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Falcons: NFL Draft Thread
Posted on 4/16/15 at 1:01 pm
Posted on 4/16/15 at 1:01 pm
We're officially two weeks from the NFL Draft and thought it was time for everyone to start tossing out their analysis and mocks.
So who will our Falcons take at #8? Well I did an analysis of the last ten drafts and found some interesting patterns which might help figure it out.
Here's the last 10 years of top-8 draft picks:
2014:
1 Houston Texans Jadeveon Clowney DE South Carolina
2 St. Louis Rams Greg Robinson T Auburn
3 Jacksonville Jaguars Blake Bortles QB Central Florida
4 Buffalo Bills Sammy Watkins WR Clemson
5 Oakland Raiders Khalil Mack OLB Buffalo
6 Atlanta Falcons Jake Matthews T Texas A&M
7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Mike Evans WR Texas A&M
8 Cleveland Browns Justin Gilbert CB Oklahoma State
2013:
1 Kansas City Chiefs Eric Fisher OT Central Michigan
2 Jacksonville Jaguars Luke Joeckel OT Texas A&M
3 Miami Dolphins Dion Jordan DE Oregon
4 Philadelphia Eagles Lane Johnson OT Oklahoma
5 Detroit Lions Ezekiel Ansah DE Brigham Young
6 Cleveland Browns Barkevious Mingo OLB LSU
7 Arizona Cardinals Jonathan Cooper OG North Carolina
8 St. Louis Rams Tavon Austin WR West Virginia
2012:
1 Indianapolis Colts Andrew Luck QB Stanford
2 Washington Redskins Robert Griffin QB Baylor
3 Cleveland Browns Trent Richardson RB Alabama
4 Minnesota Vikings Matt Kalil T USC
5 Jacksonville Jaguars Justin Blackmon WR Oklahoma State
6 Dallas Cowboys Morris Claiborne CB LSU
7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Mark Barron DB Alabama
8 Miami Dolphins Ryan Tannehill QB Texas A&M
2011:
1 Carolina Panthers Cam Newton QB Auburn
2 Denver Broncos Von Miller LB Texas A&M
3 Buffalo Bills Marcell Dareus DT Alabama
4 Cincinnati Bengals A.J. Green WR Georgia
5 Arizona Cardinals Patrick Peterson DB LSU
6 Atlanta Falcons Julio Jones WR Alabama
7 San Francisco 49ers Aldon Smith LB Missouri
8 Tennessee Titans Jake Locker QB Washington
2010:
1 St. Louis Rams Sam Bradford QB Oklahoma
2 Detroit Lions Ndamukong Suh DT Nebraska
3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Gerald McCoy DT Oklahoma
4 Washington Redskins Trent Williams T Oklahoma
5 Kansas City Chiefs Eric Berry SS Tennessee
6 Seattle Seahawks Russell Okung T Oklahoma State
7 Cleveland Browns Joe Haden CB Florida
8 Oakland Raiders Rolando McClain MLB Alabama
2009:
1 Detroit Lions Matthew Stafford QB Georgia
2 St. Louis Rams Jason Smith T Baylor
3 Kansas City Chiefs Tyson Jackson DE Louisiana State
4 Seattle Seahawks Aaron Curry LB Wake Forest
5 New York Jets Mark Sanchez QB USC
6 Cincinnati Bengals Andre Smith T Alabama
7 Oakland Raiders Darrius Heyward-Bey WR Maryland
8 Jacksonville Jaguars Eugene Monroe T Virginia
2008:
1 Miami Dolphins Jake Long T Michigan
2 St. Louis Rams Chris Long DE Virginia
3 Atlanta Falcons Matt Ryan QB Boston College
4 Oakland Raiders Darren McFadden RB Arkansas
5 Kansas City Chiefs Glenn Dorsey DT Louisiana State
6 New York Jets Vernon Gholston LB Ohio State
7 New Orleans Saints Sedrick Ellis DT USC
8 Jacksonville Jaguars Derrick Harvey DE Florida
2007:
1 Oakland Raiders JaMarcus Russell QB Louisiana State
2 Detroit Lions Calvin Johnson WR Georgia Tech
3 Cleveland Browns Joe Thomas OT Wisconsin
4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Gaines Adams DE Clemson
5 Arizona Cardinals Levi Brown OT Penn State
6 Washington Redskins LaRon Landry SS Louisiana State
7 Minnesota Vikings Adrian Peterson RB Oklahoma
8 Atlanta Falcons Jamaal Anderson DE Arkansas
2006:
1 Houston Texans Mario Williams DE North Carolina State
2 New Orleans Saints Reggie Bush RB USC
3 Tennessee Titans Vince Young QB Texas
4 New York Jets D'Brickashaw Ferguson T Virginia
5 Green Bay Packers A.J. Hawk OLB Ohio State
6 San Francisco 49ers Vernon Davis TE Maryland
7 Oakland Raiders Michael Huff SS Texas
8 Buffalo Bills Donte Whitner SS Ohio State
2005:
1 San Francisco 49ers Alex Smith QB Utah
2 Miami Dolphins Ronnie Brown RB Auburn
3 Cleveland Browns Braylon Edwards WR Michigan
4 Chicago Bears Cedric Benson RB Texas
5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Cadillac Williams RB Auburn
6 Tennessee Titans Pacman Jones CB West Virginia
7 Minnesota Vikings Troy Williamson WR South Carolina
8 Arizona Cardinals Antrel Rolle DB Miami (Fla.)
Looking at pass rushers:
Zero DE/OLB taken: 3 - 2012, 2010, 2005
One DE/OLB taken: 1 - 2009
Two DE/OLB taken: 6 - 2014, 2013, 2011, 2008, 2007, 2006
Three or more DE/OLB taken: 0
So as you can see, in the last 10 years, not one time has there been more than 2 pass rushers taken in the first 8 picks.
