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re: SEC RPI after games of January 28th

Posted on 1/29/17 at 1:53 pm to
Posted by auburn32
Auburn
Member since Dec 2009
2167 posts
Posted on 1/29/17 at 1:53 pm to
As an outside mostly lurker, I don't think the post was made to troll Auburn. Triple Daves usually has pretty solid b-ball opinions/posts.
Posted by jsmoove
Member since Oct 2010
12627 posts
Posted on 1/29/17 at 2:07 pm to
I know this. For some reason, he didn't realize I was joking.
Posted by Triple Daves
ITP
Member since Sep 2016
5740 posts
Posted on 1/29/17 at 2:12 pm to
AHHHHHHHHH got ya smoove.

This board has warped my brain. I can't tell serious from non serious, mainly because of the number of mentally challenged here.

Cheers
Posted by jsmoove
Member since Oct 2010
12627 posts
Posted on 1/29/17 at 2:15 pm to
No biggie. Your alter account has been a shining light here.
Posted by wm72
Brooklyn
Member since Mar 2010
7798 posts
Posted on 1/29/17 at 2:16 pm to
quote:

This is not a great league, but this is not a terrible league. There are a bunch of NIT/Bubble type teams in the league, and only 2 really bad teams.


Yeah, the RPIs this year are a lot better and probably consistent overall with a league that could get 6 NCAA bids.

However, it seems that the league may be set up for the same dynamic as many recent seasons where the potential Bubble teams take turns going on runs and manage to knock each other down to NIT bids.



29. Arkansas
42. Tennessee
51. Georgia
56. Vanderbilt
59. Auburn
66. Alabama
70. Ole Miss
76. Texas A&M
111. Mississippi State


Three teams from at least the top six this group could finish strong and get NCAA bids.

However, I'd guess they'll pretty much split games against each other the rest of the way to the point where possibly only one and maybe two manages a NCAA bid.


This post was edited on 1/29/17 at 3:46 pm
Posted by Nukeese
Member since Nov 2016
1269 posts
Posted on 1/29/17 at 2:16 pm to
Calling others mentally challenged and falling for obvious bait isn't a good look Daves
Posted by Triple Daves
ITP
Member since Sep 2016
5740 posts
Posted on 1/29/17 at 2:16 pm to
I tell myself to forget it about once a week but then come crawling back like an addict in the alley
Posted by jsmoove
Member since Oct 2010
12627 posts
Posted on 1/29/17 at 2:22 pm to
quote:

Yeah, the RPIs this year are a lot better and probably overall consistent with a league that could get 6 NCAA bids.



Say what you want about Pearl's coaching, but he's a wizard at schedules and RPI.
Posted by wm72
Brooklyn
Member since Mar 2010
7798 posts
Posted on 1/29/17 at 2:37 pm to
quote:

Say what you want about Pearl's coaching, but he's a wizard at schedules and RPI.


Pearl's going to be fine. Auburn has some really good talent and the Wiley kid especially seems like he could be a real difference maker.

I think the league as a whole has smarter in OOC scheduling which is why you see so many teams that are just a few games above .500 not being RPI killers in the league like some recent seasons.

Posted by GenesChin
The Promise Land
Member since Feb 2012
37706 posts
Posted on 1/29/17 at 3:37 pm to
quote:

Say what you want about Pearl's coaching, but he's a wizard at schedules and RPI.


Unfortunately the NCAA is cleary trying to replace it in the future. RPI has some major flaws though

I liked one thought coming out of the meetings that margin of victory should be included but adjusted to something like actual Win Margin + 50. It rewards you for bigger win margins but makes it harder to benefit from huge score run ups


Posted by GenesChin
The Promise Land
Member since Feb 2012
37706 posts
Posted on 1/29/17 at 3:46 pm to
quote:

Auburn has some really good talent and the Wiley kid especially seems like he could be a real difference maker.


How good a coach Pearl is will be shown next year. We should return ~80% of our scoring and >75% of Minutes

Barring some weird injuries or fluke, Auburn should be a tournament team next year with the talent and experience
Posted by TheRaid
Currently Living in South Alabama
Member since Jan 2013
1304 posts
Posted on 1/30/17 at 9:08 am to
So, everyone fears playing LSU and Missouri because their RPI will go down even if they win by 30.
Posted by LanierSpots
Sarasota, Florida
Member since Sep 2010
61638 posts
Posted on 1/30/17 at 9:18 am to
quote:

How good a coach Pearl is will be shown next year. We should return ~80% of our scoring and >75% of Minutes

Barring some weird injuries or fluke, Auburn should be a tournament team next year with the talent and experience


He had better get the offense playing like a team and not a bunch of individuals. I know a lot of that is youth but we will still be young next season. Most of the time, our offense looks more like pick up ball that a D1 college team. They are just all good which covers it up a bit

We can talk about the defense later.
Posted by GenesChin
The Promise Land
Member since Feb 2012
37706 posts
Posted on 1/30/17 at 9:23 am to
quote:

know a lot of that is youth but we will still be young next season.


