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re: 2013 SEC defenses - will they regress?

Posted on 6/19/13 at 9:04 am to
Posted by parkjas2001
Gustav Fan Club: Consigliere
Member since Feb 2010
45000 posts
Posted on 6/19/13 at 9:04 am to
quote:

What about 3 win teams?


MSU shouldn't be that bad but I dont think they will get a BCSCG invite.
Posted by ShaneTheLegLechler
Member since Dec 2011
60148 posts
Posted on 6/19/13 at 9:08 am to
quote:

Helfrich - HC at Oregon


Still can't believe Oregon had to settle for some no name assistant with all that "Nike Money". Real coaches must have seen the writing on the wall re: the NCAA
This post was edited on 6/19/13 at 9:09 am
Posted by Settingthestandard
Titletown USA 2
Member since Apr 2013
521 posts
Posted on 6/19/13 at 9:25 am to
Uh yea. OK. To answer this, I wouldn't trade any Bama defensive player for any from Oregon, TCU, either OSU, Soonerland or Hinds community college. We've lost a lot over the years early to the draft and been about the same every year.
Nope, not worried. No regression.
Posted by lowspark12
nashville, tn
Member since Aug 2009
22366 posts
Posted on 6/19/13 at 9:45 am to
My question is how do you know if defenses are down, or the offenses are just better?... the only real way to know is with non-conference matchups, and even those are fool proof indicators of a league's strength.
Posted by bisonduck
Oregon City, OR
Member since Apr 2011
12977 posts
Posted on 6/19/13 at 12:28 pm to
Ifo could very well be the first cb taken in next year's draft. Dion Jordan went 3rd in the recent draft and there are several players in the wings that expect to do the same. Chip went out and got monsters on the dline.

OOC see play will be telling. Can't wait for football. It wouldn't be surprising to see the SEC overcome the experience gap but it does give the rest of the country (or just me) some comfort.
This post was edited on 6/19/13 at 12:30 pm
Posted by MetryTyger
Metro NOLA, LA
Member since Jan 2004
15590 posts
Posted on 6/19/13 at 1:47 pm to
What ya'll (you guys, dudes) don't get is that the SEC defenses have DEPTH. LSU and probably Bama too, have returning players on defense who played a lot last year. I think the 'inexperience' card is a major misnomer.
Dude.
Posted by Sheetbend
Member since Apr 2013
1267 posts
Posted on 6/19/13 at 1:48 pm to
SEC gets shut out of the BCS game--Ohio St. and Louisville will go undefeated.
Posted by bisonduck
Oregon City, OR
Member since Apr 2011
12977 posts
Posted on 6/19/13 at 1:54 pm to
quote:

What ya'll (you guys, dudes) don't get is that the SEC defenses have DEPTH. LSU and probably Bama too, have returning players on defense who played a lot last year. I think the 'inexperience' card is a major misnomer. Dude.


Tackles are tackles, dude, whether they were made by backups or starters. Kinda hard to argue that point.

Oregon rotates a ton on defense. Basically unit one and two are the same. Stanford and Oregon are deep on the defensive side of the ball. Our dline (including the hybrid standup DE/OLB) are all seniors as the ones but next year doesn't concern me because unit 2 is all sophmores and they rotate as much as the ones. We also have 3s pushing for playing time and with how we knock the snot out of opponents, they will get a lot of tackles.
Posted by Bmath
LA
Member since Aug 2010
18667 posts
Posted on 6/19/13 at 1:56 pm to
Without reading through the thread I can tell you that the top SEC defenses will be just fine.

While LSU lost a lot of starters, they have quality guys filling in that have seen significant playing time.

This year is different because they now lack experienced depth. However, we won't know until later in the season how much of a problem this will be.

Every year there are new players with question marks. By the end of the year we can't fathom how we replace some of them next year.

This is college football in the SEC. You recruit not to rebuild, but to reload.
Posted by Mootsman
Charlotte, NC
Member since Oct 2012
6024 posts
Posted on 6/19/13 at 1:58 pm to
The SEC had many guys leave for the draft? More so than any other conference. Of course we're going to have less returning tackelers as a %.

