re: Kiper & McShay - Not very accurate

i understand everybody's point, but what should sports networks and newspapers and broadcasters do if they shouldn't speculate? should they not speculate because they might get it wrong? should they just re-hash the draft order over and over, then just say that they don't know who will get drafted and they don't know what order they'll be drafted?

that's like saying that no one should fill out a march madness bracket because it is almost impossible to get right.

i think that the pundit predictions actually make the draft more enjoyable because they set a standard, albeit a largely incorrect one, of the draft according to player value and team needs. then, when they're right or wrong, we compare the reality to our expectations, which is what makes the draft results interesting to ponder over.

I think they will miss a lot this year. Its a weak draft class. Only a handful of elite players.

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Mock drafts are so stupid. I don't know why people are so obsessed with them.

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For the same reasons people are obsessed with preseason rankings, NCAA bracket projections, etc.

People are lonely.

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There is zero way they are making millions. They are making good coin, but they aren't making one million.

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Kiper makes over six figures with ESPN now, but it took over 20 years to get to that point. Like you said, he doesn't even come close to making a million a year. His network is an estimated $7M, but a lof that comes from his publications and book sales.

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Outside of five or maybe six players, the rest of the players are just good.

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I heard a GM say on NFL Network that three years from now, this draft may have the most starters in the draft's history. I have heard them say, for the last few months, that this is the deepest draft in decades.

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I have followed the draft for the last 20 years. Not saying it is the worst, but not close to the best.

Outside of five or maybe six players, the rest of the players are just good.

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What drafts would you say are better in recent memory?

Kiper is a tool and a joke when it comes to some players because he is influenced by players agents to project them higher than their actual talent.

He also shits on some players and teams for who they draft and when they draft them. Since the draft is an inaccurate science then he is left looking foolish from time to time.

With that said, I still have much admiration for Kiper because he was the first draft "guru" to make it on a national tv network. And he started with a notebook that he turned into his yearly draft magazine. I also think he deserves some credit for how huge the draft has become now

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Sounds like a weather man to me.

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Weather is actually predictable, certainly more predictable than what college player will be a boom or bust in the NFL.

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this and the fact that ESPN wants them to speak in absolutes. You don't get viewers by speaking realistically. You want some a-hole telling you that there is no way such and such will go in the first round. Then the a-hole watching can go to his friends and repeat and feel empowered.

In reality, there are no absolutes in football. That goes for recruiting, the game, the draft and so on. Too many variables to have absolutes, but ESPN wants someone to speak the gospel and viewers want that too.

Those guys are entertainment. They are not the pros. They are fed information by sources who have their own best interests in mind.

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Agreed.

At the risk of sounding like an apologist for McShay and Kiper (which I'm not), I'll offer the devil's advocate point -- they're projecting where a player is going to be drafted, not necessarily how good they're going to be on their respective teams. Granted, sometimes they get overboard, like when McShay went as far as saying he thought Gabbert would be a Pro Bowler.

If you listen to their podcast, they're actually pretty honest about how they're essentially making estimated guesses based on what they're told and what they're seeing. One of them - I believe it was Kiper - was pretty outspoken a few years ago about how he thought Tebow was a bad quarterback but would be picked much higher than he should've been, and that came to pass. The main problem, like you said, is that they work for a network that is now notorious for wanting its talking heads to speak in absolutes on a day to day basis, and Deadspin has done an extensive amount of coverage of this new ESPN First Take/Skip Bayless/debate culture that's overtaken ESPN.

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the draft is 32 teams drafting seven rounds' worth of players from hundreds of college football teams. 1 in 9.2 quintillion are great odds compared to predicting a perfect draft, mathematically. frankly, if the "experts"--i'm using that term loosely, mind you--are 25% correct, i'd say that's a respectable showing.

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The question is, on a yearly basis, does the guy getting paid to do this as a job significantly outperform you or I spending a few hours watching ball and a few hours crafting a bracket or mock draft.

Often, the answer is yes. Sometimes, it is no. Also, there are many times where the expert outperforms us, but only marginally, which again brings up the fact that he/she does this for a living, while we do it during commercials.