Part of it is guys not understanding the system perfectly plus not knowing their teammates in the system


Hope is year 2 they aren't thinking and just doing the system and trust their teammates who they played with for a year
Posted by BHMKyle
Birmingham, AL
Member since Feb 2013
5076 posts
Posted on 1/30/17 at 9:38 am to
quote:

This is not a great league, but this is not a terrible league.


12 teams *mathematically* still have a shot at making the NCAA Tournament heading into the month of February. I'd say that is quite an improvement from a couple of years ago. Look at Mississippi State. They are currently 12th in the league, yet still have an RPI at #110 and a record of 13-7. They'd have to win 9-10 games down the stretch... with only 11 to play (possibly more if they win in the SEC Tournament). But for the #12 team in the league to still technically have a shot at the NCAA is a huge step forward for the SEC.

Here is what I calculate the "Magic Number" to be for each team to receive an at-large bid in the Tournament. All teams have a minimum 11 game left to play, counting one game in the SEC Tournament:

TEAMS WITH A VERY GOOD SHOT:
2- Kentucky (#8 RPI)
3- Florida (#9)
5- South Carolina (#19)
6- Arkansas (#28)

TEAMS THAT COULD GO IF THEY GET HOT:
8- Tennessee (#42)
8- Georgia (#51)
8- Auburn (#58)

WOULD TAKE A MIRACLE:
9- Vanderbilt (#54)
9- Alabama (#64)
9- Ole Miss (#72)
9- Texas A&M (#76)
10- Mississippi State (#110)

Honestly it would take close to a miracle for any of those outside the Top 4 to go.

Tennessee is the hottest team in the league. A week ago, they barely had a shot. Now they have wins over Kentucky and Kansas State on their resume. Their problem is they only have a record of 11-9. I think they need to get to 19 wins to seal a bid.

Georgia has been sitting on the bubble for weeks. We survived a scare against Texas on Saturday to preserve our bubble status. However, let's face it, we don't have a single win this year over an opponent who is solidly in the Tournament right now. We really need a win over Kentucky or South Carolina to bolster our resume.

Auburn is a bit of a long shot, but with 14 wins under their belt and an RPI in the Top 60, they are certainly still capable of making a run. The win over TCU this weekend gives them a win over a team currently thought to be in the Big Dance, if not right on the bubble. I think they need 22 wins, which means 8 more. That's a tall order, but if they play like they did last weekend there is certainly a shot.

Posted by BHMKyle
Birmingham, AL
Member since Feb 2013
5076 posts
Posted on 1/30/17 at 9:42 am to
quote:

As an outside mostly lurker, I don't think the post was made to troll Auburn. Triple Daves usually has pretty solid b-ball opinions/posts.


Yeah, get over it folks. What difference does it make? Neither Auburn or Bama is in the Tournament right now, and no one tried to claim they were/weren't. Time to move on.
Posted by Triple Daves
ITP
Member since Sep 2016
5740 posts
Posted on 1/30/17 at 9:44 am to
quote:

BHMKyle


Agree with that overview Kyle.

The only bad teams in the league right now are Missouri and LSU, and the better players spread across the league make most of the league games much more entertaining.
Posted by scrooster
Resident Ethicist
Member since Jul 2012
37613 posts
Posted on 1/30/17 at 9:53 am to
Nicely done Kyle.

Posted by Triple Daves
ITP
Member since Sep 2016
5740 posts
Posted on 1/30/17 at 9:55 am to
Alabamas game at Arkansas this week is gigantic. If they somehow win there, then they are right back in the thick of the conversation.

Combine that with an Auburn win over Tennessee and Saturdays game in Tuscaloosa would be a big one. Auburn probably up to around 55 or so and Alabama up near 55-60.
This post was edited on 1/30/17 at 9:58 am
Posted by BHMKyle
Birmingham, AL
Member since Feb 2013
5076 posts
Posted on 1/30/17 at 9:57 am to
quote:

VOLS @ Auburn almost feels like a pseudo elimination game, very important for both clubs


Agree. Two huge games on Tuesday

As you said, loser of the UT-AU game is probably headed to the NIT or sitting at home in mid-March. Winner stays alive for at least another week.

Georgia needs 8 wins to lock up an NCAA birth. With 10 regular season games remaining, four of the 10 are against Kentucky, Florida, or South Carolina. So we're going to have to win at least one of those. First shot is Tuesday night in Rupp against a slumping Kentucky squad. A loss does not eliminate Georgia, but it does reduce our odds greatly.
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