Other than 2011 and 2005, virtually every year has had at least 2 OT's drafted in top 8. 2011 still only had 2 pass rushers because it was overloaded with offensive skill position players and a DT and DB. 2005 had 6 offensive skill position players and 2 DB's, and zero OL or DE/OLB's, which is crazy.
Other than 2013 and 2010, there has been no less than 2 offensive skill position players taken in the top 8. And in several there were 3, 4, and even 6 offensive skill position players taken. 2013 was overloaded with OT's and 2010 was overloaded with DB's.
7 of the 10 years at least one DB was taken in the top 8, and in fact, 4 of those 7 took 2 DB's.
With these stats, and taking in to consideration who has signed whom in free agency this off-season, it's a pretty safe bet that the top 8 will consist of this mix:
1-2 QB's, 1-2 WR's, 1-2 DE/OLB's, 1-2 DT's, 1-2 OL's, and 1-2 DB's.
I really don't see a RB getting taken in the top-8 anymore. There's only been 1 taken in the last 6 years and that was Trent Richardson, which hasn't worked out too well. Darren McFadden was taken 7 years ago and that hasn't worked out too well either.
So who will our Falcons take at #8? Well I did an analysis of the last ten drafts and found some interesting patterns which might help figure it out.
Here's the last 10 years of top-8 draft picks:
2014:
1 Houston Texans Jadeveon Clowney DE South Carolina
2 St. Louis Rams Greg Robinson T Auburn
3 Jacksonville Jaguars Blake Bortles QB Central Florida
4 Buffalo Bills Sammy Watkins WR Clemson
5 Oakland Raiders Khalil Mack OLB Buffalo
6 Atlanta Falcons Jake Matthews T Texas A&M
7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Mike Evans WR Texas A&M
8 Cleveland Browns Justin Gilbert CB Oklahoma State
2013:
1 Kansas City Chiefs Eric Fisher OT Central Michigan
2 Jacksonville Jaguars Luke Joeckel OT Texas A&M
3 Miami Dolphins Dion Jordan DE Oregon
4 Philadelphia Eagles Lane Johnson OT Oklahoma
5 Detroit Lions Ezekiel Ansah DE Brigham Young
6 Cleveland Browns Barkevious Mingo OLB LSU
7 Arizona Cardinals Jonathan Cooper OG North Carolina
8 St. Louis Rams Tavon Austin WR West Virginia
2012:
1 Indianapolis Colts Andrew Luck QB Stanford
2 Washington Redskins Robert Griffin QB Baylor
3 Cleveland Browns Trent Richardson RB Alabama
4 Minnesota Vikings Matt Kalil T USC
5 Jacksonville Jaguars Justin Blackmon WR Oklahoma State
6 Dallas Cowboys Morris Claiborne CB LSU
7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Mark Barron DB Alabama
8 Miami Dolphins Ryan Tannehill QB Texas A&M
2011:
1 Carolina Panthers Cam Newton QB Auburn
2 Denver Broncos Von Miller LB Texas A&M
3 Buffalo Bills Marcell Dareus DT Alabama
4 Cincinnati Bengals A.J. Green WR Georgia
5 Arizona Cardinals Patrick Peterson DB LSU
6 Atlanta Falcons Julio Jones WR Alabama
7 San Francisco 49ers Aldon Smith LB Missouri
8 Tennessee Titans Jake Locker QB Washington
2010:
1 St. Louis Rams Sam Bradford QB Oklahoma
2 Detroit Lions Ndamukong Suh DT Nebraska
3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Gerald McCoy DT Oklahoma
4 Washington Redskins Trent Williams T Oklahoma
5 Kansas City Chiefs Eric Berry SS Tennessee
6 Seattle Seahawks Russell Okung T Oklahoma State
7 Cleveland Browns Joe Haden CB Florida
8 Oakland Raiders Rolando McClain MLB Alabama
2009:
1 Detroit Lions Matthew Stafford QB Georgia
2 St. Louis Rams Jason Smith T Baylor
3 Kansas City Chiefs Tyson Jackson DE Louisiana State
4 Seattle Seahawks Aaron Curry LB Wake Forest
5 New York Jets Mark Sanchez QB USC
6 Cincinnati Bengals Andre Smith T Alabama
7 Oakland Raiders Darrius Heyward-Bey WR Maryland
8 Jacksonville Jaguars Eugene Monroe T Virginia
2008:
1 Miami Dolphins Jake Long T Michigan
2 St. Louis Rams Chris Long DE Virginia
3 Atlanta Falcons Matt Ryan QB Boston College
4 Oakland Raiders Darren McFadden RB Arkansas
5 Kansas City Chiefs Glenn Dorsey DT Louisiana State
6 New York Jets Vernon Gholston LB Ohio State
7 New Orleans Saints Sedrick Ellis DT USC
8 Jacksonville Jaguars Derrick Harvey DE Florida
2007:
1 Oakland Raiders JaMarcus Russell QB Louisiana State
2 Detroit Lions Calvin Johnson WR Georgia Tech
3 Cleveland Browns Joe Thomas OT Wisconsin
4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Gaines Adams DE Clemson
5 Arizona Cardinals Levi Brown OT Penn State
6 Washington Redskins LaRon Landry SS Louisiana State
7 Minnesota Vikings Adrian Peterson RB Oklahoma
8 Atlanta Falcons Jamaal Anderson DE Arkansas
2006:
1 Houston Texans Mario Williams DE North Carolina State
2 New Orleans Saints Reggie Bush RB USC
3 Tennessee Titans Vince Young QB Texas
4 New York Jets D'Brickashaw Ferguson T Virginia
5 Green Bay Packers A.J. Hawk OLB Ohio State
6 San Francisco 49ers Vernon Davis TE Maryland
7 Oakland Raiders Michael Huff SS Texas
8 Buffalo Bills Donte Whitner SS Ohio State
2005:
1 San Francisco 49ers Alex Smith QB Utah
2 Miami Dolphins Ronnie Brown RB Auburn
3 Cleveland Browns Braylon Edwards WR Michigan
4 Chicago Bears Cedric Benson RB Texas
5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Cadillac Williams RB Auburn
