re: If the SEC adds Clemson and FSU, I think that'll be the end of SEC expansion

The SEC died with the last expansion.

Obviously I’m not a fan for one of the football freeloading schools. All I’m saying is when the money becomes to drive everything, like it is now, more schools will be asking “why am I splitting money with Vandy/Mizzou/Kentucky” and more tv execs will be saying “why am I paying more money for Vandy vs Mizzou?”

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On3's take

UNC and Virginia will get in before Clemson and FSU based on marketshare. I think it might be an expansion with all four. Let's just quit calling it the SEC, can we?

Call me in 2032 or thereabouts if you want to discuss adding ACC schools. They have a grant of rights that ties them up until 2036. OU and Texas managed to buy themselves out of the Big XII's grant of rights exactly one year early. I don't see any ACC schools doing better than that, unless there is some kind of coordinated move with the Big 10 to take in enough schools so that a vote to dissolve the ACC would succeed (I believe that would require at least a 2/3 majority, maybe more). I just don't see that happening.

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Call me in 2032 or thereabouts if you want to discuss adding ACC schools. They have a grant of rights that ties them up until 2036. OU and Texas managed to buy themselves out of the Big XII's grant of rights exactly one year early. I don't see any ACC schools doing better than that, unless there is some kind of coordinated move with the Big 10 to take in enough schools so that a vote to dissolve the ACC would succeed (I believe that would require at least a 2/3 majority, maybe more). I just don't see that happening.

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What I understand, is that the number of schools required would be eight.
8 schools leaving would break whatever clause forces a penalty to be paid.

So, who would be the 8 likely suspects? I'd say Clemson, Fla State, UNC, NC State, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Duke, Ga Tech, and Miami would all have some level of attractiveness to the SEC.
Big 10 (thinking expansion and creating their own subconference) would probably be interested in a bunch of those, and figure in Boston College and Syracuse, maybe Pitt. I don't know about academics, I am looking at regional matchups that would come into play.... they have Penn State and Rutgers. Syracuse, BC and Pitt would fit nicely with them, give them a viable Northeast pod.

If the Big 10 and SEC want to break the NCAA, the path to do so would be to absorb the bigger schools from the ACC, a couple more from the Pac 12, and then form their own bi-conference tournament- SEC vs Big 10. Take the powers, let a few more trickle in, and those 2 conferences work together to exclude NCAA control.

Let the NCAA run a tournament alongside that with teams like Boise and UCF, and see which one gets the better viewing numbers

That's the direction I see this going; anybody that's worth watching will join one of the 2 big conferences, and they will break away and negotiate their own deals. And to hell with Cinderella/mid-majors, that's the role Vanderbilt and Purdue etc will fill.

Despite the latest tweet going around is still imagine UNC is pick one for Sankey . Likely the only ACC school that has a true invite to both the SEC or BIG

They very well might get significant say in who they bring along . Within reason i.e. UVA or NC State

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It’s not contraction, it’s adding value by subtraction. A network will pay more for Georgia vs Clemson than Georgia vs Vanderbilt

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Why should we care what the networks want?

Why should their objectives be important to us?

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What I understand, is that the number of schools required would be eight.
8 schools leaving would break whatever clause forces a penalty to be paid.

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I looked at the ACC bylaws a while back and they are silent on the subject, so I think that some folks are making the logical leap that a bare majority could vote to dissolve the conference, or maybe that a bare majority could vote to terminate the contract. I don't think either of those are true. As to dissolution, I believe the state of incorporation is North Carolina and some kind of super majority is required to terminate the deal. And, from my recollection, I don't think the contract can be terminated by majority vote as I believe that an amendment requires all schools to sign off, but perhaps I'm wrong about that.

At any rate, I would take that claim that 8 schools is enough with a big grain of salt.

I only see the SEC adding max 4 teams to be at 20 by 2030. I Can see BIG expanding to 20 by 2026 and maybe 24 by 2030.

My RANKINGS for order conferences would add teams would be:

SEC: ND, UNC, FSU, Clemson, Miami, UVA, VTech, GTech, OKSt, NCSt, Louisville.... But additions are pairs. Like if the SEC gets FSU, Miami may just drop from the board; If they get UVA, they won't go for VTech, etc.

BIG: ND, Miami, FSU, Clemson, UNC, UVA, VTech, Oregon, Washington, Stanford, GTech, Pitt, Cal...


My PREDICTION for Realignment for 2026 season would be:

SEC: UNC and UVA as SEC locks.
BIG: Notre Dame and Miami as BIG locks.

FSU and Clemson being a complete toss up, but with FSU more likely to join the B10 and Clemson more likely to join the SEC. I think Both conferences desire either, and both Schools would love to be in either conference. See it going either way. I do think IF SEC gets FSU, Clemson, UNC, and UVA then they will be 100% done with expansion though. Those would be their 4 actual targets. Like they'd obviously accept ND, but that has about a 1% chance of happening.

Oregon and maybe an additional PAC school could join the BIG by the end of the decade, but they won't be in the realignment by 2026. VTech would be the next team up and fit in either conference after the 4 main ACC schools + ND leave.

Right now I lean towards

SEC: UNC and UVA
BIG: ND, Miami, FSU, and Clemson

and realignment ending until end of decade.