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re: Auburn could have hired Kirby after the 2012 season.
Posted on 12/21/17 at 12:22 pm to 14&Counting
Posted on 12/21/17 at 12:22 pm to 14&Counting
quote:
LOL - pump the breaks on that one.....Kirby hasn't got to the title game yet. OU may bounce UGA.
Forget it was was the bcs?
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Posted on 12/21/17 at 12:27 pm to djsdawg
quote:
Forget it was was the bcs?
Apparently..his post was just woefully devoid of any logic. Even if Kirby loses to OU his season has still gone the exact same as gus's, only our loss was to a better team.
Posted on 12/21/17 at 12:39 pm to AUstar
Expectations for Kirby should be higher than those for Gus. Right now they've performed about evenly early on.
I think Kirby should surpass Gus in the near term because he'll probably be able to string together 9-11 win seasons more frequently than Gus has to date (assuming UGA doesn't win the playoff, which would put him above Gus for that reason). Hopefully Gus will have better performing teams in that same span, but his recent mediocrity hurts him.
I'm not at all convinced Kirby will ultimately be the better coach, but I do think he's in a better position to bump his resume above that of Gus for the near future. Of course, if Gus can put together more 10-11 win years he may be able to keep up even in the near term.
In short, I think Kirby will be able to pull off better year to year W-L results than Gus, but I won't be surprised if Gus matches or exceeds Kirby in truly elite seasons when everything is done. In other words, a continuation of the UGA-Auburn situation in pre-Smart times. Hopefully UGA isn't about to go on some dynasty run and prove this all inaccurate.
I think Kirby should surpass Gus in the near term because he'll probably be able to string together 9-11 win seasons more frequently than Gus has to date (assuming UGA doesn't win the playoff, which would put him above Gus for that reason). Hopefully Gus will have better performing teams in that same span, but his recent mediocrity hurts him.
I'm not at all convinced Kirby will ultimately be the better coach, but I do think he's in a better position to bump his resume above that of Gus for the near future. Of course, if Gus can put together more 10-11 win years he may be able to keep up even in the near term.
In short, I think Kirby will be able to pull off better year to year W-L results than Gus, but I won't be surprised if Gus matches or exceeds Kirby in truly elite seasons when everything is done. In other words, a continuation of the UGA-Auburn situation in pre-Smart times. Hopefully UGA isn't about to go on some dynasty run and prove this all inaccurate.
Posted on 12/21/17 at 12:51 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
And don't give me the "reaching a National Title Game" crap... there was no Playoff then. It's not like Auburn won a Semifinal Game to reach the Championship. When it comes to Trophies and records, Kirby this season can do no worse than what Gus did in '13.... and it could very likely end up being better.
This entire thread is silly, but it is interesting that if we were using the BCS system uga wouldn't be in the title game. IMO.
It is always easy to look back and make decisions, but at the time Auburn hired Gus he was the better overall candidate. Kirby was a Saban disciple seen by many as a puppet. I never believed that, but it was the narrative. Dye wanted Kirby, the Auburn 3 went with Gus. Kirby made it easy on them by asking for things Auburn had no intention of giving.
The team Auburn had in 2013 was not nearly the team uga is in 2017. Gus should get a ton of credit for the coaching job. The miracle finish against uga doesn't wipe out a season a critical strategic coaching moves.
Luck is a part of football and all championship teams need a bit of luck during a run...UTk missed FG's in 2009, Iowa State 2011, uga not getting out of bounds 2012, uga tip 2013, Auburn forgetting how to tackle 2013, Auburn's injuries 2017...sometimes you benefit from the luck sometimes it hurts you.
Posted on 12/21/17 at 12:54 pm to Tigerman97
quote:
but it is interesting that if we were using the BCS system uga wouldn't be in the title game. IMO.
that's debatable. Plenty of BCS simulations have us ranked second.
Clemson- ACC Champ, loss to syracuse (wtf?)
OU- B12 Champ, loss to iowa state (wtf?)
UGA- SEC champ, loss to Auburn (ranked 2nd, we also beat Auburn)
Computers loved clemson for the strength of many of their wins but it's not a slam dunk OU would go over us.
Posted on 12/21/17 at 12:55 pm to WG_Dawg
quote:
that's debatable. Plenty of BCS simulations have us ranked second.
That's why I said IMO...Clemson was in...The BCS historically punished late season loses more than the committee. I bet it would have ended Clemson vs Okie.
Posted on 12/21/17 at 1:41 pm to djsdawg
quote:
Try to stay on topic: We are talking about gus. His year 2 was 8-5. Smashed by Richt. He followed that up with more mediocrity years and still might lose 4 games.
Keep trying to call it a 4 loss season to make yourself feel better. The real truth of the matter is that Auburn is going to finish with 1 more loss than UGA on the season, despite playing an exponentially more difficult schedule.
UGA played 4 teams that had a losing record and are not going to a bowl game. They also beat an FCS school, Kentucky, and Missouri. I'm sorry everyone isn't bowing down and crowning Kirby the king of football for rolling through that schedule relatively easily.
UGA got their arse handed to them the first time they played a legitimate team this year, and then was given 3 weeks to prepare for a rematch. The team was good this year, but was untested and is getting ready to lose to the second legitimate team you will face this year- and this time you won't get a rematch.