6 Tennessee Titans Pacman Jones CB West Virginia
7 Minnesota Vikings Troy Williamson WR South Carolina
8 Arizona Cardinals Antrel Rolle DB Miami (Fla.)
Looking at pass rushers:
Zero DE/OLB taken: 3 - 2012, 2010, 2005
One DE/OLB taken: 1 - 2009
Two DE/OLB taken: 6 - 2014, 2013, 2011, 2008, 2007, 2006
Three or more DE/OLB taken: 0
So as you can see, in the last 10 years, not one time has there been more than 2 pass rushers taken in the first 8 picks.
Other than 2011 and 2005, virtually every year has had at least 2 OT's drafted in top 8. 2011 still only had 2 pass rushers because it was overloaded with offensive skill position players and a DT and DB. 2005 had 6 offensive skill position players and 2 DB's, and zero OL or DE/OLB's, which is crazy.
Other than 2013 and 2010, there has been no less than 2 offensive skill position players taken in the top 8. And in several there were 3, 4, and even 6 offensive skill position players taken. 2013 was overloaded with OT's and 2010 was overloaded with DB's.
7 of the 10 years at least one DB was taken in the top 8, and in fact, 4 of those 7 took 2 DB's.
With these stats, and taking in to consideration who has signed whom in free agency this off-season, it's a pretty safe bet that the top 8 will consist of this mix:
1-2 QB's, 1-2 WR's, 1-2 DE/OLB's, 1-2 DT's, 1-2 OL's, and 1-2 DB's.
I really don't see a RB getting taken in the top-8 anymore. There's only been 1 taken in the last 6 years and that was Trent Richardson, which hasn't worked out too well. Darren McFadden was taken 7 years ago and that hasn't worked out too well either.
This post was edited on 4/16/15 at 1:06 pm
4
Posted on 4/16/15 at 1:02 pm to BeefDawg
So how about the Falcon's needs?
A couple big factors to take into consideration is that Quinn has moved us back to a 4-3 base defense and Shannahan runs a zone-blocking scheme for his OL's, which is a big change for us. So lets examine position by position and assess weaknesses.
Pass Rush:
DE: O'Brien Schofield, Adrian Clayborn, Biermann, Matthews, Maponga, and Goodman
OLB: Brooks Reed, Justin Durant, Shembo, Stupar
- I'd call DE a very weak position and a top priority. OLB is pretty solid with the Reed and Durant pickups. Reed is best friend's with JJ Watt and has been training with him for two straight seasons. Hopefully it has helped him. And Durant was on his way to a probowl season at OLB last year until he got injured. He is a good replacement for Spoon. Adrian Clayborn is apparently a replacement for Osi. Who knows what he'll bring other than DE depth.
DT: Soliai, Babineaux, Jackson, Hageman
- Soliai is a pure 3-4 NT, but we're stuck with his big contract for a while. He played like shite last year and so did Tyson Jackson. Babs was his usual inconsistent self, really good at some times and really average at others. And Hageman came on strong in the last 3 games. He's the future at DT for us and he's going to be a good one. The guy might have a 2-cent head, but he's an athletic freak of nature and will be good once he gets it. We can live for a while with this 4-man rotation inside though.
ILB: Worrilow, Bartu, Bradford, and Spruill
- Another weak position. Worrilow gets a lot of tackles, but he actually graded out horrible by PFF. And Bartu kept moving from OLB to ILB and back and forth all season. Spruill is coming off an ACL tear and Bradford is simply depth. They may move Shembo inside to help here but not sure about that.
Secondary:
CB: Trufant, Alford, Mabin, Allen, and Bishop.
- There's also mention that Quinn wants to move Dez Southward to CB and make Alford the Nickel. This would be fine by me since Southward is tall and can run a 4.3x 40. Maybe Quinn wants to turn him into a Richard Sherman type CB. Bishop is 6'1 210 also and can run, so he has potential as well. We're set at CB IMO.
SS: Moore, Ishmael
- And that's it. And Willie Mo is always injured. Ishmael stepped up and played great here last year though too.
