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re: SEC RPI after games of January 28th
Posted on 1/30/17 at 2:22 pm to Triple Daves
Posted on 1/30/17 at 2:22 pm to Triple Daves
Thanks for the info -- I have no idea what to expect out of the Bama and UGA games. I could see it going either way. Same with the @AU and @MSU games. It's so tough to get road wins in this conference
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Posted on 1/30/17 at 2:23 pm to GenesChin
quote:
If TN splits AU/MSU and runs table minus USCe/UK
Would give Tennessee an RPI of 36 and SOS of 14 according to RPIWizard. Would be very tough to keep out.
Vandy made it last year with a similar but worse resume which was followed up by a horrible loss in their first SECT game.
I think conference affiliation and conference tourney games are often times way overvalued.
Posted on 1/30/17 at 2:25 pm to BHMKyle
quote:Ah, my bad. I thought your 8 was just regular season.
My projection of 8 wins needed counts the SEC Tournament. So I guess your "6 could do the trick with a few wins in the SECT" means we are on the same page, despite you thinking we're way off in our assumptions.
Posted on 1/30/17 at 2:27 pm to TRUERockyTop
quote:
Thanks for the info -- I have no idea what to expect out of the Bama and UGA games. I could see it going either way. Same with the @AU and @MSU games. It's so tough to get road wins in this conference
Everybody outside of Florida, Kentucky, South Carolina, Missouri and LSU is probably a coin flip depending on how they play that day and where the game is.
Posted on 1/30/17 at 2:27 pm to Triple Daves
quote:
A nice added bonus this year is that the only total duds in the SECT will be LSU and Missouri, and one of them will eliminate the other.
So, most any other first round game will help your resume, not hurt it or do nothing for it like past years.
No I think, barring upsets, they both should be eliminated Day 1.
The SEC Tourney bracket shows that there are two games on the first day: 14 vs. 11 and also 12 vs. 13. So assuming Mizzou is #14 and LSU is #13, and assuming they both lose, then only the #11 and #12 teams in the SEC will see their SOS hurt.
This post was edited on 1/30/17 at 2:28 pm
Posted on 1/30/17 at 2:28 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
No I think, barring upsets, they both should be eliminated Day 1.
The SEC Tourney bracket shows that there are two games on the first day: 14 vs. 11 and also 12 vs. 13. So assuming Mizzou is #14 and LSU is #13, and assuming they both lose, then only the #11 and #12 teams in the SEC will see their SOS hurt.
For some reason I was thinking they played each other but I think you are right.
Even better for the rest of us.
Posted on 1/30/17 at 2:29 pm to JamalSanders
quote:Not what RPIforecast and RPIwizard (which are both pretty reliable) predict. 21-10 gives them a 55 RPI; 22-9, 46.
Auburn would be 20-10. Auburn's RPI is already 59. If we go 7-3 to finish the year we would be in the 30s RPI wise. Sitting precisely on the bubble. I think if we can get to 22 wins we will be in. Only thing is i don't see us getting to 22. More like 21 or 20 and a high seed in the NIT.
22-9 would put Auburn squarely on the bubble imo. 21-10 would probably be squarely out with a high seed in the NIT.
Alabama has a better shot because they'll have a similar RPI and a way better conference record (in this hypothetical). 13-5 Alabama wouldn't be left out.
Posted on 1/30/17 at 2:36 pm to volfan30
quote:Agreed, but it does suck to see teams from certain conferences get respect just because they're from that conference.
I think conference affiliation and conference tourney games are often times way overvalued.
Team A, 11-9 (4-4)
RPI: 41
SOS: 4
T50 Record: 2-7
T100 Record: 6-8
Team B, 15-6 (4-4)
RPI: 44
SOS: 74
T50 Record: 2-5
T100 Record: 2-6
Team C, 13-7 (3-5)
RPI: 49
SOS: 36
T50 Record: 2-5
T100 Record: 3-7
Team D, 12-8 (4-4)
RPI: 53
SOS: 30
T50 Record: 0-4
T100 Record: 5-7
Two of these teams are considered solidly in and two aren't, and based off blind resumes, that doesn't seem fair
This post was edited on 1/30/17 at 2:38 pm
Posted on 1/30/17 at 2:39 pm to GatorsGators
quote:
Alabama has a better shot because they'll have a similar RPI and a way better conference record (in this hypothetical).
