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re: 2013 SEC defenses - will they regress?
Posted on 6/19/13 at 2:45 pm to bisonduck
Posted on 6/19/13 at 2:45 pm to bisonduck
They don't suggest much of anything -- considering how the teams you are projecting a drop-off from have recruited and developed. This is a cautionary tale that basically shows that you are new to SEC football in general. Why?
Because Alabama, LSU, Georgia, and Florida are supposed to experience huge defensive drop offs every year after all they lose to the NFL -- and you know what? It basically NEVER works out that way -- especially not concurrently.
Feel free to post the same numbers from past Phil Steele editions so I can prove the meaningless nature of these numbers to you...
You will look up in November -- and the SEC will have 8-9 teams ranked in the top 30 in scoring defense -- and the whole premise of a drop-off will be laughed at...
Because Alabama, LSU, Georgia, and Florida are supposed to experience huge defensive drop offs every year after all they lose to the NFL -- and you know what? It basically NEVER works out that way -- especially not concurrently.
Feel free to post the same numbers from past Phil Steele editions so I can prove the meaningless nature of these numbers to you...
You will look up in November -- and the SEC will have 8-9 teams ranked in the top 30 in scoring defense -- and the whole premise of a drop-off will be laughed at...
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Posted on 6/19/13 at 2:53 pm to Bmath
You also know intuitively that losing Simon, Minter, Montgomery, Reid, Logan, Mingo and solid guys like Edwards and Downs is a lot to replace. LSU is going to field a great defense. I am not saying the SEC is all of sudden going to be the bridesmaid to another conference.
Also, as far as where 58% vs 56% lands you is not the point here. Everyone from LSU down is only bringing back half of their tackles. There is, of course, a muddled middle. It's not like the upper crust teams fall in the muddled middle though.
Also, as far as where 58% vs 56% lands you is not the point here. Everyone from LSU down is only bringing back half of their tackles. There is, of course, a muddled middle. It's not like the upper crust teams fall in the muddled middle though.
Posted on 6/19/13 at 3:05 pm to bisonduck
I am not disagreeing that they are losing a lot. My point is that they aren't exactly throwing in freshman or 5th year seniors previously buried on the depth chart. They have a good group coming in that have solid experience.
I do concede that they may experience more growing pains than some.
I do concede that they may experience more growing pains than some.
Posted on 6/19/13 at 3:12 pm to Bmath
The worst that you've ranked in % of returning tackles is #67 last year year (of the prior 5). You went from #2 to #8. This year you rank #101, which is a full drop of 12% in returning tackles of any in the last 5 years. This definitely is considered an anomalous year for the SEC considering that UF, Georgia, USCe and A&M, for all intents and purposes, are concurrently experiencing the same.
When coupled with what looks to be a deep signal caller class and a lot of good skill players, it seems like a legit questions.
When coupled with what looks to be a deep signal caller class and a lot of good skill players, it seems like a legit questions.
This post was edited on 6/19/13 at 3:13 pm
Posted on 6/19/13 at 3:13 pm to bisonduck
The point is with the upper tier SEC schools like Bama, LSU, UF, & UGA, the over all depth is so much that the guy who is replacing a starter from last year is at least as good, if not more talented than the guy he is replacing. Just because he only had say 50 tackles compared to the 90 of his predecessor, he had enough experience that he won't be at a loss when he is in the game.
The fact that the top tier SEC schools consistantly pull in top 10 recruiting classes greatly reduces the risk that they will have a massive drop off in production has a whole defensive (or offensive) unit. Bama for instance will probably have a better defense this year than last year, despite losing the players that they did.
Also the fact that the SEC schools pay top dollar for their coordinators is another factor that midigates the risk of having huge dropoffs in production, especially on defense. While LSU has lost quite a few starters, they still have more talent on defense that 90% of the teams in the NCAA, plus they have an established defensive coordinator that has proved over the course of many a years that he can put together excellent defensive gameplans (unless he is in 3rd and long situations
).
Regardless of how many starters the SEC teams have lost on defense, I would bet my house that there will still be more SEC teams in the top 10, top 20, and top 50 schools for defense this year than any other conference (and probably more than multiple conferences combined).