FS: Godfrey, Southward
- For some reason, we didn't re-sign Lowery even though he was by far our best safety. This is obviously a priority position of need. Especially if Southward might move to CB.
Offensive Line: Matthews, Baker, Schraeder, Stone, Hawley, Asamoah, Holmes, Konz, Person, Gunn
- Matthews is obviously our LT and Schraeder actually graded out as a top-5 RT last year. Asamoah is the RG and Stone graded out strong at C when Hawley went down. So that leaves Baker, Konz, Person, Gunn, and Holmes as depth, which is scary. Baker I believe might be released after June 1st. If not, he may fill the void at LG where Blalock use to be. But if that's not the case, then I suspect OG is a high priority too. We need to lock down LG to complete this line.
- Good news on OL, however, is that virtually all of our guys have played in a zone-blocking system before. In fact, most of them did in college and know it quite well.
RB: Freeman and Smith
- That's it. Seriously, that's our RB's. And Smith is coming off a broken leg. If this doesn't scream "need" then I don't know what does. Now this said, with the switch to a zone-blocking scheme, this may not necessarily be something we draft in our first 4 picks. Look what Shannahan did with Alfred Morris. But, this is absolutely a priority. We may even draft two RB's or look for another one in FA at some point.
WR: Julio, Roddy, Hester, Hankerson, Weems, Martino, and Reedy
- They picked up Hankerson to replace Davis, and they are really high on Reedy to replace Douglas in the slot. We're pretty set at WR, especially after who we picked up in FA at TE. Our receiving corps looks good. WR isn't a priority, but we may pick up one in the late rounds.
TE: Toilolo, Moeaki, and Tamme
- We're set here for a while. Clearly we don't plan to draft a TE now.
So, with all this, here is what appears to be our needs in order of importance:
RB, DE, OG, S, ILB, DT, WR
No way though do we draft a RB at #8 when there's four pass rushers with top-10 draft grades. Especially not since the trend has been to take a RB in mid rounds find success. Which is exactly what Shannahan has already proven he can do.
As a result, I am very confident we go pass rusher at #8, with a particular eye on Vic Beasley. Williams is more a 4-3 DT or 3-4 DE and will certainly be gone, but I wouldn't necessarily classify him as a pass rusher. Fowler, who is a traditional 4-3 DE, will likely be gone too. But as my earlier analysis shows, not once in the past 10 years have more than two pass rushers been taken in the top-8. And if this holds true again, then Vic Beasley should still be there for us at #8.
A couple big factors to take into consideration is that Quinn has moved us back to a 4-3 base defense and Shannahan runs a zone-blocking scheme for his OL's, which is a big change for us. So lets examine position by position and assess weaknesses.
Pass Rush:
DE: O'Brien Schofield, Adrian Clayborn, Biermann, Matthews, Maponga, and Goodman
OLB: Brooks Reed, Justin Durant, Shembo, Stupar
- I'd call DE a very weak position and a top priority. OLB is pretty solid with the Reed and Durant pickups. Reed is best friend's with JJ Watt and has been training with him for two straight seasons. Hopefully it has helped him. And Durant was on his way to a probowl season at OLB last year until he got injured. He is a good replacement for Spoon. Adrian Clayborn is apparently a replacement for Osi. Who knows what he'll bring other than DE depth.
DT: Soliai, Babineaux, Jackson, Hageman
- Soliai is a pure 3-4 NT, but we're stuck with his big contract for a while. He played like shite last year and so did Tyson Jackson. Babs was his usual inconsistent self, really good at some times and really average at others. And Hageman came on strong in the last 3 games. He's the future at DT for us and he's going to be a good one. The guy might have a 2-cent head, but he's an athletic freak of nature and will be good once he gets it. We can live for a while with this 4-man rotation inside though.
ILB: Worrilow, Bartu, Bradford, and Spruill
- Another weak position. Worrilow gets a lot of tackles, but he actually graded out horrible by PFF. And Bartu kept moving from OLB to ILB and back and forth all season. Spruill is coming off an ACL tear and Bradford is simply depth. They may move Shembo inside to help here but not sure about that.
Secondary:
CB: Trufant, Alford, Mabin, Allen, and Bishop.
- There's also mention that Quinn wants to move Dez Southward to CB and make Alford the Nickel. This would be fine by me since Southward is tall and can run a 4.3x 40. Maybe Quinn wants to turn him into a Richard Sherman type CB. Bishop is 6'1 210 also and can run, so he has potential as well. We're set at CB IMO.
SS: Moore, Ishmael
- And that's it. And Willie Mo is always injured. Ishmael stepped up and played great here last year though too.
FS: Godfrey, Southward
- For some reason, we didn't re-sign Lowery even though he was by far our best safety. This is obviously a priority position of need. Especially if Southward might move to CB.
Offensive Line: Matthews, Baker, Schraeder, Stone, Hawley, Asamoah, Holmes, Konz, Person, Gunn
- Matthews is obviously our LT and Schraeder actually graded out as a top-5 RT last year. Asamoah is the RG and Stone graded out strong at C when Hawley went down. So that leaves Baker, Konz, Person, Gunn, and Holmes as depth, which is scary. Baker I believe might be released after June 1st. If not, he may fill the void at LG where Blalock use to be. But if that's not the case, then I suspect OG is a high priority too. We need to lock down LG to complete this line.
