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re: Four teams control their own destiny in the SEC
Posted on 10/21/17 at 7:36 am to FightingTigers138
Posted on 10/21/17 at 7:36 am to FightingTigers138
quote:
If you read the beginning of the thread, he says the fourth team (LSU), will keep the sec out of the natty.
Here is what I focused on from OP's intro
Four teams control their own destiny in the SEC
Three of those teams would make the NCAA playoffs if they win out
Technically the NCAA does not have a playoff in football but does so in basketball, but since he said LSU it inferred LSU football.
So, correctly or incorrectly, I was viewing his OP as two part
#1 Winning the SEC (but he did not specifically include the CCG) after 13 games
#2 SEC in the CFP
Viewing the SEC rep it should be pretty obvious that win and you are in, even if you have 2 losses now. While we complain the SEC is still the best conference top to bottom but that does not settle well (especially with those yankees north of the Ohio Ocean).
To recap last bowl season:
SEC = 13 bowls and .462 record
B1G = 10 bowls and .300 record
Clearly .462 > .300 but the bigger point is it was the non B1G schools lowering the SEC's numbers.
Alabama did not get to beat Ohio State, as Clemson got that game
Cotton Bowl had a B1G vs a MACrifice team
In fact it seems you usually have 4 bowls with B1G vs SEC yet I think we had just 2
Tennessee 38 beat Nebraska 24
Florida 30 beat Iowa 03
That means the SEC was 2-0 head to head vs the B1G yet still they act like the B1G was better last year and kept trying to squeeze 2 teams into the 4 team CFP. I understand this because the B1G footprint has way more eyeballs which makes advertisers happy which makes broadcasters happy to put them in wether they deserve it or not.
Copule this with the B1G arrogance to think they are better than they are even tho modern history has shown only team in 14 has been able to win it, and even then they needed help from the refs to make it happen (Miami vs Ohio State game stands out). Conferences (current members) breaks down this way since 1998.
(5) = SEC via Alabama, Florida, LSU, Auburn, and Tennessee
(3) = ACC via Florida State, Miami, and Clemson
(2) = B12 via Texas and Oklahoma
(1) = B1G via Ohio State
(0) = PAC via Southern California (vacated)
Pretty sure this makes the SEC + ACC + B12 look like where CFB is really played while the money maker in the old days (Rose Bowl) has diddly and squat. yet here we are in another season being told how great the B1G is because that is where the money is.
Clearly if Alabama and Georgia win out the regular season, both winner and loser of the SEC CCG should be 2 of the 4 CFP teams but it will not happen. I think the committee (heavily stacked with B1G and PAC voters) would love to get 2 B1G teams in and 0 SEC teams in. It is what it is but if any 0, 1, or 2 loss team from the SEC wins the SEC CCG they should get in in my opinion.
I would love it if UK ran the table (as they are not even in the Top 25 right now) just to watch the committee lose their mind in how to keep them out of the CFP so they can get 2 B1G teams in. In the end it is about who controls the money and where as to who the committee "fits" into the narrative. Just look at the B12 getting bumped out for any team not named Oklahoma or Texas.
I hope I am wrong on all this, but history so far has proven me right.
Posted on 10/21/17 at 7:48 am to Cheese Grits
quote:
#1 Winning the SEC (but he did not specifically include the CCG) after 13 games
but I did include winning the SEC
RIGHT NOW, if Kentucky wins out and wins the SEC; they are assured a spot in the NCAA Playoff
I AM NOT predicting that this happens
obviously, if either Bama or UGA win out - they make the playoff
if LSU wins out, they could make the playoff; but they need a lot of other teams to lose a few games
a one loss Bama that misses the SEC CG has the best shot at making the playoff
hell, if KY wins out and goes to Atlanta; and no one else beats UGA - we could be the 1 loss team that makes the playoff
again - very unlikely
This post was edited on 10/21/17 at 7:54 am
Posted on 10/21/17 at 8:04 am to 1BIGTigerFan
If that happens ugtiger then absolutely
Posted on 10/21/17 at 8:04 am to dcbl
quote:
RIGHT NOW, if Kentucky wins out and wins the SEC; they are assured a spot in the NCAA Playoff
While I like your optimism, I do not share it. If UK runs the table from here on (low odds, but possible) I think they become Auburn 2004. Committee will find a way to exclude them to put a non SEC team in. While nobody doubts UK's national draw in basketball a UK football team in the CFP will not sell eyeballs outside of the SEC footprint. Washington State as a 1 loss would fare better and even then I think they find a way to keep the Cougars out.
On the flip side we saw them trying to get 3 B1G's in last season and you know they will push the Irish (even with no 13th game) because they are the Irish. ESPN seems happy to get an ACC team in, so pushing a 1 loss Clemson seems certain and if they can squeeze Miami in too, they will.