The fact that the top tier SEC schools consistantly pull in top 10 recruiting classes greatly reduces the risk that they will have a massive drop off in production has a whole defensive (or offensive) unit. Bama for instance will probably have a better defense this year than last year, despite losing the players that they did.
Also the fact that the SEC schools pay top dollar for their coordinators is another factor that midigates the risk of having huge dropoffs in production, especially on defense. While LSU has lost quite a few starters, they still have more talent on defense that 90% of the teams in the NCAA, plus they have an established defensive coordinator that has proved over the course of many a years that he can put together excellent defensive gameplans (unless he is in 3rd and long situations
). Regardless of how many starters the SEC teams have lost on defense, I would bet my house that there will still be more SEC teams in the top 10, top 20, and top 50 schools for defense this year than any other conference (and probably more than multiple conferences combined).
Posted on 6/19/13 at 3:15 pm to bisonduck
Oregon isnt going to do anything this season. So trying to justify how our defenses will not be good this season isnt going to make your team any better.
Posted on 6/19/13 at 3:15 pm to Hogwall Jackson
quote:
Oregon isnt going to do anything this season. So trying to justify how our defenses will not be good this season isnt going to make your team any better.
Ok
Posted on 6/19/13 at 3:16 pm to bisonduck
Glad you agree
Posted on 6/19/13 at 3:49 pm to bisonduck
Florida's secondary is getting overlooked natinoally (not that it matters).
Roberson is probably a better corner than Purifoy right now, he just doesn't project quite as high in the draft - although they are both projected in the first 2 rounds.
Jaylen Watkins has a ton of upside at safety, where he is moving after a couple of solid years playing corner.
The UF defensive line is going to be pretty damn good as well, although there aren't a lot of returning tackles. Just a lot of talent and depth. Ronald Powell coming back is a huge boost too. UF's only question is LB, and even there it's not like they are starting true freshmen.
And that's just Florida. I assure you that LSU, Georgia, Alabama, and South Carolina are all returning very talented defensive players.
Alabama has been #1 in defense for like 3 years now, and the SEC has been dominant defensively for a few years now. I don't see why anything is really going to change.
Roberson is probably a better corner than Purifoy right now, he just doesn't project quite as high in the draft - although they are both projected in the first 2 rounds.
Jaylen Watkins has a ton of upside at safety, where he is moving after a couple of solid years playing corner.
The UF defensive line is going to be pretty damn good as well, although there aren't a lot of returning tackles. Just a lot of talent and depth. Ronald Powell coming back is a huge boost too. UF's only question is LB, and even there it's not like they are starting true freshmen.
And that's just Florida. I assure you that LSU, Georgia, Alabama, and South Carolina are all returning very talented defensive players.
Alabama has been #1 in defense for like 3 years now, and the SEC has been dominant defensively for a few years now. I don't see why anything is really going to change.
Posted on 6/19/13 at 3:52 pm to slayerxing
I put Florida in my top 5 defenses (#1 actually) seeing the names returning. I think I may have overestimated looking the metrics. I think Stanford is poised to shut down a lot of teams. They are stellar in every unit have no holes. I had them #2.
Posted on 6/19/13 at 4:26 pm to bisonduck
EXACTLY
Will you be concerned about the lack of tackles returning to oregon next year?
Will you be concerned about the lack of tackles returning to oregon next year?
Posted on 6/19/13 at 4:27 pm to bisonduck
I wouldn't count Bama out as having the #1 defense again this year. Our 2010 defense was a lot more inexperienced than this year's, but they still finished in the top 3 (depending on what you base the rankings on).
Posted on 6/19/13 at 4:29 pm to Hogwall Jackson
quote:
Glad you agree
Bielema: "I can't beat the Pac, so let's go to the SEC."
Posted on 6/19/13 at 4:31 pm to bisonduck
LSU won't necessarily drop way off. Everyone has been waiting for Alabama to do the same for the last five years. Even in 2010, after replacing 10 defensive starters off a national title team, they still finished top ten in total defense.
Posted on 6/19/13 at 4:31 pm to bisonduck
..."oh, shite, I can't get away from the spread."
Posted on 6/19/13 at 4:32 pm to CapstoneGrad06
quote:
Even in 2010, after replacing 10 defensive starters off a national title team, they still finished top ten in total defense.