However this doesn't describe SC. We have a very young team on defense but it does pertain to the rest of the SEC.

This is like saying Kentucky basketball with be down because all of their 3 pt shooters left for the draft.
Posted by bisonduck
Oregon City, OR
Member since Apr 2011
12977 posts
Posted on 6/19/13 at 2:01 pm to
quote:

This is like saying Kentucky basketball with be down because all of their 3 pt shooters left for the draft


Hasn't Kentucky basketball regressed ?

Regression can be as simple as going from #5 statistically to #10. LSU in all probability will regress. It looks like similar results for many of the upper crust teams as a conference.
Posted by Bmath
LA
Member since Aug 2010
18667 posts
Posted on 6/19/13 at 2:02 pm to
I just don't get returning tackler as a metric.

LSU's leading tackler, Kevin Minter, had a break out year. Now he is gone.

The defense was fine in 2011 before his big year in 2012.

It just seems as a cheap way of judging how much teams have to replace.
Posted by Hogwall Jackson
Denver
Member since Feb 2013
5054 posts
Posted on 6/19/13 at 2:02 pm to
oregon has the #1 corner by an ESPN guy therefore #1 defense in the NCAA.
Posted by bisonduck
Oregon City, OR
Member since Apr 2011
12977 posts
Posted on 6/19/13 at 2:04 pm to
quote:

I just don't get returning tackler as a metric. LSU's leading tackler, Kevin Minter, had a break out year. Now he is gone. The defense was fine in 2011 before his big year in 2012. It just seems as a cheap way of judging how much teams have to replace.


Oregon lost its top two tacklers and still ranks #40 dude. You lost a lot more than just Minter. A LOT MORE.
Posted by scrooster
Resident Ethicist
Member since Jul 2012
37613 posts
Posted on 6/19/13 at 2:17 pm to
quote:

The Pac 12 posters here are terrible.


We finally agree on something ... and "terrible" does not do their adolescent trolling heinousness justice.
Posted by Bmath
LA
Member since Aug 2010
18667 posts
Posted on 6/19/13 at 2:17 pm to
quote:

Oregon lost its top two tacklers and still ranks #40 dude. You lost a lot more than just Minter. A LOT MORE.


Well gee golly. Thanks for pointing that out to me mister.

The biggest losses for LSU on D came at defensive end. The tackles coming in played significant snaps. They lost Minter, but still have another 100 tackle LB in Barrow. Tahj Jones is coming back from suspension, and there is an army of young LBs that saw significant snaps last year.

They lost Simon at CB, but the two Jalens played well last year. The backups coming in are even looking to push out Jalen Collins.

Losing Reid at Safety will hurt. However, the lights came on for Loston, and I expect him to have a great year. The other safety prospects look good, but I admit this is the one area with the most question marks.
This post was edited on 6/19/13 at 2:24 pm
Posted by engie
Member since Jan 2012
8953 posts
Posted on 6/19/13 at 2:25 pm to
Yeah -- this one won't be bumped during the season...
Posted by Indfanfromcol
LSU
Member since Jan 2011
14733 posts
Posted on 6/19/13 at 2:27 pm to
You say dude almost every other post. Are you 15?
Posted by bisonduck
Oregon City, OR
Member since Apr 2011
12977 posts
Posted on 6/19/13 at 2:34 pm to
quote:

Yeah -- this one won't be bumped during the season...


I am sure that it will be brought up out of context and with a chest thumping Neanderthal mentality. The analytics are interesting. They suggest that the conference will be deeper overall defensively with a little more parity and a little less top heaviness.
Posted by Bmath
LA
Member since Aug 2010
18667 posts
Posted on 6/19/13 at 2:44 pm to
quote:

analytics


They rank teams in order based on highest percentage of top rated tacklers.

These are lazy sports writer statistics. There is probably not a significant difference between many of these teams. But bi-golly 56% is higher than 55% so the team with 56% must be better.

I'm not saying they need to run an Anova with a post hoc test, but some of the shite they they run with in these articles is silly.
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