Alabama's problem is this: They need to go 7-3 down the regular season stretch to put themselves in position for an NCAA Tournament spot. But 7-3 will make them 13-5 overall, which will probably be good enough for a Top 4 seed in the SEC Tournament. That means they get the Double-Bye, which is one less opportunity for a quality win in SEC Tournament play.
If they go 13-5 and then lose their first game in the SEC Tournament, they don't make the NCAA Tournament IMO.
Posted on 1/30/17 at 2:42 pm to BHMKyle
Yep, agree with that.
I think we have go get a Top 25/50 win regardless, meaning we have to win at Arky, at USC, UK or first round game.
Who knows. Odds aren't high but way better than it was a month ago.
I think we have go get a Top 25/50 win regardless, meaning we have to win at Arky, at USC, UK or first round game.
Who knows. Odds aren't high but way better than it was a month ago.
Posted on 1/30/17 at 3:50 pm to GatorsGators
quote:
Not what RPIforecast and RPIwizard (which are both pretty reliable) predict. 21-10 gives them a 55 RPI; 22-9, 46.
22-9 would put Auburn squarely on the bubble imo. 21-10 would probably be squarely out with a high seed in the NIT.
I agree. I think we need to be at 24 wins after the SECT to feel good about getting in. We just don't have the quality wins it takes to get the benefit of the doubt.
Posted on 1/30/17 at 4:24 pm to GenesChin
Its cool to see that teams need to beat us to add a great resume building win for them. Crazy how far Frank Martin has takin us in just 5 years
Posted on 1/30/17 at 4:29 pm to JamalSanders
quote:
I think if we can get to 22 wins we will be in.
We'd be a bubble team, more likely outside looking in
23 wins we'd be pretty securely in barring unfortunate circumstances w conf tournaments + other bubble teams
Posted on 1/30/17 at 5:46 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
Alabama's problem is this: They need to go 7-3 down the regular season stretch to put themselves in position for an NCAA Tournament spot. But 7-3 will make them 13-5 overall, which will probably be good enough for a Top 4 seed in the SEC Tournament. That means they get the Double-Bye, which is one less opportunity for a quality win in SEC Tournament play.
If they go 13-5 and then lose their first game in the SEC Tournament, they don't make the NCAA Tournament IMO.
Unless one of Alabama's 7 wins would, improbably, be Kentucky that's probably spot on.
On the positive side for Alabama, the double-bye would be great for Alabama.
At 13-5 in conference they really wouldn't benefit much from simply beating a 11 or 12 seed again in the tourney anyway.
That they would likely get the #5 seed with the advantage of extra rest would be about the best scenario they could prescribe.
All that said, I imagine they'll likely end up 11-7 or 12-6 anyway.
Posted on 1/30/17 at 11:15 pm to wm72
quote:
All that said, I imagine they'll likely end up 11-7 or 12-6 anyway.
With their remaining schedule they'd be lucky to go 10-8
Posted on 1/30/17 at 11:42 pm to GenesChin
quote:
With their remaining schedule they'd be lucky to go 10-8
They may well finish 10-6 but I'd consider that a bit on the unlucky side since 11-5 would simply mean winning all the games they'll be favored in.
Posted on 1/31/17 at 7:34 am to GenesChin
quote:
With their remaining schedule they'd be lucky to go 10-8
Lucky to finish 4-6?
@ Missouri, vs LSU, vs Auburn, vs Georgia, @ Texas A&M, @ Tennessee
It'd be the melt of the century not to win at least 3 of those games.
Posted on 1/31/17 at 10:07 am to Triple Daves
I can see 3-3 in those 6.
Posted on 1/31/17 at 10:17 am to JamalSanders
quote:
I can see 3-3 in those 6.
Sure, it's possible, but it would be a big time let down.
Basically, beat the 2 worst teams in the league and go 1-3 against everyone else (with 3 homes games).
Posted on 1/31/17 at 12:40 pm to Triple Daves
quote:
Sure, it's possible, but it would be a big time let down.
Basically, beat the 2 worst teams in the league and go 1-3 against everyone else (with 3 homes games).
I think you go 4-2 but 2-4 or 3-3 wouldn't be outrageous.
There is just so much parity in the middle of the league this year. It's pretty much UK, SCAR, and UF at the top, LSU and Mizzou at the bottom and the other 9 teams in the middle.
Next year the SEC looks like a 6 or 7 bid league. UK, Scar, UF, Arky, AU, Bama, UT, and State will all have realistic tourney expectations.
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