But they regressed...
Posted on 6/19/13 at 4:49 pm to bisonduck
There may be some drop off with LSU's defense, but I can assure you that by mid-season the defense will look every bit as good as they did last year and in prior seasons.
They'll probably look really good against TCU in the first game of the year because LSU can matchup with anyone.
They'll probably look really good against TCU in the first game of the year because LSU can matchup with anyone.
Posted on 6/19/13 at 5:07 pm to bisonduck
Those are some great players you named as departing from LSU.
BUT, contrary to popular belief the LSU '13 defense will be deeper and more experienced than the '12 defense in the back seven.
Tigers starting secondary last year consisted of
CB - Tr FR and Jr starting for the first time.
Safety - Jr returning starter and Jr first time starter.
Nickle and dime backs - two freshmen
3rd and 4th safties - Tr So and Tr Fr
'13 starters
CBs - two sophs, one returning starter was a Fr all american, the other was the nickle back in '12 and he was Fr all SEC
safety - Sr returning starter, top 5 saftey in the country per Rod and a Jr
backup CB two RFr. One actually played in three of first four games
backup safties - two sophs that played a bunch last year.
'12 secondary had three players that had much PT heading into the season
'13 secondary has six players that saw the field in pretty much every game last year.
LSU had one returning starter at LB for '12 and two more that had quality minutes. Lost one of those before the season started (academics). That' was it as for LB experience
'13 team returns One full time starter with 100+ tackles last season and three more that have multiple games starting experience. Return the academic casualty.
Tigers had four Tr Fr LBs that played defense at sometime in most every game last year.
LSU returns seven LBs that have played quality minutes VS quality SEC opponents.
The only position group to suffer MAJOR losses is the D-line. Tigers top 5 (3 DEs and 2 DTs) returning are legit. LSU needs to develop depth there. That hasn't been a problem for LSU in a LONG time.
BUT, contrary to popular belief the LSU '13 defense will be deeper and more experienced than the '12 defense in the back seven.
Tigers starting secondary last year consisted of
CB - Tr FR and Jr starting for the first time.
Safety - Jr returning starter and Jr first time starter.
Nickle and dime backs - two freshmen
3rd and 4th safties - Tr So and Tr Fr
'13 starters
CBs - two sophs, one returning starter was a Fr all american, the other was the nickle back in '12 and he was Fr all SEC
safety - Sr returning starter, top 5 saftey in the country per Rod and a Jr
backup CB two RFr. One actually played in three of first four games
backup safties - two sophs that played a bunch last year.
'12 secondary had three players that had much PT heading into the season
'13 secondary has six players that saw the field in pretty much every game last year.
LSU had one returning starter at LB for '12 and two more that had quality minutes. Lost one of those before the season started (academics). That' was it as for LB experience
'13 team returns One full time starter with 100+ tackles last season and three more that have multiple games starting experience. Return the academic casualty.
Tigers had four Tr Fr LBs that played defense at sometime in most every game last year.
LSU returns seven LBs that have played quality minutes VS quality SEC opponents.
The only position group to suffer MAJOR losses is the D-line. Tigers top 5 (3 DEs and 2 DTs) returning are legit. LSU needs to develop depth there. That hasn't been a problem for LSU in a LONG time.
Posted on 6/19/13 at 5:10 pm to 167back
I am not doubting that the back 7 is great. However, we all know it starts on the dline, especially in the 4-3. Last year's USC had an all world back 7 and a brand new front line. The DLINE was all blue chip but inexperienced. I totally expect LSU to field a better dline than last year's USC but to say that the back 7 will be better, so that will make up for losing Montgomery, Mingo, Logan, Edwards, Downs, etc.) isn't enough. I would say too that the back 7 for LSU still isn't up to your pinnacle.
This post was edited on 6/19/13 at 5:12 pm
Posted on 6/19/13 at 5:29 pm to bisonduck
quote:
But they regressed...
Not by much. They still finished 1st in the SEC in total defense and went from #2 in the country to #5 in the country in total defense. That is regression but not the kind of regression you normally see after a defense loses virtually all of its starters to graduation and the draft.
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