posted on 6/13/16 at 1:54 pm
Posted on 6/13/16 at 1:54 pm
One thing I've not seen discussed much about this upcoming season is Bama's difficult road schedule.
Alabama is obviously talented and will most likely compete for the National Championship once again, but if preseason projections are at all close to how teams will finish at the end of the season, Alabama has its work cut out for them.
Let's take a look at Alabama's schedule. Opponents' rankings are based on an average of all major preseason polls released thus far:
They play #5 LSU in Baton Rouge
They play #7 Tennessee in Knoxville
They play #11 Ole Miss in Oxford
They play #15 USC in Dallas
They play #27 Texas A&M in Tuscaloosa
They play #30 Arkansas in Fayetteville
They play #32 Auburn in Tuscaloosa
That's a pretty tough schedule, especially with the three projected toughest opponents all being road games.
So how has Saban's Alabama teams handled difficult road games? Why not look back at history since he came to Alabama. If you use *FINAL* AP rankings (because in-game rankings are not accurate), here is how Saban has faired since becoming Bama's head coach:
Saban is 28-15 overall against teams that finish ranked in the AP Poll.
Saban is 13-4 against ranked teams in Neutral Site Games (76.5%)
Saban is 10-6 against ranked teams in Home Games (62.5%)
Saban is 5-5 against ranked teams in true Road Games (50.0%)
While 50% is a very good winning percentage for anyone against ranked teams on the road, it does show even Alabama has their struggles against good teams in hostile environments.
The truth is, Saban's Bama teams rarely play GREAT teams on the road. Only two times in 9 seasons has Alabama played a road game against an opponent that finished in the AP Top 10.... Bama lost both of those games (2010 LSU and 2013 Auburn).
If you take all 10 of those ranked opponents Bama has faced on the road, their average final ranking was just #14 (14.1 to be exact). This compares to their average ranked home opponent finishing #11 (11.1) and their average ranked Neutral Site opponent finishing #8 (8.4).
Here are the toughest road opponents Bama has faced under Saban, ranked in order of their final AP Ranking, along with the outcome of the game:
#2 Auburn in 2013... Bama lost by 6 points
#8 LSU in 2010... Bama lost by 3 points
#12 Arkansas in 2010... Bama won by 4 points
#13 Georgia in 2008... Bama won by 11 points
#14 LSU in 2012... Bama won by 4 points
#15 Auburn in 2007... Bama lost by 7 points
#17 Ole Miss in 2014... Bama lost by 6 points
#18 Texas A&M in 2013... Bama won by 7 points
#20 Ole Miss in 2010... Bama won by 19 points
#22 S. Carolina in 2010... Bama lost by 14 points
When you take them all and put them together, Bama has a record of 5-5... outscoring these teams by 0.9 points each time. Eight of the 10 games ended with Bama either losing or winning by a touchdown or less.
All of this shows me that Bama has their work cut out for them. They will have 3 or 4 very close games to deal with. Sure, there is a chance that Tennessee, Ole Miss, and LSU will all fail to meet preseason expectations. However, its unlikely they all fall flat.
Saban has faced just 10 opponents that finished in the Final AP Top 25 on the road during the past 9 seasons. Their schedule has been extremely favorable in this regard. If suddenly Bama plays 3 such teams all in a single season..... with a a new QB, several new starters, and a new DC.... this may be the year that Bama is not in the hunt for the NC come December.
I see Bama going 10-2, with losses to Tennessee and LSU. They'll finish just outside the Top 5 if they win their bowl game, but they'll be somewhere around #10 at the end of December. All in all, a good year... but disappointing for Bama's high expectations.
Alabama is obviously talented and will most likely compete for the National Championship once again, but if preseason projections are at all close to how teams will finish at the end of the season, Alabama has its work cut out for them.
Let's take a look at Alabama's schedule. Opponents' rankings are based on an average of all major preseason polls released thus far:
They play #5 LSU in Baton Rouge
They play #7 Tennessee in Knoxville
They play #11 Ole Miss in Oxford
They play #15 USC in Dallas
They play #27 Texas A&M in Tuscaloosa
They play #30 Arkansas in Fayetteville
They play #32 Auburn in Tuscaloosa
That's a pretty tough schedule, especially with the three projected toughest opponents all being road games.