- Good news on OL, however, is that virtually all of our guys have played in a zone-blocking system before. In fact, most of them did in college and know it quite well.
RB: Freeman and Smith
- That's it. Seriously, that's our RB's. And Smith is coming off a broken leg. If this doesn't scream "need" then I don't know what does. Now this said, with the switch to a zone-blocking scheme, this may not necessarily be something we draft in our first 4 picks. Look what Shannahan did with Alfred Morris. But, this is absolutely a priority. We may even draft two RB's or look for another one in FA at some point.
WR: Julio, Roddy, Hester, Hankerson, Weems, Martino, and Reedy
- They picked up Hankerson to replace Davis, and they are really high on Reedy to replace Douglas in the slot. We're pretty set at WR, especially after who we picked up in FA at TE. Our receiving corps looks good. WR isn't a priority, but we may pick up one in the late rounds.
TE: Toilolo, Moeaki, and Tamme
- We're set here for a while. Clearly we don't plan to draft a TE now.
So, with all this, here is what appears to be our needs in order of importance:
RB, DE, OG, S, ILB, DT, WR
No way though do we draft a RB at #8 when there's four pass rushers with top-10 draft grades. Especially not since the trend has been to take a RB in mid rounds find success. Which is exactly what Shannahan has already proven he can do.
As a result, I am very confident we go pass rusher at #8, with a particular eye on Vic Beasley. Williams is more a 4-3 DT or 3-4 DE and will certainly be gone, but I wouldn't necessarily classify him as a pass rusher. Fowler, who is a traditional 4-3 DE, will likely be gone too. But as my earlier analysis shows, not once in the past 10 years have more than two pass rushers been taken in the top-8. And if this holds true again, then Vic Beasley should still be there for us at #8.
This post was edited on 4/16/15 at 1:11 pm
Posted on 4/16/15 at 1:27 pm to BeefDawg
Thanks for the breakdown 
Posted on 4/16/15 at 1:45 pm to BeefDawg
Nice Work
Definitely need a pass rusher first round. I like Beasley there. Georgia kid, would probably love to play for ATL. I like Randy Gregory too although the front office might not since he got caught smoking weed. Dante Fowler if he's there is a no brainer but I don't think he falls to us.
Hopefully Dimitroff and Co can prove that they aren't completely inept at drafting this year.
Definitely need a pass rusher first round. I like Beasley there. Georgia kid, would probably love to play for ATL. I like Randy Gregory too although the front office might not since he got caught smoking weed. Dante Fowler if he's there is a no brainer but I don't think he falls to us.
Hopefully Dimitroff and Co can prove that they aren't completely inept at drafting this year.
Posted on 4/16/15 at 1:46 pm to BeefDawg
Beasley, Ray or Dupree. I'd prefer we trade down for picks and get Dupree later.
Posted on 4/16/15 at 2:07 pm to BeefDawg
Good post... 
Posted on 4/16/15 at 2:10 pm to Porter Osborne Jr
quote:
Beasley, Ray or Dupree. I'd prefer we trade down for picks and get Dupree later.
^^^^
this
Posted on 4/16/15 at 2:48 pm to BeefDawg
Good lord - now that is an informative post.
I do think this year will be skewed towards pass rushers though. The Falcons would do well to grab one.
I do think this year will be skewed towards pass rushers though. The Falcons would do well to grab one.
Posted on 4/16/15 at 2:48 pm to bulldawger
Pass rushers will fall off the board before 8. Fowler Jr, Beasley, Gregory and Ray could all be off the board by the time the Falcons pick and in that scenario we need to trade back. Ray also is not a good fit. If Gregory is there the Falcons should take him.
Posted on 4/16/15 at 2:54 pm to BeefDawg
The 2011 Draft is just filthy. Not shown:
9) Tyron Smith
11) JJ Watt
14) Robert Quinn
15) Mike Pouncey
Round 2: Randall Cobb
Round 3: Justin Houston, DeMarco Murray
Round 4: Julius Thomas
Round 5: Richard Sherman
9) Tyron Smith
11) JJ Watt
14) Robert Quinn
15) Mike Pouncey
Round 2: Randall Cobb
Round 3: Justin Houston, DeMarco Murray
Round 4: Julius Thomas
Round 5: Richard Sherman
Posted on 4/16/15 at 2:58 pm to Prettyboy Floyd
The likelihood of 4 pass rushers being gone by pick #8 is beyond slim.
Again, in the past 10 years, not a single time have more than 2 pass rushers been drafted in the top-8.
Someone will reach for an OT and DB. And Kevin White and Amari Cooper are almost certainly going top-8 too. At least one of them for sure.
I think there's no question what so ever that one of the top-4 pass rushers will still be there at 8.
Even if just 3 go before us, it'll destroy a 10-year trend, and I just don't see that happening.
Again, in the past 10 years, not a single time have more than 2 pass rushers been drafted in the top-8.
Someone will reach for an OT and DB. And Kevin White and Amari Cooper are almost certainly going top-8 too. At least one of them for sure.
I think there's no question what so ever that one of the top-4 pass rushers will still be there at 8.
Even if just 3 go before us, it'll destroy a 10-year trend, and I just don't see that happening.
Posted on 4/16/15 at 3:25 pm to BeefDawg
Beef bringin' the NFL dope... Any gut feeling who the Falcons end up with??
