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re: Looking for a true objective analysis (A&M at South Carolina)
Posted on 8/24/14 at 7:45 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
Posted on 8/24/14 at 7:45 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
quote:
Please put the following:
1. Keys to the game/Key matchups
2. How South Carolina can/will win
3. How A&M can/will win
4. Result and margin prediction
1 - The keys to the game for SCAR are to control the clock and convert on 3rd down. Try to keep it 3rd and short, but convert on 3rd down regardless. SCAR also needs to get pressure on A&M's young QB, take advantage of the homecrowd noise factor and force A&M to make mistakes. Don't get caught off guard if A&M comes out trying to establish a running game.
2 - SCAR will win if they outscore A&M.
3 - A&M will win if they outscore SCAR.
4 - SCAR by 10 or more.
1
Posted on 8/24/14 at 7:48 pm to scrooster
A&M has a puncher's chance to steal this. I think the team acquits itself nicely but inexperience will cause either a few turnovers or bad penalties at in opportune times.
This game will be closer than the line indicates.
This game will be closer than the line indicates.
Posted on 8/24/14 at 7:49 pm to scrooster
1. New QB vs. Williams-Brice
2. Run and run some more.
3. God rains fire down upon the USC sideline.
4. USC wins by 14+.
2. Run and run some more.
3. God rains fire down upon the USC sideline.
4. USC wins by 14+.
Posted on 8/24/14 at 7:56 pm to scrooster
quote:
Don't get caught off guard if A&M comes out trying to establish a running game
That's a great point right there. I'm pretty sure the backs are going to get much more work this season.
Tight Ends as well.
Posted on 8/24/14 at 8:13 pm to SammyTiger
quote:
Jeremy Hill
carried the ball the same # of times as mike davis last year (203).
Hill had 218 more yards, and 5 more touchdowns.
Posted on 8/24/14 at 8:13 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
1. Keys to the game/Key matchups
Turnovers (duh), 2nd half adjustments, and how polished each team is.
An edge in one of these categories and pushes in the other two will lead to victory for that team.
Match up wise, the USC WRs versus our DBs. I think A&M can and will stack the box and stuff the run - putting the game in the WRs hands so to speak. USCs WRs are good and our DBs are a mixed bag and very unproven.
2. How South Carolina can/will win
If USC can effectively play action pass and pass successfully in positive yardage situations they will win. They'll score at will and we wont be able to keep up.
3. How A&M can/will win
A Gamecock posted this and I think he is right:
Also, how productive our offense can be depends a lot on our success running the ball. It will be interesting to see if we can maintain a decent run game - the talent is there and it will take a huge load off Kenny.
Another potential path to victory:
We might have a shoot out if Spurrier lets off the gas and we somehow get clicking in the 2nd half - one of the maddening things about playing an air raid team, we're never out of it.
4. Result and margin prediction
Head says:
I don't see us clicking on offense in the 1st half and he lead will be too much to overcome. Garbage TDs result in a not as close as it looks 41-31 loss for A&M.
Heart:
60-21 Ags, playoffs here we come and welcome to the first true freshman Heisman winner Speedy Noil.
Turnovers (duh), 2nd half adjustments, and how polished each team is.
An edge in one of these categories and pushes in the other two will lead to victory for that team.
Match up wise, the USC WRs versus our DBs. I think A&M can and will stack the box and stuff the run - putting the game in the WRs hands so to speak. USCs WRs are good and our DBs are a mixed bag and very unproven.
2. How South Carolina can/will win
If USC can effectively play action pass and pass successfully in positive yardage situations they will win. They'll score at will and we wont be able to keep up.
3. How A&M can/will win
A Gamecock posted this and I think he is right:
quote:
Grabbing a 10-14 point lead before the half. Spurrier will probably panic and go away from the run more than how he game planned.
Also, how productive our offense can be depends a lot on our success running the ball. It will be interesting to see if we can maintain a decent run game - the talent is there and it will take a huge load off Kenny.
Another potential path to victory:
We might have a shoot out if Spurrier lets off the gas and we somehow get clicking in the 2nd half - one of the maddening things about playing an air raid team, we're never out of it.
4. Result and margin prediction
Head says:
I don't see us clicking on offense in the 1st half and he lead will be too much to overcome. Garbage TDs result in a not as close as it looks 41-31 loss for A&M.
Heart:
60-21 Ags, playoffs here we come and welcome to the first true freshman Heisman winner Speedy Noil.
Posted on 8/24/14 at 8:49 pm to scrooster
quote:
Don't get caught off guard if A&M comes out trying to establish a running game.
I sure hope not, SC's strength is their front seven while the secondary is a decided weakness on paper. No reason to play into their hands especially when the Air Raid is designed to largely take the opposing front seven out of the equation.
Make USC beat us by covering and tackling well in the secondary. We need to run more but not in this game.
Posted on 8/24/14 at 8:52 pm to Tridentds
quote:
Not really an analysis but a few thoughts.
Think A&M has a decent shot to pull off the upset. I like that Kenny Hill is starting the first game because he knows the offense quite a bit better with his experience last year. Much more of the offensive package is in. Will not be like Florida 2012.