So how has Saban's Alabama teams handled difficult road games? Why not look back at history since he came to Alabama. If you use *FINAL* AP rankings (because in-game rankings are not accurate), here is how Saban has faired since becoming Bama's head coach:
Saban is 28-15 overall against teams that finish ranked in the AP Poll.
Saban is 13-4 against ranked teams in Neutral Site Games (76.5%)
Saban is 10-6 against ranked teams in Home Games (62.5%)
Saban is 5-5 against ranked teams in true Road Games (50.0%)
While 50% is a very good winning percentage for anyone against ranked teams on the road, it does show even Alabama has their struggles against good teams in hostile environments.
The truth is, Saban's Bama teams rarely play GREAT teams on the road. Only two times in 9 seasons has Alabama played a road game against an opponent that finished in the AP Top 10.... Bama lost both of those games (2010 LSU and 2013 Auburn).
If you take all 10 of those ranked opponents Bama has faced on the road, their average final ranking was just #14 (14.1 to be exact). This compares to their average ranked home opponent finishing #11 (11.1) and their average ranked Neutral Site opponent finishing #8 (8.4).
Here are the toughest road opponents Bama has faced under Saban, ranked in order of their final AP Ranking, along with the outcome of the game:
#2 Auburn in 2013... Bama lost by 6 points
#8 LSU in 2010... Bama lost by 3 points
#12 Arkansas in 2010... Bama won by 4 points
#13 Georgia in 2008... Bama won by 11 points
#14 LSU in 2012... Bama won by 4 points
#15 Auburn in 2007... Bama lost by 7 points
#17 Ole Miss in 2014... Bama lost by 6 points
#18 Texas A&M in 2013... Bama won by 7 points
#20 Ole Miss in 2010... Bama won by 19 points
#22 S. Carolina in 2010... Bama lost by 14 points
When you take them all and put them together, Bama has a record of 5-5... outscoring these teams by 0.9 points each time. Eight of the 10 games ended with Bama either losing or winning by a touchdown or less.
All of this shows me that Bama has their work cut out for them. They will have 3 or 4 very close games to deal with. Sure, there is a chance that Tennessee, Ole Miss, and LSU will all fail to meet preseason expectations. However, its unlikely they all fall flat.
Saban has faced just 10 opponents that finished in the Final AP Top 25 on the road during the past 9 seasons. Their schedule has been extremely favorable in this regard. If suddenly Bama plays 3 such teams all in a single season..... with a a new QB, several new starters, and a new DC.... this may be the year that Bama is not in the hunt for the NC come December.
I see Bama going 10-2, with losses to Tennessee and LSU. They'll finish just outside the Top 5 if they win their bowl game, but they'll be somewhere around #10 at the end of December. All in all, a good year... but disappointing for Bama's high expectations.
23
Posted on 6/13/16 at 1:58 pm to BHMKyle
The goal posts in Neyland are coming down when VOLS stick their big orange boot up Alabama's arse on TSIO
Posted on 6/13/16 at 1:58 pm to BHMKyle
That's a lot of information there slick. It's gonna be a brutal schedule for sure. We really need a quarterback to step up and grab the bull by the horns early this year.
Posted on 6/13/16 at 1:59 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
with losses to Tennessee and LSU.
I mean it's possible but this hasn't happened in a decade. I'll take that bet
Posted on 6/13/16 at 1:59 pm to BHMKyle
Posted on 6/13/16 at 1:59 pm to BHMKyle
quote:Circa 2008 - infinity
see Bama going 10-2, with losses to Tennessee and LSU.
Posted on 6/13/16 at 1:59 pm to Bama Eric
I cant wait for another Vols collapse. Its going to be hilarious.
Posted on 6/13/16 at 2:02 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
#2 Auburn in 2013... Bama lost by 6 points
I remember that night
Posted on 6/13/16 at 2:09 pm to Bama Eric
quote:
It's gonna be a brutal schedule for sure. We really need a quarterback to step up and grab the bull by the horns early this year.
It all depends on how things turn out...
Bama's schedule looked daunting last season if you went by the preseason polls.