Posted on 4/16/15 at 3:46 pm to BeefDawg
Im not big on Beasleys size. Id rather trade back with Fowler not available
Posted on 4/17/15 at 12:30 am to Chef Leppard
The 43 under is not a typical 43 defense. It is pretty much a hybrid 34.
-The left end plays the 5 technique, just like a end in the 34 defense. This is where Tyson Jackson made all his money in Kansas City.
-You then have the 1 tech, which is basically a 34 NT, and hey, thats exactly what Soliai is, and hopefully Dan Quinn wont play him wrong, like Nolan did.
-Next is the 3 tech. Ive read that it is the most important position on the field, because this player must get pressure on the guard for the defense to work. This is the spot that Brandon Mebane has dominated for the past half decade.
-The right end is called the LEO. He is a hybrid. He will play with his hand in the dirt at the 9 tech, or he will stand up and rush, like a 34 OLB. Atlanta has none, and one is needed.
-We can get to the SAM backer next. This is a hybrid type of role as well. He is known as the left standing pass rusher, but he also needs to be able to drop in coverage. This is the reason that Bruce Irvin has not really succeeded in Seattle. He is awful in coverage.
-The WILL backer can honestly be the weakest link in this defense. Since the formation is mostly a 52, he needs to be able to be a sure tackler, but his wont have to be in coverage as much as a SAM.
-I believe that the MIKE is the second most important position of this defense. He is the last line of defense. He has to diagnose, and hit holes quickly, because if he doesnt, then big gains will be found in the running game. Also, the SAM will rusht the passer a lot, and the MIKE must be able to cover the tight end, or other backs coming out.
Bottom line, the 43 Under is basically a 52 defense with some variations. We must have LBs that can cover, because our corners will be on islands for the most part. There will be a safety over the top, but the middle of the field could potentially be open.
-The left end plays the 5 technique, just like a end in the 34 defense. This is where Tyson Jackson made all his money in Kansas City.
-You then have the 1 tech, which is basically a 34 NT, and hey, thats exactly what Soliai is, and hopefully Dan Quinn wont play him wrong, like Nolan did.
-Next is the 3 tech. Ive read that it is the most important position on the field, because this player must get pressure on the guard for the defense to work. This is the spot that Brandon Mebane has dominated for the past half decade.
-The right end is called the LEO. He is a hybrid. He will play with his hand in the dirt at the 9 tech, or he will stand up and rush, like a 34 OLB. Atlanta has none, and one is needed.
-We can get to the SAM backer next. This is a hybrid type of role as well. He is known as the left standing pass rusher, but he also needs to be able to drop in coverage. This is the reason that Bruce Irvin has not really succeeded in Seattle. He is awful in coverage.
-The WILL backer can honestly be the weakest link in this defense. Since the formation is mostly a 52, he needs to be able to be a sure tackler, but his wont have to be in coverage as much as a SAM.
-I believe that the MIKE is the second most important position of this defense. He is the last line of defense. He has to diagnose, and hit holes quickly, because if he doesnt, then big gains will be found in the running game. Also, the SAM will rusht the passer a lot, and the MIKE must be able to cover the tight end, or other backs coming out.
Bottom line, the 43 Under is basically a 52 defense with some variations. We must have LBs that can cover, because our corners will be on islands for the most part. There will be a safety over the top, but the middle of the field could potentially be open.
Posted on 4/17/15 at 12:44 am to devils1854
I also totally disagree with your draft needs.
A LEO is by far and away the biggest need of this club. We havent been able to rush the passer in years, and we have no one that can right now. We have to help our good secondary out somehow.
ILB has the be the second biggest need. Worrilow is a stat stuffer, and is good at bringing down guys 5 yards past the line of scrimmage. He also has no lateral quickness, and cannot defend any receiver, which is crucial in the new under defense.
I would say that offensive line is next. There should only be two spots set, and that is Matthews at LT, and Asamoah at RG. Other than that, all three positions can be upgraded. Schroeder and Stone gave really small sample sizes this past year, and I would not be comfortable handing them starting positions out of the gate in 2015.
I would probably go with RB fourth. Both Freeman and Smith do not have looks of guys that can consistently handle 15+ carries a game, and we have to have balance on the offense. Just getting someone that can carry the ball 10 times a game on the second day would be huge for this offense.
Tight End also has to be addressed. Toilolo is a blocking TE. Nothing more. Jacob Tamme has never caught more than 30 balls without Peyton. Moeaki has not been healthy in three years, and is probably nothing more than camp depth, unless he can show that he is healthy. I could see us taking Maxx Williams in the second if he was there. We will draft someone.
After that, you can go a lot of places. Leonard Hankerson is slotted in as the slot receiver, but he has been injured for the past couple of years, and we could always find someone to groom. Depth at the offensive line could always be used. I like our starters along the defensive line, but Babs is not aging well, so depth could be needed. Alford has not been consistent at all, and a fourth corner could be needed. Godfrey looks to be the FS, unless Ishmael gives him a look, if Moore is healthy, but Southward will be moved come training camp, so depth could be needed.
A LEO is by far and away the biggest need of this club. We havent been able to rush the passer in years, and we have no one that can right now. We have to help our good secondary out somehow.
ILB has the be the second biggest need. Worrilow is a stat stuffer, and is good at bringing down guys 5 yards past the line of scrimmage. He also has no lateral quickness, and cannot defend any receiver, which is crucial in the new under defense.