I think all anybody is saying is why don't you wait and see what happens before declaring Kirby the greatest of all time. Every team you are putting down has won a more recent championship than UGA. UGA not finishing the deal is way more conistent than UF 8-5 seasons.
Posted on 12/21/17 at 1:44 pm to GenesChin
quote:
Go on.......
I've heard the same thing from someone that knows Kirby's family. Kirby was making "demands"/requests basically asking AU to become an open book and let him go through things such as Cam Newton investigation + 3rd party documentation
There is no way Auburn is letting their biggest rivals' DC comb through all their stuff. Especially if he wasn't for sure the #1 candidate
^^^^^^
What he said.
Again, Kirby wanted to know things that were none of his business as a HC candidate.
Posted on 12/21/17 at 1:46 pm to ATLtiger12
quote:
UGA got their arse handed to them the first time they played a legitimate team this year, and then was given 3 weeks to prepare for a rematch
AU didn't get the same amoutn of weeks to prepare? LOL. We also had to prepare for an archaic offense that nobody runs anymore, which kinda takes a good bit of attention in game prep. We also had UK while yall had ULM. If anything AU had more time to prep than us.
quote:
getting ready to lose to the second legitimate team you will face this year- and this time you won't get a rematch.
In your eyes we had 3 weeks to really gear up for the SECCG which somehow made us win, now we get 4 weeks to prepare but we're automatically going to lose?
quote:
I think all anybody is saying is why don't you wait and see what happens before declaring Kirby the greatest of all time.
If you can show me one single solitary person that says kirby is the greatest ever I'll kill myself. Nobody thinks he's the greatest ever. We think he's really damn good and going ot have UGA competing for titles. Is that off base?
Posted on 12/21/17 at 1:46 pm to 14&Counting
quote:
probably safer top go with someone from Saban's coaching tree than Houston Nutt's
Tell that to UF.
Posted on 12/21/17 at 1:49 pm to WG_Dawg
quote:
Even if Kirby loses to OU his season has still gone the exact same as gus's, only our loss was to a better team.
What you are ignoring is Gus took over a team that went winless in the SEC the year before.
Kirby is a good coach. Gus' resume is better at this point. He has won the West in two out of his five years..........all while bama is on their roll.
Posted on 12/21/17 at 2:01 pm to Tigerman97
quote:
That's why I said IMO...Clemson was in...The BCS historically punished late season loses more than the committee. I bet it would have ended Clemson vs Okie.
Essentially every BCS "replacement" simulation that I've seen has had UGA at 2 and Oklahoma at 3...
LINK
LINK
Your "opinion" doesn't offset the simulations of what is more or less a known quantity in terms of equation... while it can't be exact as there are some systems that are no longer present and have to be substituted, the closest approximation shows that you'd be wrong.
"punished late season losses" was typically due to the actual AP poll (read: human) bias... not the computer calculations.
This post was edited on 12/21/17 at 2:02 pm
Posted on 12/21/17 at 2:10 pm to ATLtiger12
quote:
I think all anybody is saying is why don't you wait and see what happens before declaring Kirby the greatest of all time. Every team you are putting down has won a more recent championship than UGA.
I think this is fair.
My personal belief is that Kirby is and will be a more successful coach than Gus. Part of that is the fact that he has an easier path being in the East rather than the West. But if I had to pick which one I'd prefer to coach my team, obviously I'd choose Kirby.
With that said, assuming Auburn gets past UCF, Gus is looking at a Top 10.... possibly even Top 5 finish in Year 5. Very few coaches in this day and age even make it to Year 5, let alone are able to produce a Top 10 team.
Guys like Chizik (2010), Muschamp (2012), Sumlin (2012), Freeze (2015), etc. all managed Top 10 teams in their first few years mainly because they were working off new energy. But its very tough to maintain that energy and still produce Top 10 teams after 5 years or more.
Over the past 30+ years, its mostly only the "Greats" that have accomplished this: Saban, Meyer, Spurrier, Fulmer, Richt, etc. A few other like Tuberville and Pinkel also managed this. But its not common.
Until Kirby can accomplish major success after the newness wares off, I think we all need to pump our breaks. But its hard not to get excited when you see the type of talent he's bringing in. This time it truly does feel different.
Posted on 12/21/17 at 2:13 pm to fibonaccisquared
quote:
Your "opinion" doesn't offset the simulations of what is more or less a known quantity in terms of equation... while it can't be exact as there are some systems that are no longer present and have to be substituted, the closest approximation shows that you'd be wrong.
Again those simulations have to use the info at hand which is skewed now because of the Committee...no simulation can accurately depict what would have happened if you some how could have miraculously applied the old system on this season. What we do know is uga finished #3 in the Coaches poll? It is likely the Harris Poll would have followed suit?
As those simulations admit in the links you provide they aren't accurate because they aren't using the correct info.
Another factor under the BCS formula there is zero chance Auburn would have been ranked #2 in the SECCG...which would have weakened the only advantage uga had on Okie in the computer analysis.
This post was edited on 12/21/17 at 2:21 pm
Posted on 12/21/17 at 2:16 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
I think this is fair.
Overlooking the fact that no one is declaring that kirby is the greatest of all time?
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