They had to play preseason #6 Auburn in Auburn
They had to play preseason #9 Georgia in Athens
They had to play preseason #14 LSU in Tuscaloosa
They had to play preseason #17 Ole Miss in Tuscaloosa
They had to play preseason #18 Arkansas in Tuscaloosa
They had to play preseason #20 Wisconsin in Dallas
They had to play preseason #25 Tennessee in Tuscaloosa
Of course many of those opponents ended up falling way short of their preseason hype.
There is certainly a chance that LSU, Tennessee, and Ole Miss all fail to come close to the preseason Top 10. But the difference I see between this year and last year is that there was no way everyone was going to live up to their preseason expectations last year. The Preseason AP last year featured 5 SEC West teams in the Top 18. That's just not feasible.
This year looks to be different. In all likelihood, just 3 SEC West teams will start in the Preseason Top 25. I think that sounds a bit more realistic than 5 in the Top 18.
Posted on 6/13/16 at 2:09 pm to LanierSpots
quote:
I remember that night
Is there a video link? I think there was a big play near the end.
Posted on 6/13/16 at 2:10 pm to TheDarrell McSteal
quote:
The goal posts in Neyland are coming down
Don't be like ole miss
Posted on 6/13/16 at 2:24 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
#2 Auburn in 2013... Bama lost by 6 points
Posted on 6/13/16 at 2:26 pm to rmnldr
Such a great gif 
Posted on 6/13/16 at 2:33 pm to LanierSpots
quote:
I remember that night
Clearly didn't get drunk enough after the game.
Posted on 6/13/16 at 2:49 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
They play #5 LSU in Baton Rouge
They play #7 Tennessee in Knoxville
They play #11 Ole Miss in Oxford
They play #15 USC in Dallas
They play #27 Texas A&M in Tuscaloosa
They play #30 Arkansas in Fayetteville
They play #32 Auburn in Tuscaloosa
So, 3 games against ranked opponents on the road. 1 game at a "neutral" site. Okay?
Posted on 6/13/16 at 2:52 pm to Tiger the Hutt
quote:
So, 3 games against ranked opponents on the road. 1 game at a "neutral" site. Okay?
3 in the Top 11, all on the road.
4 in the Top 15, all away from home.
Does that sound normal to you? Care to name all the other times that has happened?
Posted on 6/13/16 at 2:59 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
Saban is 5-5 against ranked teams in true Road Games (50.0%)
not too bad, i guess.
quote:
#2 Auburn in 2013... Bama lost by 6 points
only time in CFB history a game ended on a missed FG returned for a TD (and only 4th time in 50 years it happened at any point in a game). Not exactly a typical game.
quote:
#8 LSU in 2010... Bama lost by 3 points
Sucked. Still, one score game.
quote:
#15 Auburn in 2007... Bama lost by 7 points
Saban's first year in T-town with a team that lost 4 straight to end season. Bama lost, but 2007 Bama and 2016 Bama are different teams. One was built almost entirely by Shula. The other was built entirely by Saban.
quote:
#17 Ole Miss in 2014... Bama lost by 6 points
Sucked. Still, one score game with the ball and a chance to win late.
quote:
#22 S. Carolina in 2010... Bama lost by 14 points
This ended a 29 game regular season unbeaten streak and a 19 game winning streak (let me know when someone else in the conference gets there). Garcia played game of his life.
Only one of Saban's road loses was by more than 1 score - and it's one of only 4 since he's been at Bama that the Tide lost by more than 7. Bottom line, tough road schedule in 2016 and Bama can't win the conference championship every year, but I like the Tide's chances each week.
Posted on 6/13/16 at 3:08 pm to bamasgot13
It will be a chore but I like our chances.
It all comes down to Qb.
It all comes down to Qb.
Posted on 6/13/16 at 3:20 pm to Riseupfromtherubble
quote:
I mean it's possible but this hasn't happened in a decade. I'll take that bet
I'll bet that Bama takes an L in BR this year.
Name it
Posted on 6/13/16 at 3:27 pm to BHMKyle
I could see this end like the 2010 season. It's hard to get a team to become as hungry to win after just winning it all.
I think Alabama should be happy if they can win it all in the next three years.
One thing you can't factor is how each team circles us as the game they want to win the most.
I think Alabama should be happy if they can win it all in the next three years.
One thing you can't factor is how each team circles us as the game they want to win the most.
Page 1 of 8
Popular
Back to top
Follow SECRant for SEC Football News