I would say that offensive line is next. There should only be two spots set, and that is Matthews at LT, and Asamoah at RG. Other than that, all three positions can be upgraded. Schroeder and Stone gave really small sample sizes this past year, and I would not be comfortable handing them starting positions out of the gate in 2015.
I would probably go with RB fourth. Both Freeman and Smith do not have looks of guys that can consistently handle 15+ carries a game, and we have to have balance on the offense. Just getting someone that can carry the ball 10 times a game on the second day would be huge for this offense.
Tight End also has to be addressed. Toilolo is a blocking TE. Nothing more. Jacob Tamme has never caught more than 30 balls without Peyton. Moeaki has not been healthy in three years, and is probably nothing more than camp depth, unless he can show that he is healthy. I could see us taking Maxx Williams in the second if he was there. We will draft someone.
After that, you can go a lot of places. Leonard Hankerson is slotted in as the slot receiver, but he has been injured for the past couple of years, and we could always find someone to groom. Depth at the offensive line could always be used. I like our starters along the defensive line, but Babs is not aging well, so depth could be needed. Alford has not been consistent at all, and a fourth corner could be needed. Godfrey looks to be the FS, unless Ishmael gives him a look, if Moore is healthy, but Southward will be moved come training camp, so depth could be needed.
Posted on 4/17/15 at 12:53 am to devils1854
My dream draft:
1.Alvin Dupree, LEO, Kentucky
2.Stephone Anthony, MLB, Clemson
3.Clive Walford, TE, Miami
4.David Johnson, RB, Northern Iowa
5.Xavier Cooper, DT, Washington State
6.Stefon Diggs, WR, Maryland
7.Shaq Mason, OG, Georgia Tech
7.Wayne Lyons, CB/S, Stanford
1.Alvin Dupree, LEO, Kentucky
2.Stephone Anthony, MLB, Clemson
3.Clive Walford, TE, Miami
4.David Johnson, RB, Northern Iowa
5.Xavier Cooper, DT, Washington State
6.Stefon Diggs, WR, Maryland
7.Shaq Mason, OG, Georgia Tech
7.Wayne Lyons, CB/S, Stanford
Posted on 4/17/15 at 8:04 am to GhostofCrowell
The weed thing doesn't concern me with Gregory nearly as much as the whole "tape doesn't match the tools/talent" does. He has giant red flags in my opinion.
If Beasley is there at 8, the Falcons should take less than 10 seconds to send the pick in. Take AJ Cann from USCe in the second round and Nick O'Leary from FSU (yes, I know he had a slow combine) in the third.
If Beasley is there at 8, the Falcons should take less than 10 seconds to send the pick in. Take AJ Cann from USCe in the second round and Nick O'Leary from FSU (yes, I know he had a slow combine) in the third.
Posted on 4/17/15 at 12:04 pm to devils1854
quote:
The 43 under is not a typical 43 defense. It is pretty much a hybrid 34.
It's still technically a 4-3 base because there's 4 down and 3 up.
I'm not sure why you're trying so hard to sound contradictory when much of what you've said has been the same as me, but you just went into specific details about positions.
Here's Quinn's defense:
Cliff Avril is #56 in the 9-tech with his hand in the dirt (circled). He's 6'3 260, fast, and really strong.
Beasley is a 6'3 250 and runs a 4.53 and clocked the best 10-yard time of all DE/OLB's. He also had the best bench, long jump, 3-cone shuttle, and 2nd best vert. He also played at 265 lbs while at Clemson and dropped 20 lbs just for the combine. It's a pretty safe bet he could easily get back to 260.
I would take Dupree too, but he's not your Cliff Avril clone like Beasley is. Dupree is 6'4 270, which means he'll be at least 280 at playing weight. He's fast though and has hops and a quick 10-yard, so he's going to be good. Honestly you can't go wrong with either of these guys. Dupree was my 3rd choice behind Fowler and Beasley.
quote:
-The left end plays the 5 technique, just like a end in the 34 defense. This is where Tyson Jackson made all his money in Kansas City.
This is where we need a Michael Bennett clone. The guy's on our roster who have the potential of meeting this are Cliff Matthews, Malliciah Goodman, and Adrian Clayborn. Tyson Jackson is 300 lbs and needs to lose some weight if he's going to play LDE, or he needs to gain 10 lbs and play the 3-tech. I actually like Goodman here the best. The kid has freakishly long arms and the biggest hands on a human I've ever seen (36.5" arms and 11.5" hands). Just to give you a comparison, Eric Armstead, who's 6'7 (3" taller than Goodman) has 33" arms and 10.5" hands.
quote:
-You then have the 1 tech, which is basically a 34 NT, and hey, thats exactly what Soliai is, and hopefully Dan Quinn wont play him wrong, like Nolan did.
Except Soliai has about 50 lbs on Tony McDaniel and doesn't get near the inside pressure that McDaniel does. This guy is supposed to command 2 OL's, but unfortunately Soliai doesn't anymore. He was man-handled last year by single blockers all season. Babineaux or even Tyson Jackson with some added weight might be a better 1-tech fit. Or, we simply draft someone here.
quote:
-Next is the 3 tech. Ive read that it is the most important position on the field, because this player must get pressure on the guard for the defense to work. This is the spot that Brandon Mebane has dominated for the past half decade.