Posted on 10/21/17 at 8:22 am to Cheese Grits
This thread is about who controls their own destiny in the SEC. why are you trying to pretend that you know what your talking about? LSU has one loss in the SEC against a team that already has two losses in MS State. Thus, LSU can control its own destiny in the chase for the SEC championship.
Posted on 10/21/17 at 8:31 am to dcbl
People think they know everything but can’t figure out the fricking math. I love this place sometimes
Posted on 10/21/17 at 8:40 am to Hoops
quote:
People think they know everything but can’t figure out the fricking math. I love this place sometimes
I would love nothing more than to see LSU win out and go to Atlanta
UGA has played LSU in the SECCG 3 times and lost twice
I want to even that record
Posted on 10/21/17 at 9:11 am to dcbl
quote:
Four teams control their own destiny in the SEC
Alabama
Georgia
Kentucky
LSU
Texas A&M, having lost to Alabama, needs Alabama to lose twice (or at least once and force a tie-breaker scenario).
Auburn, having lost to LSU, needs LSU to lose at least one more SEC game (or have Alabama lose to them, beat LSU, and force a three-way tie that Auburn comes out on top somehow)
Everyone else has 2 or more losses in SEC play and would need a lot of help and an epic collapse by Alabama or Georgia.
Posted on 10/21/17 at 9:15 am to Manzielathon
quote:
Posted by Manzielathon on 10/20/17 at 6:35 pm to dcbl If LSU controls their own destiny, how does A&M not? Both have two losses, one in conference one out ... difference being we already played Alabama and UCLA > Troy
Didn't think through that one very well.
Posted on 10/21/17 at 9:25 am to dcbl
For such a simple topic there are a lot of people having a shite load of trouble keeping up with it.
This thread has been a fun read.
This thread has been a fun read.
This post was edited on 10/21/17 at 9:28 am
Posted on 10/21/17 at 9:28 am to IAmReality
quote:
No way in heck does a 2 loss team, whose 2 losses include a 30 point blowout and a loss to Troy make it into the playoffs.
I think they look at the huge late season wins over Bama and Georgia as evidence that the team is much improved and those early season losses will be looked at as growing pains for a new coach. But we're not going undefeated the rest of the way, so I'm not sure the point of this thread...
Posted on 10/21/17 at 9:33 am to 1BIGTigerFan
quote:
So I think they'd take a two loss SEC team.
hmmm...something similar happened around a decade ago.
Posted on 10/21/17 at 9:38 am to Manzielathon
quote:
If LSU controls their own destiny, how does A&M not?
Because TAM already lost to Bama. So in order for TAM to go to the SECCG Bama needs to lose twice.
On the other hand LSU only has 1 SEC lose. That lose was to Ms. State. Now Mississippi State has two loses in the SEC so LSU is ahead in the standings.
If LSU wins out they will in the west.
Posted on 10/21/17 at 9:40 am to dcbl
5 teams, you left out Kentucky
Posted on 10/21/17 at 9:44 am to Manzielathon
Aggie is dumb.
Water is wet.
Cheese is weird but good.
Water is wet.
Cheese is weird but good.
Posted on 10/21/17 at 9:55 am to Manzielathon
Math is so hard for Aggie
Posted on 10/21/17 at 10:04 am to dcbl
quote:Are insane? 1 loss Bama is probably behind 1 loss Clemson, solely due to Clemson being the defending champ. But even that's iffy. Bama is ahead of everyone else.
Depends on the.choices
Even a 1loss Bama isn't jumping:
a 1 loss Notre Dame
a 1 loss ACC Champ
an undefeated USF/UCF
a one loss B1G
a one loss PAC 12
a one loss Big 12
There are plenty of scenarios that keep a one or 2 loss SEC team out
Posted on 10/21/17 at 10:05 am to BreezyDawg
quote:
5 teams, you left out Kentucky
So
1 Alabama
2 Alabama's 2nd string
3 UGA
4 Kentucky
5 LSU
Sounds legit
This post was edited on 10/21/17 at 10:06 am
Posted on 10/21/17 at 10:15 am to dcbl
There are really only two teams that control their own destiny, bama and georgia. Everyone else, the committee controls their destiny SHOULD they win out.
Posted on 10/21/17 at 10:20 am to MikeAV8s
quote:
There are really only two teams that control their own destiny, bama and georgia. Everyone else, the committee controls their destiny SHOULD they win out.
no
a one loss Kentucky; whose only loss is by 1 point to Florida, would be in
especially if they beat Georgia and Alabama, but even if they beat Georgia and Auburn or LSU
again - I am not predicting this to happen
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