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re: Weather Channel Update - No Landfall, Tracking East, Weakened
Posted on 10/6/16 at 10:54 pm to skullopener
Posted on 10/6/16 at 10:54 pm to skullopener
quote:
So now that the track has shifted, should the decision be reversed? Honest Answer
I don't even know if it is possible at this point but the whole thing is going to look pretty foolish if the game could have been played.
There was nothing wrong with waiting to make a decision until tomorrow.
This post was edited on 10/6/16 at 10:57 pm
3
Posted on 10/6/16 at 10:57 pm to skullopener
quote:
They just repeated it again that the track has shifted east and wind velocities have been lowered
It will wobble back and forth slightly the entire time and the weakening is temporary as there is a double eye wall and as the outer eye wall basically squeezes the inner eye wall and absorbs it, winds will weaken and then once the eye wall recycling is complete, winds will increase again. As long as the eye does not completely make landfall and the hurricane continues to ride the gulf stream up the coast, the 'fuel' needed for it to reorganize and strengthen is readily available.
Here are the most recent spaghetti models:
Radar loop of hurricane. It also clearly shows the double eye wall:
11pm update from NHC showing projected path of storm, wind speed which is now 130mph and the central pressure of the storm which is 939mb.The pressure is usually a pretty good indicator of how strong a storm is. The lower the pressure, the stronger the storm. Increases in pressure can indicate a weakening storm, but when the eye is recycling the pressure usually increases only to decrease again once the process is complete. Pressure will rise and continue to do so once the eye is over land, colder waters, etc indicating a long term to permanent weakening.
Posted on 10/6/16 at 11:06 pm to Carolina_Girl
Well....
Posted on 10/6/16 at 11:09 pm to skullopener
What's your point?
Posted on 10/6/16 at 11:10 pm to bgator85
Making the decision when they did was the worst possible time. Once they waited last Wednesday they may as well have planned on a gametime decision because moving it was no longer an option. Making the decision on Thursday eliminated any possibility of playing
Posted on 10/6/16 at 11:10 pm to bgator85
quote:
There was nothing wrong with waiting to make a decision until tomorrow.
That wouldn't leave LSU a lot of time, IMO. If the date had been moved to possibly a Sunday or Monday situation, that wouldn't have been fair to the ticket holders. It's just a messed up situation all the way around. Err on the side of caution. Could you imagine the lawsuits if LSU traveled there and the storm was worse than it is....and tragic things happened?
Posted on 10/6/16 at 11:11 pm to MrAUTigers
quote:
that wouldn't have been fair to the ticket holders.
Posted on 10/6/16 at 11:13 pm to Carolina_Girl
It is predicted to weaken and it has already been downgraded to Cat 3.
I am not disagreeging with your explanation. And thank you for all that info.
I am not disagreeging with your explanation. And thank you for all that info.
Posted on 10/6/16 at 11:14 pm to GRTiger
quote:
that wouldn't have been fair to the ticket holders.
How would you feel if you lived in Tennessee? Much of the State is being evacuated, but your school may play on Sunday...or maybe Monday. We will have to wait and see. We will let you know hopefully 24 hours before game time. That should be enough time for you to make travel plans, right?
Posted on 10/6/16 at 11:15 pm to skullopener
quote:
it has already been downgraded to Cat 3.
This is false.
Posted on 10/6/16 at 11:15 pm to BarnHater
I can accurately predict that it ain't hitting BR
Posted on 10/6/16 at 11:20 pm to MrAUTigers
the windspeeds have dropped from 140 to 130...and trending downwards to 125 mph at which point it become a CAT 3
LINK
LINK
Posted on 10/6/16 at 11:21 pm to MrAUTigers
By the way, this hurricane was never supposed to make a full landfall in Florida. At most it was going to make a partial landfall near Jacksonville.
Inland Florida is going to just get tropical storm conditions, it's the coast and South Carolina up to the lowcountry (mainly due to last year's flood) that's the problem.
Inland Florida is going to just get tropical storm conditions, it's the coast and South Carolina up to the lowcountry (mainly due to last year's flood) that's the problem.
Posted on 10/6/16 at 11:21 pm to skullopener
I am watching the Weather Channel right now. They have it listed as.....
Cat 4.
Wind 130
Pressure 939mb
Moving NW 13 mph
ETA this is the 12 AM EST update.
ETA to the ETA your link has it listed as a Cat 4.
Cat 4.
Wind 130
Pressure 939mb
Moving NW 13 mph
ETA this is the 12 AM EST update.
ETA to the ETA your link has it listed as a Cat 4.
This post was edited on 10/6/16 at 11:29 pm
Posted on 10/6/16 at 11:24 pm to SECFan1995
quote:
By the way, this hurricane was never supposed to make a full landfall in Florida.
correct...that is what made it even more dangerous. The eye is staying over the Atlantic. It is just skirting the State. From looking at the map, wind/rain are going the entire width of the State
Posted on 10/6/16 at 11:28 pm to skullopener
Mcelwain has his weekend all planned out
Posted on 10/6/16 at 11:31 pm to MrAUTigers
quote:
ETA to the ETA your link has it listed as a Cat 4.
I know it does. Its barely a Cat 4, your Fav channel Weather Channel just said that as well.
Posted on 10/6/16 at 11:31 pm to skullopener
quote:
It is predicted to weaken and it has already been downgraded to Cat 3.
It is going thru the eye recycling phase. The winds generally do decrease during these phases but they also usually (but not always, of course) increase again afterwards. What worries me is that the pressure barely changed with this recycling so an increase in winds appears more likely than not.
Also, remember that even though sustained winds are that of a weak cat 4, gusts can be extremely more significant than that. Additionally, the development of tornados is a very real threat..they are usually EF0-EF1 but still destructive none-the-less.
It just makes me nervous that ppl are automatically discounting the severity of Matthew. Consider the fact that the decrease in winds and slight change in course happened over a 2hr time frame and also take into consideration that just as quickly as the winds weakened and the track changed to a slightly more beneficial path, it can also increase in wind speed and the track can change again in a manner that would mean complete devastation.
I certainly hope and pray that it does continue to lose strength and the track continues on a much more easterly path, but I'm not convinced that will be the case based on this thing's history and current inconsistencies as well.
This post was edited on 10/7/16 at 12:20 am
Posted on 10/6/16 at 11:32 pm to bgator85
quote:
There was nothing wrong with waiting to make a decision until tomorrow.
Except.. that doesn't help UF like this helps UF.
We all know the real reason behind it.
Posted on 10/6/16 at 11:34 pm to MrAUTigers
quote:
If the date had been moved to possibly a Sunday or Monday situation, that wouldn't have been fair to the ticket holders.
you mean.. like just about every other game that got cancelled besides the LSU-Florida game?
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