And this is where Hageman fits. He's a freak of nature athlete. 315 lbs and super quick with ridiculous vertical along with being 6'6 and having long arms (length). Once this kid learns WTF he's really supposed to be doing, he's going to be a beast. And I feel much better knowing that Quinn has ahold of this kid now. Babs and Jackson can play the 3-tech as well. Babineaux has been playing this all his career, but I think he might be more suited for the 1-tech in Quinn's defense.
quote:
We can get to the SAM backer next. This is a hybrid type of role as well. He is known as the left standing pass rusher, but he also needs to be able to drop in coverage. This is the reason that Bruce Irvin has not really succeeded in Seattle. He is awful in coverage.
And this is why we signed Brooks Reed. Biermann is also plenty athletic enough to play here too. Both can run and cover very well, and would match up well against TE's in the 2nd layer. Nolan was using the undersized WILL and MIKE backers to guard TE's and that was one of his biggest mistakes. Quinn should fix this with his man-press and bringing up the SS to help cover that second layer.
quote:
-The WILL backer can honestly be the weakest link in this defense. Since the formation is mostly a 52, he needs to be able to be a sure tackler, but his wont have to be in coverage as much as a SAM
And this is Justin Durant and Prince Shembo. We will get more pass rush out of these guys if they don't have to concentrate on coverage as much. Plus, they will greatly help stuff the run from the middle to the weak side. Nolan often left this exposed and teams tore us up as a result.
quote:
-I believe that the MIKE is the second most important position of this defense. He is the last line of defense. He has to diagnose, and hit holes quickly, because if he doesnt, then big gains will be found in the running game. Also, the SAM will rusht the passer a lot, and the MIKE must be able to cover the tight end, or other backs coming out.
Worrilow has been working his arse off this off-season from what has been said. But, like I already said too, he was rated very bad by PFF at this position. I agree it's a priority as well. But, if Quinn can get our DL and other LB's working properly and in the correct positions, plus utilizing more of a man-press will allow safeties to help more too, then Worrilow might just be fine here. He is a solid tackler and I'm sure he's getting better with experience. He actually reminds me a lot of Bobby Wagner. It's just Worrilow has been on an island in the middle in Nolan's defense with little help. Quinn should remedy this and Worrilow might just be the guy if that happens.
Posted on 4/17/15 at 12:37 pm to BeefDawg
Not Falcons draft news but an interesting tweet on a Dawg prospect...
quote:
Matt Miller
@nfldraftscout
If an NFL team hires me in the next two weeks, my late-round QB sleeper pick would be Georgia's Huston Mason. His deep ball accuracy is wow
1:04 PM - 17 Apr 2015
Posted on 4/17/15 at 12:46 pm to devils1854
quote:
I also totally disagree with your draft needs.
LOL, how do you "totally disagree" when you just listed all the same things I did, except TE and Safety?
quote:
A LEO is by far and away the biggest need of this club.
It's more of a 1a and 1b need for us with RB.
As I said, we only have Freeman and Smith at RB right now. How could this not be at the very least a tie for our biggest need? We can't go in to this season with a 2nd year RB and a 5th-year situational RB coming off a broken leg and nothing else.
I also said the trend is to pick up a RB in the later rounds, which is what we'll do. 4th-5th round sounds about right. And in fact, we may draft two RB's before it's over.
As a result, I said that the LEO is who we take at #8. It is also probably just as big a need as RB is. Hence, why I said we would be drafting this first. And again, I believe Beasley fits here, mostly because Fowler will surely be gone by our pick. IF by some miracle Fowler is still there, then he's a no-brainer. But he won't be and Beasley should be. Although if he's not, then I agree Bud Dupree is also worthy of the #8 pick, although we might be able to trade back a few spots and still get him there while picking up another draft pick somewhere.
quote:
I would say that offensive line is next. There should only be two spots set, and that is Matthews at LT, and Asamoah at RG. Other than that, all three positions can be upgraded. Schroeder and Stone gave really small sample sizes this past year, and I would not be comfortable handing them starting positions out of the gate in 2015.
I agree that we could use an upgrade at RT, but we only have so many picks in the draft. And who's going to start at LG? Mike Person? Peter Konz? Sam Baker?
Schraeder graded out positive in the last 8 games of the season last year. We're not drafting a RT before a DE, RB, LG, FS, or ILB. And I seriously doubt some 6th or 7th round OL pick is going to step in and take Schraeder's job.
And we aren't drafting another center. Stone only allowed 2 QB hits, 2 hurries, and ZERO sacks in 12 starts last year after Hawley went down in game 4 against Minn. And you don't think he's got the job after that performance in 12 games???
C'mon man. That's ridiculous. Hawley may compete, but we all know how long it takes to come back from an ACL tear unless you're AP. Stone is our center right now. We're not drafting 3 OL's.
quote:
Tight End also has to be addressed. Toilolo is a blocking TE. Nothing more. Jacob Tamme has never caught more than 30 balls without Peyton. Moeaki has not been healthy in three years, and is probably nothing more than camp depth, unless he can show that he is healthy. I could see us taking Maxx Williams in the second if he was there. We will draft someone.
I just don't see the rationale for this making sense. You don't bring in 2 FA TE's AND draft another one high.
The roster is 53 people and 45 dress for games. Do you really think we're going to have TE's taking up 4 of those spots? No way.
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