SC has some inexperience on offense so they may misfire some. If our defense comes out looking like the number 75+ D in the nation then we are definitely in trouble. No pressure on SC QB and we are in for a tough day.
Need defensive stops. Will be genuinely surprised if Ags don't move the ball pretty well. SC just doesn't see many offenses like Sumlins.. A lot going on. Expecting Ags to score in the mid 20s but if we can get into the mid 30s we can win.
I think USC wins, but this game feels a lot like the 2004 OSU game. They were near the top-10, undefeated and expected to win by several scores with a strong O-line, running game and front seven. The problem: They had a poor secondary and we lit it up, got up something like 33-6 before coasting to a win.
If we can consistently get big plays and huge chunks of yardage through the air, we have a great shot.
Posted on 8/24/14 at 9:17 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
1. Keys to the game/Key matchups
Very simply, the A&M front 7 vs the USC O-line/Mike Davis. I believe this is one game where TOP will dictate the outcome. I know I've seen Aggies say this does not matter. In some games, it does not. However, watch USC against Clemson in some recent games. Spurrier puts a HUGE priority on controlling the clock. With a young qb and an offense predicated on rhythm for A&M, it can have a profound effect on their efficiency.
2. How South Carolina can/will win
Run. Run. Run. Tote the rock. 6 yards and a cloud of dust. Play action pass for large gains but everything based around the line of scrimmage. Most importantly control the clock.
3. How A&M can/will win
Come out guns a blazing, just like you did at Bama 2 years ago. Take the crowd out of it and make USC start to question themselves. That kind of offense has a psychological effect as much as a physical one. If A&M can march down the field on their first couple of drives it will make it an equal playing field. A&M is a momentum team. If you let them find their swagger, watch out. It can just as easily deflate, however. I think A&M does this by starting out with short passes to the flat and establishing their running backs.
4. Result and margin prediction
As others have said, there is really no way to know. Too many unknowns on both sides. Given home field and just knowing what I know about football and how the running game seems to be more reliable, I will take USC over A&M by 10. I do see quite a few points, something like 38-28.
Very simply, the A&M front 7 vs the USC O-line/Mike Davis. I believe this is one game where TOP will dictate the outcome. I know I've seen Aggies say this does not matter. In some games, it does not. However, watch USC against Clemson in some recent games. Spurrier puts a HUGE priority on controlling the clock. With a young qb and an offense predicated on rhythm for A&M, it can have a profound effect on their efficiency.
2. How South Carolina can/will win
Run. Run. Run. Tote the rock. 6 yards and a cloud of dust. Play action pass for large gains but everything based around the line of scrimmage. Most importantly control the clock.
3. How A&M can/will win
Come out guns a blazing, just like you did at Bama 2 years ago. Take the crowd out of it and make USC start to question themselves. That kind of offense has a psychological effect as much as a physical one. If A&M can march down the field on their first couple of drives it will make it an equal playing field. A&M is a momentum team. If you let them find their swagger, watch out. It can just as easily deflate, however. I think A&M does this by starting out with short passes to the flat and establishing their running backs.
4. Result and margin prediction
As others have said, there is really no way to know. Too many unknowns on both sides. Given home field and just knowing what I know about football and how the running game seems to be more reliable, I will take USC over A&M by 10. I do see quite a few points, something like 38-28.
This post was edited on 8/24/14 at 9:42 pm
Posted on 8/24/14 at 9:28 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
quote:
Please put the following:
1. Keys to the game/Key matchups
2. How South Carolina can/will win
3. How A&M can/will win
4. Result and margin prediction
1. The game is in Columbia, South Carolina. We have Steve Spurrier. His home record is:
2005: 5-2
2006: 3-4
2007: 4-3
2008: 5-2
2009: 6-1
2010: 6-1
2011: 6-1
2012: 7-0
2013: 7-0
2. The game is in Columbia, South Carolina. We have a better team. Oh yeah, and we have Steve Spurrier.
3.
4. South Carolina - 37 A&M - 17.
CLICK F*CKING CLACK
This post was edited on 8/24/14 at 9:29 pm
Posted on 8/24/14 at 9:32 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
1. Key to the game will be how the young guys / new faces on both teams defenses perform.
2. South Carolina wins if the front 4 can get a consistent pass rush to make life easier on the DBs.
3. A&M wins if they lead the turnover battle and Hill plays well enough to avoid too many three and outs.
4. I say A&M scores first and it is a tight game the first half. SC controls the clock and limits A&Ms number of plays in the second half. Gamecocks win 31-21.
2. South Carolina wins if the front 4 can get a consistent pass rush to make life easier on the DBs.
3. A&M wins if they lead the turnover battle and Hill plays well enough to avoid too many three and outs.
4. I say A&M scores first and it is a tight game the first half. SC controls the clock and limits A&Ms number of plays in the second half. Gamecocks win 31-21.
Posted on 8/24/14 at 9:42 pm to Black Magic
Until a&m shows they can tackle as good as their males can cheer, I gotta go w South Carolina by a lot.
Posted on 8/24/14 at 9:43 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
Whichever team has the fewest turnovers wins.
Posted on 8/24/14 at 9:44 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
A&M wins by 40.
Posted on 8/24/14 at 9:46 pm to TeLeFaWx
quote:
A&M wins by 40.
The most objective post so far IMO
Posted on 8/24/14 at 9:47 pm to Mizz-SEC
quote:
Weather Forecast For Columbia, SC Thursday, Aug 28 Sunny High: 96° Low: 72° CHANCE OF RAIN: 0% WIND: WNW at 4 mph
CHANCE OF SANDSTORM: 100%
Posted on 8/24/14 at 9:48 pm to Cockeee Don
Also, the heat will be a huge factor.
Posted on 8/24/14 at 10:26 pm to Tridentds
quote:
Tridentds
quote:
SC has some inexperience on offense
Where exactly is our offense inexperienced at. We have a top tier line, a qb that is proven to be capable, a big strong receiver in Roland, a blazing fast receiver in Byrd and a Heisman caliber rb in Davis. We have experienced players at ALL positions on offense, so that post makes no sense at all to me.
Posted on 8/24/14 at 10:46 pm to Mohican
quote:
Come out guns a blazing, just like you did at Bama 2 years ago. Take the crowd out of it and make USC start to question themselves. That kind of offense has a psychological effect as much as a physical one. If A&M can march down the field on their first couple of drives it will make it an equal playing field. A&M is a momentum team. If you let them find their swagger, watch out. It can just as easily deflate, however. I think A&M does this by starting out with short passes to the flat and establishing their running backs.
You're looking at the 1st Quarter of the 2012 Alabama game FAR too simplisticly. Let's recap:
Alabama's first drive - Lacey no gain, McCarron rush for 2 yards, incomplete pass, punt: 2 rushes for 2 yards, 1 incomplete pass
A&M's first drive - Manziel for 5, 6 yard pass to Swope, Manziel for 1 yard + facemask penalty, Malena for 3, Manziel for 29, 5 yard pass to Swope, Malena for 5, Malena for 3, Michael for 1 yard TD: 7 rushes for 47 yards, 2 passes for 11 yards, 1 penalty for 15 yards
Alabama's second drive - Lacy for 18, Lacy for 5, incomplete pass, interception returned for 16 yards - 2 rushes for 23 yards, 1 incomplete pass, 1 intercepted pass
A&M's second drive - pass to McNeal for 32 yards, Michael for -1, Michael for no gain, 10 yard TD pass to Swope - 2 passes for 42 yards and a TD, 2 rushes for a loss of 1
Alabama's third drive - Yeldon for -4, pass to Cooper for 5, incomplete pass, punt - 1 pass for 5 yards, 1 incomplete pass, 1 rush for a loss of 4
A&M's third drive - pass to Swope for 4, pass to Johnson for 5, Malena for 1, pass to Swope for 4, incomplete pass, Manziel for 32, Manziel for 7, pass to Kennedy for 5, Malena for 8, pass to Swope for -3, pass to Johnson for 8, Malena for 1, Michael for no gain, Michael for 1 and a TD. - 6 passes for 23 yards, 1 incomplete pass, 7 rushes for 50 yards and a TD. Bertolet missed PAT
Alabama had 2 plays run after that to end the first quarter (2 rushes for 8 yards).
Offensive Stats (1st Quarter)
Alabama: 7 rushes for 29 yards, 2-7 passing for 10 yards and 1 INT
Texas A&M: 16 rushes for 96 yards and 2 TD, 10-11 passing for 76 yards and 1 TD
Even with that performance, it still took everything A&M had, and more including an additional 2 turnovers and a stupid penalty at the end to hold on for the win
If A&M dominates the first quarter the way they did in the 2012 Alabama game, South Carolina will lose by 50.
This post was edited on 8/24/14 at 10:48 pm
Posted on 8/24/14 at 10:56 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
To add to my previous post, the 2014 defense is FAR deeper than the 2012 defense was.
A&M pretty much had a solid group of starters and that was it. Had any serious injury taken Damontre Moore, Sean Porter, Jonathan Stewart, Spencer Nealy, or Steven Terrell out for anything more than a quarter, it was all over.
Louisiana Tech was the only team in 2012 who exploited this, going for it on fourth down in every single drive beginning in the 2nd quarter after A&M had taken a 27-0 lead. Louisiana Tech ran 101 plays that game against a defense that was only 16 players deep due to injury and suspensions. They ran 11 total plays prior to the 2nd quarter if that tells you anything.
A&M pretty much had a solid group of starters and that was it. Had any serious injury taken Damontre Moore, Sean Porter, Jonathan Stewart, Spencer Nealy, or Steven Terrell out for anything more than a quarter, it was all over.
Louisiana Tech was the only team in 2012 who exploited this, going for it on fourth down in every single drive beginning in the 2nd quarter after A&M had taken a 27-0 lead. Louisiana Tech ran 101 plays that game against a defense that was only 16 players deep due to injury and suspensions. They ran 11 total plays prior to the 2nd quarter if that tells you anything.
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